How important is Russia's "qi" for Europe?

[Reporter connection · Russia and Ukraine's conflict influence of the world]

After the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the European Union launched six rounds of sanctions on Russia, mainly for Russian energy. However, European energy sanctions did not successfully curb Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine, but instead made Europe worry about Russia's comprehensive "qi". So, is Russia's natural gas really so important to Europe? The answer is yes. 40%of the natural gas supply from the European Union comes from Russia, of which Russian gas accounts for 66.1%of German natural gas supply, Italy 43.3%, Luxembourg is 27.2%, the Netherlands 26.8%, and France 16.9%. Some Central and Eastern European members account for higher proportion, such as 100%of the Czech Republic, 97.6%in Finland, 95%in Hungary, 85.4%in Slovakia, and 75.2%in Bulgaria. If Russia completely stops supplying the European natural gas, European countries will not only be unsuccessful, but also the world economy will also be seriously affected.

If it was previously the EU's aggressive sanction of Russia, then now, Europeans are beginning to realize that a "cold winter" is coming and it is for energy reserves. In recent weeks, governments and energy companies from European countries have discovered that natural gas supply from Russia has decreased significantly, and even signs of completely disconnected supply. Russia has been closed through Belarus and Poland's annual gas pipelines with 33 billion cubic meters of gas to Germany. The capacity of gas transmission pipelines of 100 billion cubic meters through Ukraine has also dropped to its lowest point. On the 11th of this month, Russia took the initiative to close the northern-1 gas pipeline connected to Germany for the "annual maintenance". The pipeline's annual air delivery capacity was 55 billion cubic meters. Earlier, Beixi-1's virtue had decreased by 60%. Although Russia said that the "maintenance" time of Beixi-1 was 10 days, Europeans worried that Russia had closed the Beixi -1 for a long time and used "energy weapons" to impose anti-sanctions against Europe. Senior German government officials have appealed a few days ago that Europe has encountered unprecedented energy challenges and everything may happen. Europe must make the worst plans.

In fact, in order to cope with Russia's anti -sanctions, European countries have begun to increase their purchases and accumulate energy such as oil and natural gas, such as increasing the import volume from Norway, while increasing the storage of liquefied natural gas from the United States and the Middle East. It is reported that although Russia has greatly reduced the number of natural gas to the European natural gas compared with the same period last year, the EU's natural gas and liquefied gas imported from Norway, the Middle East and the United States reached 1.9 billion cubic meters, which partially filled the vacancy of Russia's natural gas. It is reported that before Russia's "closed" Beixi-1 pipeline, European natural gas storage has reached the same time in Europe in 2021. From the perspective of the EU, the current storage volume of natural gas has reached 62%, while the same period last year was 52%. The European Union believes that before November 1st this year, the EU's overall natural gas reserve must reach more than 80%to ensure the safe winter. However, EU members have very different storage capacity and demand for natural gas. For example, Germany can meet 24%of consumption, and France is 28%. The European Union said that in the case of a gas crisis, the EU must carry out internal adjustment and mutual aid operations in accordance with the "new crown vaccine method".

The analysis of the EU Brugar think tank pointed out that the EU now feels the taste of "sanctions". The natural gas crisis has undoubtedly had a negative impact on the EU's economic recovery and social stability. If Russia is completely "broken" in the European Union, the EU will be difficult to cope with any remedy, because "the practice of replacing Russia's natural gas with liquefied gas has come to an end." The EU lacks infrastructure to adapt to liquefied gas. The think tank suggested that the only way to deal with Europe's "ventilation" is to refer to the average value of 2019-2021, and the EU's use of natural gas will be reduced by 15%in the next 10 months.

It is reported that the EU will introduce a report specifically for the energy crisis on July 20, with the core content of "saving energy and reducing consumption." Some analysts believe that the Three Kingdoms of Holilus will reduce natural gas consumption by 16%from now on, otherwise the situation of natural gas storage will appear from February to March 2023. Fortunately, in the first four months of this year, the three nations of Hollylum were reduced by 17%compared with the average value of 2019 to 2021. In other words, as long as the index is consumed, there is no risk of "qi" in the Three Kingdoms, but other members of the European Union who seriously rely on Russia's energy may not be so lucky.

Some analysts pointed out that Russia's "broken gas" directly affects the EU's economic revitalization and national economy and people's livelihood. Right now, Europeans talk about the "purchasing power" problem involving the quality of life. The cause of the French "Yellow Vest" campaign, which is still unprecedented in the years, is the increase in oil prices by 20 students (about 1.5 yuan). value. If Russia takes the initiative to "break the air" to Europe, in the cold winter, European families will not be able to heaterate and not to cook fire, which will inevitably cause a social turmoil that is greater than the "yellow vest" exercise. If Fa and Germany have social turmoil due to "qi", the European Union will have no head of dragons and lose motivation to move forward. The analysis here pointed out that although European and Russian relations are "cut constant and chaotic", the two sides must repair good -neighborly and friendly cooperative relations. Geographical conditions determine that Russia is a neighbor that cannot be moved in Europe, and Russia's "qi" is an important resource to maintain Europe's survival.

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