Zhang Jun talks about the current economic situation in Shanghai: strive to improve the certainty of economic development

The most important thing is to ensure liquidity and smooth flow

Zhang Jun, Dean of the School of Economics, Fudan University

Senior professor of liberal arts, well -known economists, and "Yangtze River Scholar", a well -known economist, and a special professor of the Ministry of Education.

Reporter: How do you think of the downlink pressure of the epidemic impact to the Shanghai economy?

Zhang Jun: 4 or 5 months this year, because of the needs of epidemic control, the Shanghai economy has been greatly affected. The flow of people and logistics is basically static, and it is very unfavorable to the creation of economic activities and income. Among them, losing liquidity has the greatest impact on the service industry, such as catering, entertainment, and tourism, because their target consumers are not enough to leave home. Even if you can shop through the mobile terminal, the stop of logistics will have a significant impact on consumption. Soon after the control management, Shanghai implemented a special passage management model, allowing the restoration of some logistics, and the situation was partially relieved. Compared with the service industry, the manufacturing industry is slightly smaller. Because in general, manufacturing has a certain inventory buffer, including raw materials and intermediate products. But overall, manufacturing still faces poor logistics caused by sealing or closed management. The production of things cannot be transported, the need for intermediate products and components that are needed cannot be transported in, and the contract delivery contract cannot be loaded during the prescribed time ... so the economic negative growth in the short term is inevitable. Conversely, this reveals that the most important thing of the economy of a city is to ensure liquidity and smoothness, and people, wealth, things, and information must flow, which is like the blood of people. We are a market economy and an open economy. All policies that affect liquidity, including emergencies such as epidemic, will have a greater impact on the economy in the short term. Reporter: What is the difference between the impact of the economy and the "SARS" in 2003?

Zhang Jun: Today's economy and 2003 are not at all. Compared with then, today's service industry is more developed, the entire economy has a higher degree of marketization, greater openness, stronger complexity, and longer supply chain. From the statistical point of view, the impact of SARS on GDP is like a pulse: the indicator suddenly falls, and then quickly gets up again. The breadth and impact depth of the new coronal pneumonia virus must be more powerful, and it will have a long -term impact. Whether it is human cognition or vaccine for the virus, it is still in its infancy. In the future, it is not only China, but the world will face the problem of normalization of epidemic prevention. In other words, don't expect the virus to disappear suddenly from us. In the future, we will deal with it a lot, and there will be better vaccines until we face the new crown and face flu.

Toughness means the ability to rebound in the face of impact

Reporter: How to enhance the toughness of Shanghai's economic response to external shocks?

Zhang Jun: Unlike other international metropolises such as New York and Hong Kong, Shanghai is characterized by relatively high proportion of manufacturing, accounting for about a quarter of GDP. Because of the manufacturing industry, the extent that the Shanghai economy is impacted by the epidemic will be relatively eased. If there is only the service industry, the situation will be more severe.

If there is toughness, the existence of manufacturing may be a reason. First of all, the manufacturing industry is not so fragile, and many industries can operate in a closed loop. In addition, the automation of manufacturing is higher, and some industries can already use robots to replace manpower. This is also a major trend in the future. Of course, toughness does not only refer to sufficient buffer space in the face of impact, but also means that it has the ability to rebound after controlling the external impact. In addition to the modern service industry, there are many export industries in Shanghai's manufacturing industry, and they are now recovering faster. For the service industry, if you want to recover as soon as possible, the most important thing is to improve the monitoring ability of the epidemic, flow tone, and nucleic acid detection capacity. The status of Shanghai's local finances is relatively good and rich in medical resources, which is also an important guarantee for accelerating economic recovery. Reporter: How to ensure that the core function of Shanghai's city is operating normally under the external impact?

Zhang Jun: Among the service industry in Shanghai, the core functions of finance, trade, and shipping have been highly modernized, and a large number of trading activities are carried out online. When a virus attack or sealing control, only a small number of personnel can be maintained on the spot on the spot. There is a technical issue in this: if people are not at the scene, can they handle these transactions at home? When "9 · 11", the United States also faced this problem. At that time, Wall Street was closed, and the operation of the entire financial system would be affected, so the United States was also discussing. Because from data security considerations, the law does not allow employees to access the inner network of financial institutions from home to perform online tasks. Although these core systems can operate automatically, a certain number of people still need a certain number of people at the scene. However, I want to solve these problems with the development of blockchain technology. This also reminds us that as a financial center, we need to have a complete and efficient disaster recovery system, including financial operations such as capital markets, commodity futures, and fund securities. Many institutions may have established some, but there was no chance to test before, and this epidemic provided an opportunity. For example, the person in charge of the Shanghai Gold Exchange once talked about that in addition to Shanghai's delivery center, the exchange also has a backup trading center in Shenzhen. This is considering that in case Shanghai encounters emergencies, they can use foreign backup trading centers to ensure the performance of gold delivery contracts.

Create scientific transparency and predictable policy environment

Reporter: What is the focus of Shanghai's economic development in the second half of the year?

Zhang Jun: For the restoration and stability of the economy, the biggest enemy is uncertainty. For example, if you want to go out for dinner, do things, or want to travel or travel in other places, the biggest problem is that you don't know if you will be isolated. This is uncertainty. If you are determined, you can make a plan in advance, wherever you go; but if there is uncertainty, you will postpone decisions and push the expenditure back. This is the case for everyone, as well as the entire economy. Economic recovery requires a certain and predictable policy environment. Whether it is family, investors, entrepreneurs, or enterprises, predictability is important. Therefore, Shanghai must first create a scientific, transparent, and predictable policy environment. In this way, business will come, business travel will come, tourists will come, and local people can make corresponding arrangements for eating, drinking, and fun. It is important to eliminate unpredictable uncertainty. I am looking forward to the policy environment of the relevant Shanghai departments after the epidemic, and clean up the policies that can be cleaned up as soon as possible. The original source is clear, so that the policy is clearer and transparent, and people will no longer be disturbed by various gossip and noise. It is suggested that the municipal government attaches great importance to this issue, and through a fixed policy window or hotline, the policy is clear at a glance, and people's uncertainty of people living, investing, buying business, and business in Shanghai. Reporter: What suggestions do you have for promoting the high -quality development of Shanghai's economy? Zhang Jun: As the most developed place in China's economy, innovation in various fields should be in front of the country. It should take the lead in impacting the transformation of the local economic development mode by this epidemic. The road of connotation development. To put it bluntly, the development of connotation is that the government will no longer be promoted from the investment to promote economic growth, but allows and encourages the independent choice of market entities. The government is to make the policy environment well, work to eliminate all kinds of uncertainties, and more encourage fair access and fair competition in the system, reduce the unnecessary intervention of government departments, hand over more options to the market entity and effectively Protect their rights and interests. Such a change has arrived. When the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was established in 2013, I wanted to use the Free Trade Zone to carry out a series of institutional innovation, change the government department's management model, more decentralization of power, ensure the freedom of market entities, improve the comprehensive freedom of economic activities, Essence These system innovation should be promoted in the city to make the Shanghai economy more energetic. The path of connotation development must be combined with talents with global cities. When more talents come to Shanghai, the Shanghai economy will definitely develop better. If you consider the problem from this perspective, in addition to hardware construction, the most important thing is the environmental construction, including the institutional environment and the policy environment, to ensure that people choose their careers and entrepreneurship in Shanghai, and their lives have no worries. Environmental construction is a long -term issue for long -term merit. In terms of basic education and medical resources, there are many places in Shanghai that need to work hard to improve. In my opinion, the future of Shanghai may be whether it can solve these basic problems that make ordinary people anxious.

Liberation Daily · Shangguan News Original manuscript, reprinting without permission

Author: Zai Fei Wu Danlu

WeChat editor: Jiasinmin

School pair: Xiaochuan

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