"Finance and Economics" Liu Yuanchun: Don't worry too much about the economic rebound in the second half of the year

Liu Yuanchun: Don't worry too much about the economic rebound in the second half of the year

Finance

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On July 16th, the China Wealth Management 50 Forum (CWM50) 2022 Macro Macro Summit was held in Beijing. The summit focused on steady growth and implementation path.

The first point of view is not necessary to overly worry about the economic rebound in the second half of the year.

Judging from the current pre -parameters and some confidence indexes in various aspects, a qualitative change has actually occurred from June to July. For example, the PMI index is jumping, especially the non -manufacturing PMI index can directly increase from 47%to 54.7%. More importantly, the current parameters of some investment indicate the various investment in the country in the third quarter and the second half of the year, which is actually much larger than expected.

Therefore, if the economic rebound in the third and fourth quarters is overly concerned, the economic rebound cannot meet the standards, which may lead to too hard. Therefore, in economic regulation, one is to prevent overlapping overlap, and the other is to prevent excessive decomposition.

The second point of view is that since it has completed a stable state, the core task below is a comprehensive recovery.

The comprehensive recovery may require work to focus on the cultivation of the internal and energy cultivation from the perspective of traditional re -production and re -production, from the perspective of the epidemic, and from the perspective of the rescue of the epidemic. The cultivation of market kinetic energy not only requires some policies to maintain a certain efforts, but also require some changes in the focus of the policy.

First, we must continue to pay attention to large projects and pay attention to the penetration effect of large enterprises for SMEs. Second, the comprehensive startup and expected adjustment of private investment. Third, more importantly, real estate, some adjustments in the market should not be too fast, but the government's side, especially affordable housing, should be improved moderately.

The third point of view must be clear what the current risk is.

It is not advisable to magnify short -term risks and ignore some structural risks in the middle period. At present, the confidence of the micro -subject is not necessarily the problem of the epidemic itself and the short -term growth, but the positioning of some of the future big strategies and large policies in the future. Therefore, it is actually required that we may focus on some problems in the mid -term, not only the matching between the short -term stable growth of macroeconomic policies and the medium -term sustainability, but also more importantly Adjustment and reform must have a good balance.

Liu Yuanchun: Member of Chang'an Street Reading Club, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

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