GDP target, inflation pressure, and employment experts analyze China's economic transcript in the first half of the year

China Net Finance July 16 (Reporter Chang Shuai Shuai) Since this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe, and the domestic epidemic situation has been issued more, which is not conducive to significantly increase. Economic development is extremely unusual. In the second quarter, the downward pressure on the economy increased significantly.

On the morning of July 15th, the transcript of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year was freshly released. What is the economic growth under the epidemic disturbance in the first half of the year? Can the economy in the second half of the year continue to recover? Can 5.5%of the GDP growth targets throughout the year can achieve it? How about employment? Can inflation pressure resist in the second half of the year? China Net Finance interviewed experts and scholars analysis.

Data Map (China Net Finance and Economics Change)

Under the disturbance of the epidemic, how is the economic growth in the first half of the year?

Is the economy? The Statistics Bureau preliminarily calculated that the total domestic product in the first half of the year was 56264.2 billion yuan, which was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%.

Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Comprehensive Statistics, commented that in the face of abnormal complex and difficult situations, various regions and departments efficiently coordinated the prevention and control of epidemic and economic and social development, increased macro -policy regulation, and effectively implemented it. The policy and measures of stabilizing the economy, the rebound of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, the national economy has stabilized and rebounded, the marginal improvement of production demand has improved, the market price is basically stable, the people's livelihood guarantee is strong and effective, the high -quality development situation continues, and the overall social situation has remained stable.

"In the first half of this year, the economic situation is generally relatively stable." Bai Jingming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Finance Sciences and former deputy dean, stated at the China Economic Analysis Conference in the 2022. The goal of "stabilizing the economic market" came out. Under the influence of super -expected factors, it can achieve positive growth of "2.5%", which shows that we are "stabilized and standing down."

Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Macro Economic Research Institute, believes that it is very difficult to achieve positive growth in the second quarter, showing the toughness and market potential of my country's industry, the economic stabilization and recovery, and the prices have created a good price for the stabilization of the economic market. surroundings.

Can the economy in the second half of the year continue to recover?

The country's economy is tough. The epidemic has a great impact on the economy, but my country's economy is still considerable, and the strong material foundation and large market size have been obvious.

Fu Linghui said that in general, with the good situation of the epidemic prevention and control and the improvement of the policy effect, the advantages of my country's large economic volume, wide market space, sufficient development of toughness, multi -reorganization dividends, and strong governance capabilities will be further played. It is expected to resume development. Of course, we must also see that there are still many external instability and uncertainty factors. The domestic triple pressure still exists. It is necessary to stabilize the macroeconomic market and promote economic recovery.

"In the second half of the year, the US and European economies will change from stagnation to decline. The Chinese economy will start a recovery cycle, which will lead the world." Economist Ren Zeping is optimistic about the development of China's economy in the second half of the year.

He believes that the top ten optimism factor in the future capital market has not changed. The basic logic of China's long -term prosperity and development of China's economy has not changed, namely: marketization, internationalization, industrialization, urbanization, and informatization.

Can 5.5%GDP growth targets achieved?

Regarding the annual goals, Fu Linghui admits that at present, the risk of stagnation of world economic stagnation risks has risen, external instability and uncertain factors have increased, and domestic demand shrinkage, supply shock, and expected weakness still exist. Essence

"But we must also see that the long -term fundamental fundamentals of my country's economy have not changed, and the characteristics of strong economic toughness are obvious. The macro policy regulation tools are rich in tools, and the economic recovery is more favorable. The effects of coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development have continuously promoted the effects of various policies and measures that have stabilized the economy. The economy is expected to continue to rise in a reasonable range. "Fu Linghui pointed out.

Can inflation pressure resist in the second half of the year?

International inflation pressure has risen as a whole, and domestic concerns about stable prices are also rising. Can my country resist the pressure of inflation in the second half of the year?

"We are in the golden period of economic recovery. China's economy has continued to improve, and the level of prices has risen mild, and it will not restrain monetary policy." Ren Zeping pointed out.

Fu Linghui said that from an international perspective, my country's CPI increase is significantly lower than that of European and American countries, mainly because my country has not adopted a strong stimulus policy of "large water irrigation". Faced with international input inflation, it has increased the domestic market to maintain stable prices. In addition, the harvest of food this year has ensured the overall stability of the CPI.

"Looking forward to the whole year, there is no foundation for comprehensive inflation in China." Guo Liyan said that my country adheres to the rhythm and focus of scientific grasp of policies, and insist on not engaged in strong stimulation of large water irrigation. Price is a good support.

Guo Liyan also mentioned that objectively speaking, the price index fluctuations are the normal state, and it cannot be ruled out that the price of the price of structural commodities cannot be ruled out. For example Price will not constitute impact.

Ren Zeping's team believes that from the perspective of the pig cycle of 3-4 years, the current upsurge of the bottom of the new round of pig cycle has been proven with the law of production capacity. It is expected that the price will rise moderately in the future, but it does not have the conditions to rise rapidly. The main due to the low degree of production capacity is not deep, and it is relatively high in history. The superimposed measures of stable and stable price are introduced. In the future, the increase depends on the degree of production capacity. How about employment? Is it easy to find?

Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Since the beginning of this year, factors such as the complex and severe environment and the impact of domestic epidemic have a certain impact on employment. So what is the employment situation in my country in the first half of the year?

Fu Linghui introduced: "Generally speaking, with the joint efforts of all aspects, as the economy has gradually recovered, various employment policies have gradually been implemented, and the trend of rising unemployment rates in cities and towns has been reversed."

Specifically, due to various factors, the urban survey unemployment rate rose to 6.1%in April. As the epidemic prevention and control situation was better, from May, urban survey unemployment rates decreased for two consecutive months. In May The rate was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and further dropped to 5.5%in June.

From the perspective of the second quarter, the employment situation mainly has the following characteristics:

First, the employment of the employment is generally stable. Although the unemployment rate of employment in the age of 25-59 has increased in April, the increase is significantly lower than the overall unemployment level. In June, the unemployment rate of employment subjects at the age of 25-59 was 4.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, close to the average level in 2021.

Second, the employment situation of migrant workers has improved. Most of the migrant workers are engaged in labor -intensive manufacturing and service industries. Most of them are employed with individual households and flexible employment, and their employment stability is relatively poor. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the unemployment rate of foreign agricultural household registration population rose to 6.6%in April. As the epidemic gradually controlled, the efforts to help enterprises 'stabilization measures, and the employment of migrant workers' groups improved significantly. In May, the unemployment rate of foreign agricultural household registrations fell to 6.2%, and in June to 5.3%, which was lower than the overall unemployment level.

Third, the employment pressure of young people is still relatively large. The young group entered the labor market for the first time. It is generally facing frictional unemployment dilemma. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, enterprises have declined with employment capabilities, and young people have also been hindered under the conditions of epidemic conditions. In addition, the total number of college graduates this year reached a record high, which exacerbated the employment pressure of young people. In June, the urban youth unemployment rate of 16-24 years old was 19.3%, which is at a high level since this year.

Fu Linghui emphasized that with the recovery of the economy and the effectiveness of employment policies, the employment situation in my country in the second quarter generally showed a trend of improvement, but the problem of high employment pressure of young people is still prominent. It is necessary to further implement the employment policy, implement employment assistance, and promote the employment situation to continue to improve.

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