[Cai Zhi Headline] How about Sri Lanka after bankruptcy?

Sri Lanka, the economy has flourished a few years ago, and once ranked among South Asian high -income countries, but now, this South Asian island country with a population of nearly 22 million has been trapped in the worst economic crisis since 1948.

According to foreign media reports such as Reuters, on July 5th, then Sri Lanka State Prime Minister Renier Vikramaxinha said the country has gone bankrupt and the unprecedented economic crisis will last at least until the end of 2023.

On July 14, President Sri Lanka took a private jet to Singapore.

The country's bankruptcy and the president ran away, and the debt finally crushed Sri Lanka, which turned the "pearl" of the Indian Ocean into tears. Why does a sovereign country go bankrupt? Why does Sri Lanka come to this step today? Under the chaotic political situation, where is Sri Lanka?

Petroleum natural gas shortage burning firewood and cooking

Although Sri Lanka is now in difficulty in public transportation, the people of Sri Lanka are generally peaceful. Yang Shiyuan, the author of the Sri Lanka state -owned newspaper "Sunday Observation" column, revealed that under the increasing economy, there have been some changes in social security, such as hearing that there are Chinese people being stolen. In Yang Shiyuan's view, as long as Sri Lanka's economic problems are not resolved for a day, the masses still need to be cautious about social security.

In addition, in addition to the shortage of oil, Sri Lanka also has a shortage of natural gas. Yang Shiyuan revealed that a few months ago, it was burning firewood and cooking, and not only ordinary people burned firewood. Sri Lanka's oldest and about 100 -year -old hotel was also cooking.

Therefore, Yang Shiyuan believes that Sri Lanka's difficulties have not achieved overnight, but have occurred in the past year until the situation is getting worse.

Talking about the future situation of Sri Lanka, Yang Shiyuan said that the biggest concern is the uncertainty of the future. At present, most Chinese people have no clear expectations for the future and cannot give corresponding plans. When do you persist? When did the time point choose to return to China?

No Chinese tourist Chinese businessmen have gradually withdrew or completely transferred to career

Yang Shiyuan reviewed the past that before 2019, about 20,000 Chinese citizens were in Sri Lanka, many of them were engaged in the tourism and engineering industry. In 2018, Chinese tourists were the second largest customer source of Sri Lanka. But now, the Chinese market in Sri Lanka's tourism industry is completely zero, and no Chinese tourists come to Sri Lanka.

Therefore, people engaged in tourism -related people, including restaurants, hotels, travel agencies, and even some retail personnel, have been withdrawn or completely transferred in these years. At present, the people who stay in Sri Lanka are very limited, and the people who stay are also observing how the situation in Sri Lanka makes the final decision in the future.

And local Sri Lankians have recently chosen immigrants. Generally speaking, there are more immigrants in Australia.

Yang Shiyuan said that in the context of the current economic crisis of Sri Lanka, whether it is Chinese businessmen or locals in Sri Lanka, and investors from other countries, they are facing very difficult situations. For example, the problem of oil and electricity, some manufacturing companies can only open a day or two days a week. This business does not mean much to them, but it has caused more pressure, but many entrepreneurs still use very much A positive mentality is not completely without a chance to solve the problem.

The price is soaring, and the hand paper is 3 times to buy coffee and does not give a cup for coffee

Talking about the local status quo of Sri Lanka, Yang Shiyuan told Phoenix.com's "Cover Live" that the situation of difficulties in Sri Lanka did not suddenly happen within a day. For a period of time, it has gradually happened since 2019. "

Yang Shiyuan added that the current life in Sri Lanka is worse than every day, and July is the worst month in her previous experience. At present, the regional planning of Yang Shiyuan's area is 3 hours a day, twice, one and a half hours at a time. At the same time, the government stipulates that it is the curfew time from 12 pm to 5 am the next morning. However, because Sri Lanka is a tropical country, residents can only sit silently in the dull darkness during the evening power outage, so most of them choose to ignore the government ban on the street to protest.

Talking about the current supply of Sri Lanka, Yang Shiyuan said that Colombo is the capital of Sri Lanka, and materials will definitely give priority to Colombo. But Colombo also has the condition of rising prices and shortage of materials. For example, the eggs rose from a box of 250 rupees to a box of 500 rupees; toilet paper rose from 800 and 900 rupees to a pack of more than 2,000 rupees, and the price was tripled; milk would only buy two boxes at a time; coffee even no longer even stopped for a time. Provide a paper cup.

For the reason for the shortage of materials, Yang Shiyuan believes that it is mainly due to the lack of fuel that leads to poor logistics, and the supermarket cannot be replenished in time.

Basically relying on "walking" when going out, the local government requires unnecessary to go out.

Regarding Sri Lanka residents to get oil on the street with plastic buckets, Yang Shiyuan said that the reality is indeed the case. There are two reasons for this. One is that residents are really lack of oil, and on the other hand, residents lack confidence in the economy. Essence

Yang Shiyuan introduced that because of this, no matter how much oil comes, it will be robbed soon, so there is a regulation of restrictions. For example, a taxi can only add a small amount of oil at one time. So, the taxi driver is in the taxi driver. After queuing for four days and four nights, you can only add a little oil, and there is no time to make money, which makes everyone feel worse and worse. At present, the gas stations must be very long -term teams. Yang Shiyuan uses the gas station near his home as an example. The team revolves around the gas station. From this block to another block, a closed loop is formed, which directly affects daily travel. Yang Shiyuan said that when he goes out of the house, the area where his feet can be walked will go. The area where his feet cannot be walked, then to measure whether it is necessary to travel. The Sri Lanka government also advocates that it is not necessary to travel.

According to Yang Shiyuan's understanding, Colombo, as the capital, is usually very congested, and now transportation is relatively unobstructed. In addition to private cars, some private buses were suspended, and even some trains were suspended, and the status of the train in Sri Lanka was like a Chinese subway.

The crisis is "human disaster" greater than "natural disasters"

"A country that is good a few years ago, why did it happen suddenly?"

Regarding the recent crisis of Sri Lanka, Li Yanfang, an associate professor of the Indian Ocean Research Center of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, told Phoenix Network Finance "Cover Live" that Sri Lanka's current situation has actually had such concerns since its independence.

Li Yanfang believes that talking about Sri Lanka's country's bankruptcy is not enough to trace back to the start of the epidemic in 2020 or the Colombo explosion in 2019.

Li Yanfang took some research of European and American scholars as an example. As early as 2009, when Sri Lanka ended the civil war, the Sri Lanka began a large -scale borrowing of debt to promote production. At the same time, he valued the domestic market and lacked support for pillar industries that supported exports.

However, Li Yanfang also said that if the economic structure is single and external impact as the reason for the status quo of Sri Lanka, it is not convincing. Because Sri Lanka has tea, rubber, and low -end textile industry, and the tertiary industry and tourism industry, there are more single countries than it, but Sri Lanka has not seen the dilemma of Sri Lanka today. "Its earliest problem is still the development model it built by itself. This is a problem that it has been independent since its independence."

Li Yanfang believes that from the perspective of income, Sri Lanka relies on issues such as large planting economy and single economic structure. Based on the historical conditions and resource endowments at the time, this may be the best choice for Sri Lanka, and even the early Sri Lanka was a developing country. Among them.

However, from the perspective of expenditure, the Sri Lankan government accepted a large number of European concepts. "When income and creativity are relatively low, there are such long -term and previous governments." It is a "strange existence".

In addition, Sri Lanka believes in a concept of Western economics -as long as there is deficit, it can promote the development of the economy, resulting in its government policy "self -relief". Li Yanfang told Phoenix.com's "Cover Live" that after 1978, Sri Lanka has never achieved a financial gain. Its double deficit has been deficit since 1978. "And through inflation, the expenditure is getting bigger and bigger, and the deficit is getting bigger and bigger."

Li Yanfang believes that Sri Lanka has promoted economic fragile development through "sustainable debt's sustainable acquisition", and he did not build a good endogenous and internal cycle model, which completely relied on external promotion. "There is a problem in the root."

But Sri Lanka's "development resources and development ambitions are not matched." Li Yanfang said that since Madamada Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka's one -time president has continuously launched a new prosperity vision, but because of the lack of resource support, the production transformation itself has not been realized. Most of these magnificent plans are separated from reality.

Beginning in 2017, Sri Lanka has experienced a series of natural disasters, as well as serial strikes such as terrorist attacks, new crown epidemic, Russia and Ukraine's grain price increases. In the case of decreased income, a large amount of expenses must be added to support the import and security of pharmaceutical products and security. Power improvement, etc.

But in addition to the "natural disaster", the bigger problem of Sri Lanka is "human disasters", that is, government policy decisions make mistakes.

Li Yanfang preached that in order to achieve his campaign commitment in 2019 in 2019, President Rajapaksa launched a tax reduction policy and abolished the 2019 Central Bank Law to authorize the government to print its own money. Composition, this policy seriously disrupts the government's macro -control capabilities.

At the same time, 100%of organic agriculture was promoted in 2021- "a policy decision that no developed country has not achieved and is not in line with developing countries."

16 borrowings lost IMF trust, can Sri Lanka still borrow money?

There are two current schemes of the Sri Lankan administration.

The first is to borrow from IMF. From 1965 to 2016, Sri Lanka sought a total of help from the IMF. IMF provided a total of 16 debt restructuring or fund arrangements. However, Sri Lanka has not been able to achieve economic improvement. reduce.

Li Yanfang told Phoenix.com's "Cover Live" that of the 16 borrowings of the IMF before, about 7 times did not give Sri Lanka all because of the Sri Lanka often committed a commitment on the borrowing agreement, but it was not implemented in the process. To compress the benefits, to increase productive investment, etc., the government will feel that I will be elected next time, and it will not be done. " In addition, Sri Lanka also hopes to establish an international consortium to give it subsequent debt reduction, extension, and reorganization. However, due to the geopolitical or political competition in China, the United States, Japan, India and other countries mentioned in the plan, the actual operation of this plan is very difficult.

For the final solution of the Sri Lanka issue, Li Yanfang still believes that the IMF solution is more feasible. The IMF has an open and transparent platform. It can allow credit countries to replace some resources and debt swaps to ensure the interests of debt countries.

At the same time, Li Yanfang believes that there is another benefit to negotiate through the framework of the IMF, that is, it can prevent China from negotiating with Sri Lanka alone and not giving Western countries' rising opportunities, such as the debt trap mentioned earlier.

Sri Lanka is the first country to fall, but it will never be the only one

Speaking of the commonality of developing countries facing debt issues, Li Yanfang said that most of these countries have come out of the colonial system and have more or less accepted some development models that are not suitable for them. The ability to impact is weak.

Li Yanfang said that in 2020, more than 190 of more than 200 countries and regions around the world are negative growth. To explore the Sri Lanka issue, to abandon the framework of geopolitical competition, because it is a global problem, just like climate change.

When it comes to debt issues around the world, Li Yanfang believes that Sri Lanka is the first country to fall, but it will definitely not be the only one. It will have such problems in more developing countries in the future. For example, Laos has been supported by hardships; Bangladesh, which had "good performance" before, many economic indicators have begun to decline.

Li Yanfang believes that the decline in the international economy and the repeated epidemic, coupled with the break of the international industrial chain, will lead to a number of these countries falling down like Sri Lanka because of Sri Lanka's own hematopoietic ability is too poor.

(WeChat public account "Caizhi Headline" comprehensive from: Global Network, Beijing News, Securities Times, etc.)

Edit: Yuan Kai

School pair: Fenghua

Review: Gong Zimo

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