Australia, to give the decision -making power to the United States?

Writing/Hu Yidao & Little Tiger Knife

When Australia may cancel the ban on the import of coal in Australia and bluntly, the "good news" is out; when the first batch of iron ore settled with RMB arrives in China, when the Australian corporate community is very welcome to this change, a opposite signal is also in the opposite signal. Comes.

Australian Defense Minister Marce visited the United States a few days ago and opened a four -day visit.

In this visit, after Mars frequently issued a new Australian government, the Australian official was "rare and tough for China."

Mars promises "enhanced Australian military forces" to avoid "catastrophic deterrence failures" in the Indo -Pacific region.

While also calling on the United States to expand its military existence in the "Indo -Pacific Region", rendering "jointly contain China".

Especially in the "closed -door talks" of Mars and US defense Austin, the two parties were said to have reached a strategic document, which mentioned China six times, saying that "China has brought major challenges to the United States and Australia." In order to form a deeper military bundling with the United States, Australia may reach some "private commitments" with the United States.

Former Australian officials questioned that Australia handed over sovereignty and handed over its most critical national responsibility -independent war decisions to the United States.

01

Australians can't afford lettuce.

According to the latest data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the first quarter of this year rose 5.1%year -on -year, an increase of new high since 2001.

It is predicted that the average of the core inflation in Australia in the second quarter may record the fastest rise in more than 30 years. Australia's inflation rate may reach 7%by the end of this year.

In the severe economic situation, some good news for the Australian economy came.

On the 17th, the Australian Treasury Secretary Charmers said that China may cancel the coal ban in Australia, which is good news for Australian exporters.

Charmers also said that she hoped that this loosening could be relaxed to other products.

Earlier, Australian mining giant Bitheto Group issued a statement that two weeks after the Victoria cargo ship loaded with iron ore loaded from Herlan Port in Western Australia, recently arrived in Rizhao Port, a major iron ore trading port in China.

After the latest batch of iron ore was transported to the port of China, the Shanghai Branch of Bitong Bilita was also officially established, which marked the business of this century -old giant to expand its business in China.

It is worth mentioning that this is also the first batch of iron ore settlement for RMB. Experts said that the launch of the RMB iron ore trade marks an important step towards the Chinese market as a giant company in the world.

Sino -Australian economic and trade relations are undoubtedly positive for Australia, which is deeply inflated. The Australian corporate community is very welcome to this change. Even some Australian media proposes that Australia should cancel the Sanctions on Chinese trade in the World Trade Organization WTO A appeal.

China is the largest trading partner in Australia. Data show that the bilateral trade volume in 2021 reached US $ 231.2 billion, an increase of 35.1%year -on -year. China's imports from Australia increased by 40.6%year -on -year to 164.8 billion US dollars.

In May of this year, Australia held a federal election. The Labor government came to contact with China after taking office. The bilateral relations were frozen from the depth to seeing the light, and some signs of thawing and recovery appeared:

After Albunse Sheng elected, the Chinese leader gave him a congratulatory message, and Aye replied to express his gratitude.

On June 12, the Minister of Defense of China -Australia held one -on -one talks during the 19th Shangri -La dialogue, breaking the record of high -level "zero contact" of the high -level two countries since January 2020. The "full and frank communication" was carried out, saying that the meeting was "the first step", and the "door of the key" of China -Australia relations has been opened;

On June 30, Xie Feng, deputy minister of China Foreign Ministry, met with the Australian ambassador to China, Fu Guanhan. "Another step";

On July 8th, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australian Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian attended the meeting during the meeting of the 20th National Group of the Group in Bali. It is trying to deal with bilateral relations through a calm way, and "contact" is the only way to stabilize China -Australia relations.

But at the same time, some media also described Australia to adopt a "step back and two steps" repair strategies in Australia.

Albonese mentioned the issue of the Taiwan Strait in an interview on June 28, saying that if Beijing committed forces in force, it may suffer the same failure as Russia.

On July 11, Albunse said that after the recent meeting of Australia and China and Foreign Minister, China will not respond to the four requirements of Australia's so -called restoration relationships proposed by Australia, emphasizing that only Australia's national interests are responded.

On July 14, Albunse said in an interview with local TV stations that although the Solomon Islands and China had previously signed a security agreement that worried the outside world, he was "very confident" that the Solomon Islands would not have a Chinese military base.

02

When the Australian Minister of Defense Mars was visiting the United States recently, some words may be the "rare tough signal" issued by the Australian official after the new government took office.

This is the first time Mars has flew to the United States since taking office. Earlier on July 11, Mars's first event to visit the United States was to dedicate wreaths to the Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia, which also opened his prelude to his four -day visit. According to the Australian News, Mars said in Washington's first speech: "Today, there is no more important partner than the United States for Australia. The United States and Australian Union has become the cornerstone of Australian diplomatic and security policies."

Looking at this "holding thigh", it is too open and numb.

Mars also acknowledged that with the United States, the United States provided Australia with the ability, technology and intelligence advantages that could not be obtained or developed by itself. He also warned that "the strategic environment will become more severe. In a changing strategic environment, the power of this lasting partnership is more important than ever before."

The reason for this "more severe" refers to the so -called "Chinese military threats expand in Asia -Pacific."

Mars also made an important statement that it promised to "enhance Australia's military forces" to avoid "catastrophic deterrent failures" in the Indo -Pacific region. And guarantee to the United States that the Labor Party's new government will be fully committed to establishing closer partnership with Washington.

"Disaster deterrence failed", who does it fail? Obviously, it still points to China.

Mars says that the new Labor government will establish a closer connection with the United States, and it is clearly loyal to the "big brother". It is hoped that the United States will always believe in Australia, and the new government is no different from the previous Morrison government on the US position.

The Australian News also noticed that Marce promised to play a more positive role in "repeling China's influence in the Pacific" because "China has always seek economic and security alliances for development and island countries in the Pacific region" Essence

It can be seen from the speech of Mars in the U.S. Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) that its core information is to call on the United States to expand its military existence in the "Indo -Pacific Region" and rendering "jointly curbing China".

To achieve this goal, the Australian side believes that it is necessary to create more effective military forces to deter China.

Canberra is also considering whether its new nuclear -powered submarine chooses the British design plan or the United States -this is the result of the formation of the security agreement signed by the United States and Britain, Britain, and Australia signed by the Morrison government last session. Mars fully supports this defense alliance, and also believes that "the core of deterrent is underwater ability."

Mars also describes China's military development as "we have seen ... the largest scale since the end of World War II". It also said that due to the intensification of "competition between big powers", the military assembly appeared in the Indo -Pacific region was "unprecedented before World War II".

Mars's highlight of the US visit to the United States was to talk to US Defense Secretary Austin. It is said that the talks were closed at the nature of the door, and the two parties issued a public statement after the meeting. However, the mysterious color of this talk has also caused a lot of speculation.

Austin and Mars announced after the meeting that the US -Australian Alliance was "unbreakable." They not only regard the strategic documents reached by both parties as a "Indo -Pacific Agreement", but also "an important partnership aimed at actively safeguarding the interests of the United States and Australia." This document is targeted and directed.

Some media revealed that the US -Australian Defense Minister's meeting in the Pentagon also announced the next strategic goal of the United States and Australia, which is worthy of attention. There are not many strategic documents, but China is mentioned 6 times. It stands to reason that the strategic goal of the United States and Australia should not be related to China, but in fact many times point to China and Russia, and believe that China and Russia have constituted two major challenges to the United States and Australia.

Australia's Victoria Sustainable Development and former Deputy Minister of Environmental Protection, the former chief staff of the Australian Defense Minister, and the adviser Mike Sklavon wrote that the United States and Australia emphasized the "interchangeability" this time, the independent command and control of the Australian military forces. What does it mean? What are the expectations of Americans' "availability" for the Australian army during crisis? Does the election government determine that the freedom of war is damaged?

Mike Sklavon believes that in strengthening the military alliance with the United States, Mars is likely to claim that Australia has handed over sovereignty and handed over its most critical national responsibility -independent war decisions -to a great country. The difference between the United States and Australia's military forces is disappearing because the Australian Defense Force has become the "plug -in" in the United States, and Australia has become an armed base for the US army.

03

A military expert told the "Make -ups" that on the issue of strengthening military cooperation with the United States, the attitude of the Malays and Albunse government is only different from the Daton and the Morrison government. There is no big difference in general.

Because this is related to the current attitude towards China in Australia and the pattern of the Asia -Pacific large pattern. Australia's political elites, defense elites, and the main people of society are Westerners. Most ancestors were from Britain, and some of them later developed in Australia. Therefore, the construction of political operations and defense systems is the West.

Moreover, Australia has close relations with the United States, not just because of the combination of interests, but because of their instincts, they will think of them. Behind this is caused by the basic culture and values ​​of the two countries, and Australia's judgment on the current pattern of Asia -Pacific is also integrated with the United States.

Especially as China has strengthened cooperation in the South Pacific, Australia has become more aggressive in the past year or two of Australia. It believes that Asia -Pacific has formed a new situation. Australia should avoid its backyard being dyed by China and can only follow the United States. Therefore, when we see that when the United States was enclosed in China, the main horse's predecessor was Australia and Japan. And Australia is even more aggressive and more open than Japan.

In addition, Australia's land area is 7.69 million square kilometers, but the population is only about 26 million. This shows that Australia's population is relatively scattered. The Australian active army is about 50 or 60,000. In this way, the United States can use some places in Australia for military bases. Of course, this requires procedural things such as the Australian government, parliamentary approval and other procedurals. But there is a possibility in theory.

The expert said that Australian resources are also very rich, but its military enterprises cannot get up, and its level is very different from the United States and the United Kingdom. But the idea of ​​Australia is that we do not need to invest in so much to engage in our original research, as long as we rely on the United States or Britain.

The defense industry in Australia is to help the United States and Britain's military companies. The close connection between the two is equivalent to these defense companies in Australia. They are subsidiaries of the US -British military enterprises and part of the R & D team. With the drive of the United States and Britain, Australia is also improving. For example, the "Oukus" alliance provided nuclear submarines from the United States and Britain to Australia, that is, the United States and Britain supported Australia, forming a deep bundling.

If it is really necessary, Australia can provide the United States with bases, including the Marine Corps and the Air Force Base, then the U.S. amphibious combat forces and F-35 fighters, and even some bombers can increase the deployment in the Pacific Ocean. A cutting -edge base. From the perspective of the US -Australian defense agreement, this possibility exists.

In addition, Australia's intelligence cooperation with the United States is also very deep, and it has been connected. Moreover, based on Australia's geographical location, Australia can also provide the United States with monitoring bases for space facilities to strengthen the American space perception capabilities.

On the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea issue, the Albinez government and the Morrison government will not have any essential changes. This is mainly responsible for the Australian army. They have in -depth coordination with the Indo -Pacific Command in the United States, especially in response to the sudden situation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

Therefore, the difference is the question that is not said, or the problem that is less. In the future, the degree of involving the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea depends on how the United States intervenes. If China and the United States really burst into depth confrontation and the important facilities of the United States in the Asia -Pacific facilities are hit, then Australia will definitely carry out rear support, intelligence support, base support, and so on. Do not send troops depending on the last Australia and the United States.

Another Australian issue expert told "Make up one knife" that Australia's thinking against China cannot see how the National Defense Minister said, nor can they focus on being so aggressive in the two defense ministers. Hua knows that it is the whole government.

Not only is the Secretary of Defense, the prime minister, Foreign Minister and other major politicians are like this. Of course, the new Australian government has not been in power for 2 months, and the overall strategy and policies have not been completely formed. But so far, we clearly see that they are tied to the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" of the United States along the trajectory of the former government.

It can be seen from the action trajectory of the Minister of Defense himself. After he came to power, he first went to the Xianghui, followed by South Korea, India, and NATO Summit, and recently ran to the United States. Strategic deployment.

In fact, Wang Yi, a Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, made four requirements to the Australian side not long ago, including rejecting "third -party manipulation". This is very critical and important for restoring the relationship between China and Australia.

Pictures from the network

Source: Make up one knife

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