The three major airlines resumed direct Sino -British voyage, and the fuse mechanism was relaxed. Can the volume of international flights in the second half of the year increase?

China's international route recovery is still in a preliminary stage.

In August 2022, Air China, China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, and Southern Airlines successively resumed direct flights to London.

Since August 11, Air China will resume Beijing-London flights; Southern Airlines plans to resume Guangzhou-London flights from August 17th, one round trip every week. This is China Southern Airlines this year. The announcement announced that it will resume the implementation of international passenger flights from Shanghai Pudong-London-London-London on August 12; the first flight plan will restore international flights in Qingdao-London on August 19.

On August 10, the British Embassy in China announced that the British Ministry of Transport and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have officially reached a consensus to restore two -way direct flight passenger services between Britain and China. The initial passenger service will be provided by Chinese airlines, and the restoration of the British airline's routes is still ongoing.

In May of this year, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that it will increase domestic and international passenger flights, formulate measures for convenient foreign companies, and the opportunity to recover from international routes. According to the data of the airline, the traffic in China continued to rise, and the number of passengers of the domestic airlines of domestic airlines was about 150,000, an increase of nearly 29%from the previous month.

However, based on the situation of global civil aviation recovery, China's international route recovery is still in a preliminary stage.

Flight butler data pointed out that in July, Turkey and European and American countries mostly exceeded the same period in 2019, but China's international flight recovery rate (recovery rate = current flight volume ÷ the same period of 2019) was low. From the perspective of China -US round -trip flights, the US -China flight recovery rate is only 3.0%, and the recovery rate of Chinese -American flights is only 3.3%. The recovery rate is only single.

Caption: The vertical coordinates are departure, and the horizontal coordinates are the destination

In addition to the recovery of international routes, the adjustment of the "melting" mechanism of entry flights is also stimulating the recovery nerves.

On August 7, the Civil Aviation Administration released the "Optimization and Adjustment of International Term Terminal Flights". The adjusted melting measures are: when the proportion of passengers accurate passengers reaches 4%of the number of entry passengers in the flight, the operation is suspended for 1 week; when the proportion of passengers accurate passengers reaches 8%of the number of passengers in the flight, the operation is suspended for 2 weeks. The amount of fuse flight shall not be adjusted for other routes.

The civil aviation industry, Lin Zhijie, analyzed the First Financial Analysis: First, the fuse threshold was relaxed from 5 cases per class to 4%, that is, about 10 cases of Boeing 787 aircraft, about 15 cases of Boeing 777; the second is the fusion cycle To shorten, these two adjustments will reduce the number of flights to the flight and help international flight recovery.

In the previous June, the Civil Aviation Administration also adjusted the "melting" rules of the flight. It triggered the fuse from the original flight within one week of landing, and the fuse was triggered within 5 days of the flight landing.

Before the melting adjustment of the above two flights, the interruption of international regular passenger flights was implemented in accordance with the "Notice on the Trial of the Trial of the Trial of the Meltry Measures for International Term Terminal Flights" issued on April 28, 2021.

According to the data of the flight butler, from June 2020 to the end of July 2022, the international entry fuse flight volume was 1963 (excluding awarded flights, the same latter), and the amount of fuse flights for the fuse of 1247 at the end of July, accounting for 63.5%, exceeding more than 63.5%, exceeding more The sum of the first two years.

The top three of the total number of flight melting are Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines. This has the most international flight volume because the three major airlines have undertaken the number of international flights; Domestic aircraft's epidemic prevention effect is better than overseas airlines. Among them, Xiamen Airlines has a permeable ratio of only 2.5%, and Russian Airlines ranks first with 43.7%melting. In addition, the number of flights to the UAE ’s flight is as high as 315 days.

Flight butler pointed out that from June 2020 to July 2022, in international navigation countries, there are only 13 countries with more than 500 flights, two in South Korea and Japan, and average daily entry exceeding 3 times; Among the international entry flights, 47%of flights from Shanghai and Guangzhou are 47%, and the domestic TOP 10 entry point accounts for 81%of entry flights.

In the TOP 10 entry point, Guangzhou's fuse flight volume is the highest. So far, the fuse flight exceeds 500 flights, accounting for 28%of the total melting flight, and the fuse ratio is 12.5%; Other entry points.

It is worth mentioning that the "New Coronatte Virus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Plan (9th Edition)" released by the National Health and Health Commission on June 28 pointed out that entry personnel from "14 days of centralized isolation medical observation+7 Heavenly Home Health Monitoring" adjustment "adjustment" adjustment To "7 days of centralized isolation medical observation+3 Heavenly House Health Monitoring".

A few days ago, Hong Kong's entry isolation policy has also been adjusted. According to Hong Kong media reports, starting from August 12, Hong Kong will launch a "3+4" plan, that is, the mandatory quarantine arrangement of people from overseas regions will be changed to 3 days of hotel quarantine plus 4 days of home medical monitoring, which means The "3+4" solution will replace the seven -day scheme in quarantine hotels.

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