WTTC expects that China's tourism industry will increase 30 million positions in the next ten years. Is it blind and optimistic?

WTTC is expected to reach 83 million in 2023.

The World Tourism Council (WTTC) recently released data, and it is expected that China's tourism industry will increase more than 30 million jobs in the next ten years, accounting for a quarter of the number of new employment in the global tourism industry.

Earlier, WTTC expects that the European tourism industry will create 8 million jobs in the next ten years. If this caliber, the new posts of China's tourism industry within the same period are almost 4 times that of the entire European region.

In other words, according to WTTC's forecast, China's tourism industry will increase 3 million new positions each year. By the end of 2032, the number of Chinese tourism practitioners will exceed 107 million.

But is this prediction really fit the actual trend?

01

WTTC is expected to be employed next year

It will exceed the level of 2019

According to the data of WTTC, China's tourism industry's contribution to the economy in the next ten years will achieve an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, which is more than double the overall economic growth (4.4%). one.

According to this growth rate, by the end of 2032, the revenue created by China's tourism industry will exceed 25.2 trillion yuan.

The report predicts that by the end of 2023, the tourism industry's contribution to the Chinese economy will exceed 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 32%year -on -year. At the same time, it will exceed the level before the epidemic, and it is expected to increase by nearly 10%.

WTTC believes that the number of Chinese tourism employment will also exceed the level of 2019 next year, with a new job of 766,000 jobs, reaching 83 million.

However, WTTC also warns that China can achieve the expected goals only by continuously promoting the development of domestic and international tourism business.

02

China's tourism industry's contribution to GDP decreases by 62.5%

WTTC Chairman and CEO Julia Simpson said that the development prospects of the tourism industry in the next ten years are very broad, but in the short term, the world's allocators, including Asian countries, are opening the border, and China has not comprehensively relaxed restrictions.

China's domestic tourism industry has eased economic pressure to a certain extent and will maintain driving force in the future, but the current international tourism income is still very low, and this part is very important for the overall economy of China.

Simpson also said that shortening isolation time is a good thing for international passengers, but it is not enough to have a greater impact on the entire tourism industry.

Data from WTTC shows that China's tourism industry has a high development in 2019, and international passenger consumption is close to 951 billion yuan, accounting for 14%of China's domestic consumption. In 2021, due to strict epidemic prevention in China, international passenger spending was less than 91 billion yuan, accounting for 3%, and annual consumption decreased by 862 billion yuan.

Before the epidemic, China's tourism industry contributed more than 11.9 trillion yuan to GDP, accounting for 11.6%. In 2020, the number dropped to 4.5 trillion yuan, accounting for only 4.3%, a decrease of 62.5%.

03

The gap between WTTC statistics and public data is very large

WTTC said that China's tourism industry provided more than 82 million jobs before the epidemic, but under the epidemic, the number of tourism employment in 2020 fell to 69 million, a decrease of 12 million; in 2021, it rose, exceeding 73 million.

However, according to the data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of Chinese tourism practitioners is quite different from the forecast of WTTC.

According to the "Basic Situation of the Tourism Market in 2018" released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the comprehensive contribution of the national tourism industry to GDP in 2018 was 9.94 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.04%of the total GDP. Tourism is 28.26 million, and the tourism is directly and indirectly employed 79.91 million, accounting for 10.29%of the country's total employment population.

According to the basic situation of the tourism market in 2019, the comprehensive contribution of China's tourism industry to GDP in 2019 was 1.094 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.05%of the total GDP. Tourism direct employment was 28.25 million, and the tourism and indirect employment were 79.87 million, accounting for 10.31%of the country's total employment population. Compared with 2018, the number of tourism employment does not rise and fall.

Regardless of which statistical caliber comparison, the actual employment of China's tourism industry and WTTC are expected to have a large gap.

On the one hand, the total scale and trend of employment number is worthy of our attention. On the other hand, in recent years, the trend and focus of tourism companies' needs of various types of talents have also shown some characteristics.

The proportion of vertical classification of Journey to the recruitment position (rough calculation

Judging from the tourism industry recruitment data of the community service platform of Global Travel News: In the past year, the recruitment needs of hotel/accommodation companies have been the highest, almost half of the OTA and hotel technology, which account for 16 %And 12%.

Recently, the American Hotel and Accommodation Associations are also vigorously promoting the recruitment plan to fill more than 130,000 positions. A recent survey released by the association shows that 97%of the hotels interviewed are facing the problem of personnel shortage, and 49%of hotels indicate a serious shortage. In order to solve the problem of employment, hotels have launched reward plans, of which 90%of the hotels have raised salary increase, 71%of hotels have improved the flexibility of working time, and 43%of hotels give additional benefits.

The growth of passenger demand is one aspect. After experiencing the epidemic creation, the tourism practitioners or those who may enter the tourism industry will still be confident in the development of the tourism industry as before the epidemic.The answer may be another matter.Reference materials:

1. China ’s Travel & Tourism Section More than 30 Million Jobs Over the Next Decade. (WTTC)

2. Basic situation of the tourism market in 2018. (Ministry of Cultural Tourism)

3. Basic situation of the tourism market in 2019. (Ministry of Cultural Tourism)

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