Futures Weekly ｜ Economic stagflation is concerned, the domestic commodity market is under pressure, and the price of pigs "brakes" for "sudden braking"

Southern Finance All -Media reporter Weng Rongtao intern Sun Yongle Guangzhou reported

This week, the continued high inflation led to the acceleration of the tightening of liquidity in Europe and the United States. The US dollar index was innovative. The market was concerned that the global central bank's currency tightening could trigger economic recession.

During the week (July 11-July 15), European and American countries continue to be high-inflation, and the economic recession is expected to rise. All sectors of commodities have fallen to varying degrees, and multiple varieties have been severely frustrated. Among them The commodities such as threads and cotton have fallen sharply.

From the perspective of the domestic futures market, the energy chemical sector fell 13.14%within the fuel week, crude oil fell 4.44%, and LPG fell 5.77%; the black sector, iron ore plummeted by 14.63%, coke coal and coke plummeted 9.1%, respectively 9.1%, respectively. 、10.95%；有色金属板块，沪镍大跌10.8%，螺纹、沪铜分别大跌14.47%、9.29%，沪锌下跌7.46%；农产品板块，棕榈油大跌9.78%、豆油下跌2.33%，棉花Fall 13.67%, and pigs fell 7.76%.

Hot spots of trading market:

Hotspot 1: The high level of the Wenhua Commodity Index fell over 20%.

On July 13, the CRB index fell as high as 16.25%, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 20.27%. The domestic commodity market has recently showed a trend of accelerated decline. Following 8.25%in June this year, it was less than half of this month, and the decline has reached 8.27%. As of July 13, the minimum of the Wenhua Commodity Index fell to 186.99 points, and returned to the low position in early December last year.

The exponential sample covers 49 domestic products, including petrochemicals, non -ferrous metals and black products, and is an important reference indicator with the CRB index that tracks overseas products. Starting from the high point of the current rising cycle, the largest decline of the Wenhua Commodity Index has reached 20.27%. The second test of the key price of the "technical bear market" is facing the direction choice.

Jing Chuan, chief economist of CUHK Futures, believes that "the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hikes and shrinkage have just begun, and it will not stop for the time being. Even if the market has repeated in the near future, the commodities of commodities are unable to live in this position, and they will continue to fall. "The core logic Yes, the logic of the rise since March 2020 has disappeared, and the driving effect of the price of the commodity prices has been weakened.

Jingchuan said, "To be precise, from the end of March of this year, the rise of the product has ended. Now it is a bear market cycle that has entered the downlink range."

Hotspot 2: Russia plans to establish a new oil benchmark to respond to the upper limit of the western settings

At the G7 summit held at the end of last month, the United States and other countries focused on how to restrict the income of the Russian energy industry. Each member country agreed to set the upper limit of Russian oil and natural gas imports, but no specific implementation measures have been made. Earlier media reports said that the United States and its allies have discussed that Russian oil prices are limited to about $ 40 to $ 60 per barrel.

Russia will naturally not be treated. The main ministries, central banks, and petroleum manufacturers of the country plans to launch oil transactions on a national platform in October. It is reported that Russia will strive to attract foreign partners to buy oil and complete sufficient transaction volume between March and July 2023 to establish a new oil pricing benchmark.

Russian officials revealed that the country tried to ensure that it could sell oil without any external pressure or restrictions. The price limit mechanism launched by the G7 further showed that Russia needed to establish an independent oil benchmark. However, the proposal is still in the early stage, and the Russian government has not yet determined whether it is necessary to establish an additional legal framework for this.

Hotspot 3: Market emotions are pessimistic. In the past two years, Lun Tong has fallen below the $ 7,000 mark in the past two years

Drag by the stronger dollar and weak demand prospects, Lun Tong fell below the 7,000 US dollar mark on Friday, the first time in the past 20 months. Under the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, global economy, or falling into the shadow of decline, the market sentiment has continued to pessimistic, and Lunbin has fallen for several weeks. Looking forward to the future, the way of copper prices is also all over the haze.

The market has a particularly pessimistic economic prospect of the London period of more than 5%within the Fridays of the London, and as of the time of press time, it was reported at $ 6,997/ton. This is the first time that Lunbin has fallen below $ 7,000/ton since November 2020, which means that Lun Tong is expected to record the largest weekly decline in 28 months on Friday. The main contract of Shanghai Copper fell 4.05%to 53480 yuan/ton on Friday, and a cumulative decrease of 9.29%this week. As of the closing of Friday, Shanghai Copper has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Daniel Hynes, a commodity strategyist of Australia and New Bank, said that despite the continued falling price of the Copper Copper, there is no sign of indicating that the demand has declined sharply or the supply has increased. "In fact, the situation is the opposite -we are actually in China in China Seeing signs of improvement in demand. "

He believes that the decline in copper prices may be due to investors expect that the global mainstream central bank's tightening monetary policy will lead to slower economic growth. Copper has always been regarded as a leading indicator of economic health, and its continued falling decline obviously indicates that investors' negative views on global economic prospects. He said, "This shows that investors are particularly pessimistic about economic prospects." Industry policy is news:

Maintenance 1: On the eve of the third anniversary of the opening of the science and technology board, the implementation rules for the implementation of the city trading business are officially released

With the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, on July 15, the Stock Exchange of the Stock Exchange and the "Implementation Rules for the Implementation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Stocks" and the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Stock Exchange Business Guide No. 8 "Board Stocks", and will be implemented from the date of release. The notice states that the business in the "Implementation Rules" on the provision of bilateral response quotes in the city merchants will not be implemented for the time being.

Market analysis believes that the marketing merchants will need to provide bilateral continuous quotation and bilateral response quotes for science and technology board stocks, which will help broaden the business boundary between securities firms. At the same time, the introduction of market merchants is conducive to improving the liquidity and activity of the science and technology board, and it is conducive to enhancing the market's price discovery function.

Maintenance 2: Zheng Shang's first promotion of the combined margin business to help the futures market margin management model innovation

In order to further improve the quality of the city's business, promote the continuous active of contracts, and promote the implementation of the combined margin business, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a notice on July 15th to carry out a combined margin business on the market business of white sugar, PTA, methanol futures options. This is the first time that the domestic futures market has launched a portfolio margin. It is a major innovation of the futures margin. It marks the new level of my country's futures market margin management model.

Must News 3: Guangdong printing a new green finance plan, supports the futures of futures on the market for futures.

On July 13, the "Implementation Plan for the Development of Green Financial Supporting Carbon Dafeng Peak in Guangdong Province" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") was officially issued. The plan proposes to fully grasp the construction opportunities of the "double zone" and two cooperative zones, coordinate the province's green financial development and green financial security, explore the new model and new path of green low -carbon investment financing, and provide solid for Guangdong's green development and economic transformation Financial support.

Among them, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the listing of futures for the green development of electricity, silicon, lithium, etc., develop carbon financial derivatives, and serve the construction of the national carbon futures market. Relying on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to create a platform for green financial innovation, guide listed companies to actively disclose carbon emission information, and carry out product innovation such as green securities index, "environment, society and corporate governance (ESG)" evaluation system.

Looking to the performance of the market outlook:

Energy chemical sector:

Crude oil: Although the current OPEC+oil -producing countries have insufficient idle capacity, in the face of continuous high inflation compression in Europe and the United States, the prevalence of economic recession is expected to rise, and the outlook for crude oil demand has caused a sharp decline in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices this week. At present, the macro -free atmosphere is still strong, and the high inflation in Europe and the United States cannot be alleviated in the short term. The US CPI data in June is as high as 9.1%, and the June CPI data in Europe is as high as 8.6%. Continuous inflation brings the pace of accelerating liquidity tightening in European and American central banks. The significant interest rate hike will increase the expectations of the European and American economic recession, or it will force oil prices to continue to move down. Many institutions have lowered the expectations of global oil consumption this year. With the subtle transformation of international crude oil supply and demand structure, it is expected that international crude oil will maintain a weak oscillation in the future. (Baocheng Futures)

Black system:

Iron ore: The fundamental aspects of iron ore have not yet improved significantly, especially on the downstream demand side, and the active suspension of production and production of steel mills will not decrease; and under the fermentation of the "disconnection of the tide" incident, the market continues to increase the market. The pessimism of the real estate industry, or further curbing the needs of the materials, and transmitted to the iron ore demand side through negative feedback. In terms of macroeconomics, the recently announced inflation rate (9.1%) in June in the United States and the European Union raising the annual inflation rate forecast (the latest 7.6%, previous 6.1%) behavior has increased the market The expectations of the central bank's interest rate hikes may be affected again. With weak demand and the decline of overseas economy, iron ore may continue weakness. (Guotai Junan Futures)

Nonferrous metal sector:

Shanghai Nickel: The price of this week suddenly has a sharp decline in the second half of the week, with a great impact on the macro aspect. From the fundamental point of view, refining nickel is currently more domestic production, and the import of import windows has also arrived one after another to increase the supply. In terms of spot, the supply of circulation is tight, and there is a sweeping situation at low prices. From the perspective of demand, stainless steel reduces production, at the same time, nickel iron prices are low, and the demand for nickel plates in the stainless steel industry chain has decreased; in the new energy industry chain, the cost of middle products and high ice nickel is lower, and nickel bean economy is poor. Next, the performance of the new energy industry chain will still be good. It is mainly to see if the demand for stainless steel can be recovered. If the demand for stainless steel in the fourth quarter is still not good, then the support may be further tested. (Dayue Futures)

Agricultural product sector:

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