Experts interpret the "half -annual report" of the Chinese economy: the basic characteristics of endogenous growth have not changed

On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the "Half -annual report" of the Chinese economy. In the first half of the year, the GDP of 56264.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year was increased by 2.5%year -on -year. Among them, in the second quarter, the Chinese economy's upstream super -expected unexpected factors brought serious impact, and the GDP maintained growth.

“中国上半年经济增长2.5%，在超预期因素影响情况下相当不易。虽然增速下降，但仍能实现正增长，说明经济大盘稳住了、站住脚了。”中国财政科学研究院研究员、原The Deputy Dean Bai Jingming said at the China News Agency "China is the Forum: 2022 Analysis of the China Economic Situation".

Data show that in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country was 18,463 yuan, an increase of 4.7%year -on -year, and the actual increase in price factors increased by 3.0%. Bai Jingming said that deducting price factors, the growth rate of residents' income exceeds GDP, which is a highlight of the Chinese economy. Even in the year of low economic growth, this trend still maintains this trend, indicating that the basic characteristics of endogenous growth in my country's economy have not changed.

In response to the trend of prices, Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, pointed out that unlike the current high -global inflation companies, China's economic data just disclosed in China shows that the stability of the national economy has shown industrial toughness and market potential. China has stabilized in China. China has stabilized. Price also creates a good foundation and environment for better stabilization of the economic market.

"China's prices can maintain a gentle growth, which is a rare performance of macroeconomic governance." In Guo Liyan's view, China's achievement of stable prices is not easy. There are two main points: one is to protect the price of basic energy; The key guarantee for grain, oil, egg milk, vegetables and fruits.

Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed that since the second quarter, the main indicators such as import and export, manufacturing procurement manager index, and industrial added value have shown the characteristics of "starting in May and entering the expansion range in June". Show recovery.

"There will be many unstable and uncertain factors in the second half of the year, so we must continue to stabilize the economy and grow up." Zhang Yansheng suggested that there must be three efforts in the second half of the year: first, the overall planning of scientific epidemic prevention and the comprehensive economic and social comprehensive economy and society are comprehensive Restore and promote resumption; the second is to promote the comprehensive construction of national infrastructure projects; the third is precise policies and introduce more direct and targeted measures for stable consumption.

Regarding the highlights of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year, Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the International Trade Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed that the proportion of general trade has risen further, indicating that the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade enterprises has accelerated and competitive. The speed is higher than the whole, and new progress has been made in the diversification of the international market; the rapid growth of new trade formats such as cross -border e -commerce and overseas warehouses has played an important supporting role in the overall foreign trade growth.

Zhang Jianping said that China's foreign trade in the first half of the year has achieved a 9.4%growth on the basis of last year. Among them, the total import and export and total exports hit a new high in June in June, which laid a solid foundation for the stabilization of foreign trade in the second half of the year. Talking about the challenges facing China's foreign trade in the second half of the year, he believes that at present the global energy crisis and food crisis will largely impact the global market and have a shrinkage of demand.

In response to the foreign exchange market, Guan Tao, chief economist of BOC Securities, pointed out that in the first half of this year, under the impact of the Fed's tightening, the risks of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, and the domestic epidemic, the RMB exchange rate had a wide range of shocks. But so far, the Chinese foreign exchange market has been preliminarily tested and highlights the toughness. Guan Tao predicts that in 2022, due to the uncertainty of unstable internal and external unstable factors, the RMB exchange rate will continue to maintain a two -way fluctuation trend.

Regarding the trend of the real estate market that has attracted much attention, Ni Pengfei, director of the City and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the downward pressure of the real estate market in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, but still showed a certain toughness. Narrow or stop. He believes that if there is no external unexpected impact, the real estate market may begin to recover in the third quarter, and some indicators in the fourth quarter can be righteous. From the perspective of space, first- and second -tier cities are expected to take the lead in recovering.

Ni Pengfei suggested that the housing residence project of new citizens is implemented, and it is combined with resolving real estate inventory. On the one hand, new citizens need to afford housing, and on the other hand, developing enterprises are willing to sell the price to sell backlog inventory. The government can participate in it and promote the combination of the two.

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