Earn 1.3 trillion rubles!Five months of war, Russia and the United States make a big profit?

Author of "Military Bills" Author: L-Team

From the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has obviously entered a long -lasting consumption model. In this war model, in addition to the combat skills of the frontline officers and soldiers, the two sides are also the "family" and will of both sides.

The so -called "one cannon sounds, gold and two thousand", in the modern war, this is not an exaggerated description. Now the large number of advanced weapons and equipment consumed by Russia and Ukraine at the front line are hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. For the price unit.

▲ Each of the destroyed modern tanks, the cost is millions of dollars

With Russia's general mobilization of war and fully transferring the national economy into the track of the war, its economic and fiscal conditions have become an important indicator of the victory and defeat of the war. Can't beat anymore.

For example, the United States withdrew from Vietnam and the Soviet Union with Afghanistan. In fact, it was not defeated by the enemy on the battlefield. In terms of combat effectiveness, the U.S. troops against the Vietnam Army and the Soviets to Afghanistan were "crushed". The fundamental reason why the two major powers chose to withdraw their troops regardless of the face of the great power is that the economic situation of its country can no longer tolerate the high quota.

▲ Neither the U.S. military or the Soviet army, they can not be regarded as a defeat.

It has been a few months since the Russian and Ukraine War, but in some data newspapers, the United States and Russia have made a lot of money. Is this war not only let Russia lose money, but also earn it?

First look at the data released by the US Treasury. According to Reuters, the total financial revenue of the United States in April 2022 was about 850 billion US dollars, with a total expenditure of about 550 billion yuan, and surplus of more than 300 billion U.S. dollars! (About 2 trillion yuan)

You know, since 2019, US fiscal revenue has been in the deficit because the epidemic has been in the deficit, that is, negative numbers, and there is no surplus at all. In January 2022, the surplus surplus was 100 billion yuan. Historical records over the years.

Therefore, some people think that the United States has made a great fortune of war while the United States. However, mid -April is the deadline for tax returns in the United States. Most U.S. citizens and units will pay personal income tax this month. The US fiscal revenue is high in April each year, but it is not high this year.

▲ Russia earned up to earn energy in the first half of the year

Look at Russia. In July, the Russian Ministry of Finance made public data. The fiscal revenue from January to June 2022 was 14 trillion rubles, of which the oil and gas income was 6.37 trillion rubles, and the non-oil and gas income was 7.64 trillion rubles.

If the 1.264 trillion rubles expenditted from January to June, Russia's surplus in the first half of the year was 1.37 trillion rubles (about 162.4 billion yuan). This is not a small number. Russia does make a profit.

Good guy, after a few months, how did Russia earn 1.3 trillion rubles? If so, Russia has been fighting for war. Will the United States and Russia really make a lot of money by the Russian and Ukraine War?

Why does Russia look a lot of money, where did this money come from?

Russia is known as a country pretending to be a gas station. The most important thing is that it is still energy revenue and almost reaches half of the national income. The British Guardian reported at the end of April that during the two months of the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, energy prices soared all the way, and the price of Russia's sales of fossil fuels to the EU was doubled.

In the first two months, Russia's oil and gas and coal revenue revenue about 62 billion euros, of which the European Union spent 44 billion euros (about 300 billion yuan). It only cost 140 billion euros to buy energy.

In the third month of the war, Russia's energy revenue soared to 93 billion euros, of which the EU contributed 57 billion euros. In just 100 days, Russian energy revenue has reached 40%of the year in 2021. And according to Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, more than 90%of EU energy users have agreed to use ruble settlement.

Therefore, from the perspective of fiscal revenue, Russia has really made a lot of money in the past few months, and the more they are richer.

However, the war account cannot be judged from the short -term surplus of a few months, because the cost and subsequent impact of war have not been calculated. Let ’s talk about whether Russia has made in detail or lost it:

Russia's war loss and cost

Although Russia ’s overall wars will still be very tough, it is undeniable that Western developed countries’ groups are not “itchy” on Russia ’s more than 7,000 sanctions on Russia.

After the Russian Lightning Occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the financial war broke out between Russia and Western countries. This "financial war" not only brought economic pain to Russia, but also in fact. I gave Russia a "prevention vaccine" in advance.

▲ The Crimean crisis in 2014 deeply changed the world situation

From an unfavorable side, after 2014, Western countries' economic sanctions imposed on Russia have effectively interrupted the original good Russian economic growth momentum. The current Russian GDP ranking has completely fallen out of the top ten throne in the world. The specific amount was only about 1.65 trillion US dollars in 2021, and it was even less than that of my country's GDP ranked second in Jiangsu Province (Jiangsu 2021 GDP was about 1.7 trillion US dollars). ▲ The Russian GDP data given by the World Bank, 2014 is an obvious watershed

From a favorable side, Russia has been working hard to accumulate economic strength and countermeasures in 2014 to meet the economic strength and countermeasures in 2014 to cope with Western sanctions.

As of the outbreak of this war, Russia reserved a total of about $ 630 billion in foreign exchange, accumulating a gold reserves worth about $ 132 billion, which was almost doubled compared to 2014. The various strategic materials "family bottoms" accumulated in these years are also one of the reasons why Russia dares to war.

However, although Russia has been working hard in the eight years since 2014, it has been working hard, but in this war, Russia still suffer quite serious internal injuries.

The first is the direct loss on the battlefield, because the "flash war" of the Russian army in the first stage of the war has not achieved success, which caused the war operation to enter the second phase of war consumption model, which made the Russian army pay a lot of " Plan outside costs ".

▲ The sinking Moscow missile cruiser can not be supplemented in the short term.

So far, the Russian tank damage based on the open source intelligence has exceeded 840 vehicles. Even if the exaggerated description and repeated statistics of the West have been deducted, the number of tanks of the Russian coalition tanks is still hundreds of hundreds of. The cost is millions of dollars. You can exchange how much money you lose. These equipment can be the military property accumulated by Russia for decades.

▲ Orex statistics of the Lost of the Russian vehicle vehicle vehicles

Although there were many tank inventory with a large number of Soviet heritage Russia, before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the number of active tanks had only about 2,700 in the Russian army that had repeatedly reforms and disarmed. According to the U.S. military's assessment, the Russian army lost about 20%-30%of mechanized equipment on the battlefield of Russia.

These real war losses, whether it is replenishment through the reproduction or the old equipment of the inventory of the inventory, it takes real gold and silver to do it. Otherwise, after the Russian and Urotic War, the Russian army did not have enough strength to deal with the next war.

▲ Recently, the tank group lost in a certain offensive of the Russian army, despite the absolute advantage of occupying troops and firepower, the cost of hard -fled the Ukraine's defense line is still relatively large.

According to statistics, the daily battle for the Russian army in April was about 2.1 billion rubles (about 2.4 billion yuan). It can be said that Russia has been burning rapidly at a speed of RMB 100 million per hour since the war. According to this number, in 5 months, the war alone burned 360 billion yuan, and it was 3 trillion yuan to convert it into rubles.

Compared with the loss of equipment on the battlefield, the Russian army's loss in personnel is relatively painful. As of early July, there were more than 4,500 Russian soldiers who had clear evidence of death (讣 or cemetery). (The number of Russian troops evaluated by Western and other national intelligence agencies is generally around 20-40,000 people, because there is no evidence, so they will not accept it here.) The number of killed personnel is at a level of thousands of levels. Therefore, as of now, the number of killed personnel of the Russian Alliance should be close to 10,000, which is proper.

In this war, in order to maintain the morale of the Russian army participating in the battlefield on the battlefield, the Russian government has issued a relatively good officer and soldiers. According to the current public information, every Russian soldiers killed in the war can get Russia The central government's 7 million rubles of the one -time compensation. In addition, the local government where the soldiers are located will also pay an additional pension of 5 million rubles. By the 12 million rubles (about 1.28 million yuan).

▲ At present, a ruble is about 0.11 RMB

In addition to a one -time pension, there will be other comfort and related preferential treatment to their families. Each injured Russian soldier can receive a one -time pension of 3 million rubles (except for one -time compensation, the wounded soldiers are followed by every follow There are also pensions for a month).

In order to make up for the insufficient manpower of the front line of the Russian army, the Russian government has also issued a relatively good "short -term contract recruitment plan" in China. Each short -term contract soldier (6 months in service period) can get 200,000 rubles after signing the contract, which can get 200,000 rubles. The one -time bonus and the monthly salary of 250,000 rubles (about 26,500/month) per month (about RMB 26,500/month) is very attractive for some backward regions in Russia.

▲ The Russian military recruitment poster circulating on the Internet

Compared to the "overall battle" of the world war level, such a number of deaths is naturally "hairy rain". At best, it is the amount of medium -sized campaign, which cannot hurt Russia's bones. However, compared to the local war of the small nations, such war loss has been hit less than 5 months, it is actually quite painful.

Taking the Soviet War of the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan as an example, during the 9 -year -old Soviet War, the total number of Soviets was only about 14,400. Obviously, the loss efficiency of the Russian and Ukraine war far exceeds other local wars. After all, Ukraine has a huge modern army instead of the miscellaneous military comparison of Afghanistan, the Middle East and other countries.

The equipment and personnel that the Russian army fell on the battlefield was only a direct loss in the war. Outside the battlefield, the total economic loss of Russian society was also very considerable. Although Russia had already been in many aspects in many aspects in the 8 years before the war. The preparation for countermeasures can be made by the economic and financial aspects of the Western developed countries, and it is inevitable that huge loss and economic atrophy.

▲ 300 billion US dollars, for Russia, who has worked hard, is a huge sum of money.

After this round of sanctions, in addition to a large number of frozen overseas assets and financial losses, Russia, the entire economic market, even if the most optimistic estimate of the Russian central bank, has to shrink about 8%and usher in negative GDP growth for a period of time.

In the face of the overall shrinking of the economic market, the fiscal surplus of the 1 trillion ruble before was not enough to supplement.

▲ The screenshot reported from the Xinhua News Agency on June 12 that Russia's inflation rate has reached about 16%

Such an economic blow, if it is a country with a large volume, is already crumbling. However, for Russia, fortunately, Russia is self -sufficient in both the two most vital aspects of energy and food, and can earn foreign exchange through a large number of resource exports, and to Europe that rely on Russian oil and gas resources to rely on Russian oil and gas resources The state exerts pressure.

Energy market fluctuations on Russia

Due to the great land and the exterior, the changes in the international energy market have a profound impact on Russia's economy. As far as the current energy market is concerned, it is "happy and worried" for Russia.

It is a favorite that the successful war has successfully increased the prices of large commodities such as energy, allowing Russia's income in these areas, without increasing, and successful blood.

According to the World Bank's "Outlook for the Commodity Market", energy prices in 2022 will rise by more than 50%. Among them, crude oil will increase by more than 40%compared to 2021, and natural gas prices in Europe will double, and coal will rise by 80%. In addition, metal and food will also increase price, metal rose 16%, and wheat rose 40%.

▲ Screenshot comes from the World Bank Report on the United Nations Website

The income of Russia's exports of commodities such as energy sources has increased because of this.

According to Bloomberg's estimates, due to the rise in energy prices, Russia's oil and natural gas sales this year will be pushed to $ 285 billion, which will be about 20%higher than the US $ 235.6 billion in 2021. For oil and gas, Russia can earn about $ 800 million in income every day. These income has also become an important help for Russia to go on.

▲ Bloomberg report

After speaking, one aspect of "joy" for Russia, let's talk about the "worry" aspect of Russia, because of the combination of the joint resistance of Western countries and other oil and gas export countries to expand exports and grab the Russian market, etc. Function, Russia's total exports of oil and gas resources are declining.

▲ Excerpt from China Petroleum Center

According to Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd., Russia's total natural gas exports to the former Soviet Union this year (January-May) have decreased by 27.6%compared to the same period last year. According to a report released by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development in May, the export volume of oil products in Russia this year will decrease by 20%, natural gas exports will decrease by 10%, and only liquefied natural gas exports will increase by 5.5%. (Compared to the predictions of Western agencies, the Russian government's prediction must be more optimistic)

▲ According to the official announcement of Russia, the total exports this year are not optimistic

The decline in total exports means that many traditional Russian oil and gas customers are turning to other sellers. Once the price of oil will fall, Russia's income will decline significantly, which is indeed a hidden worry on the future of Russia.

Although the oil and gas are good, it is not a panacea

For Russia, oil and gas resources are always the invincible cards in international competition. Rich natural resources determine how Russia can maintain the basic market of the country, and at least the life can always live.

However, for a country that is determined to become a strong country, although oil and gas resources are good, it is not a panacea. "Oil and gas resources" said that wearing a country is a means of "supporting the bottom", it cannot increase the core competitiveness of the country.

▲ Once lying on the oil and gas is too comfortable, it may not be a good thing for the long -term development of the country.

Due to the high concentration of the energy industry, the benefits it generates can easily only fatten the "oligopers" who master resources, and it is difficult to benefit every civilian in society.

After the outbreak of the war, Russia's largest coal company "Siberian Coal Energy Company", a major shareholder of Andrei Milini, a luxury yacht under the name of the family name of Italy, was detained by Italy. The total length of 142.81 meters and the amazing drainage of 12,558 tons (this tonnage is almost consistent with the sinking black sea fleet flagship "Moscow"), with a price of about 578 million US dollars.

▲ Sailing Boat A, the Russian army may not be able to build a cruiser of 10,000 tons, but Russian rich people can afford 10,000 tons of yachts like Andre Meliniko. There are many. Their yachts are very good from the perspective of aesthetics. They can even be said to be beautiful. In terms of oligopoly, this is of course enough to make them proud, but for the Russian nation? Obviously not a good thing.

Russian large oil and gas companies, although the energy products exported to the West, can sell a considerable amount in any case, but rely on these large oil and gas companies alone, obviously cannot solve the employment and development of most Russian civilians.

Russia's energy is hard currency, and the products of ordinary Russian factories and companies are not. Strict blockade and financial sanctions have seriously crack down on the competitiveness of ordinary Russian companies in the international market. Russia's future competitiveness will be lost.

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, many Russian civilians felt real pressure. In my country's video website B station B, there were many UPs from Russia. In the information they shared, what impressed me most was the sanctions on drugs and medical products in Western countries.

▲ The opinion of Russia shared by UP master in terms of drugs was sanctioned

Many key medicines and medical devices used by the Russian people and even the animals are usually imported to the West. After the sanctions start, many key drugs are not short of or soaring. It had a very serious impact.

Because other sanctions are actually good to say that most of them can tolerate or find the "flat replacement scheme". For example, Apple mobile phones in the United States cannot buy it, then you can buy a Chinese Xiaomi or Huawei mobile phone, but key drugs can Lack of is absolutely unbearable and unable to replace, because there is no death at any time.

Many drugs and senior medical consumables are produced by a few large Western companies, including other countries, including China ... In Russia's public opinion surveys, the lack of imported medical products is also the most worried confidant of the Russian people.

▲ In the long run, the Russian people must be sad

The simple summary is that the sanctions of Western countries cannot allow the Russians to "starve to death" or make the Russians "freeze to death", but they can make many Russians "sick and have no doctor".

How the Russian government should bring the income brought by oil and gas exports, while maintaining the war, converting into a real benefit to ordinary people in Russia in order to help them pass the difficulties in sanctions, it will be a test of the current Russian government. problem……

Once the support of the public is left, no matter how powerful the war machine is, it is difficult to maintain it.

Russia is not good, and the West is not good

As mentioned earlier, there are so many losses that Russia suffered because of this war. Let ’s talk about the losses suffered by the Western camp. Ukraine will not be mentioned, and its economy has long collapsed. The reason why it can persist to this day, relying on the fiscal blood transfusion of the United States and Britain and other countries.

In order to support Ukraine to continue, the United States and Britain and other countries must "money" in Ukraine every week. In addition to a large number of arms materials, there are mass cash support.

▲ The United States, the United Kingdom, and Poland have become the top three in the military aid of Ukraine

In addition to providing weapons support, European countries near the front line also accepted about 4 million Ukrainian refugees. The cost of living and public security of these refugees was paid by local society.

▲ Picture source, United Morning Post

In addition to directly supporting the cost of war in Ukraine, the rising prices and supply caused by sanctions caused by Russia have also allowed Western society to bear unprecedented high inflation (prices soaring). In order to call on everyone to reduce energy consumption, German Deputy Prime Minister Habeck previously suggested that the public closes the windows at night to keep warm and actively reduce the indoor heating temperature. Former German President Gao Ke also said: "For freedom, we can also be frozen."

Obviously, the sanctions against Russia in Western countries are a double -edged sword. In addition to cracking down on Russia, they must also bear a large internal injury.

▲ Report from the Voice of Germany Chinese website

After the summary and analysis of reports reported earlier, it is not difficult to conclude that the impact of this war on the society of both sides is all -round. The rise and fall of a single economic indicator is not the standard for evaluating whether the war is made.

As far as the overall socio -economic account is concerned, whether it is Russia, or Ukraine and Western society, they are losing money. The people of both sides are gritting their teeth to avoid the huge costs that have been invested in the early stage.

Except for a few energy oligarchs and war traffickers, no one can make a fortune in the war!

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