A package of steady growth policy measures to be effective in the rise of the economy to rise

China Business Daily (Reporter Peng Tingting text/picture) In the first half of this year, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 3.4%year -on -year, and the value -added of the service industry increased by 1.8%year -on -year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 21043.2 billion yuan. Farmers) increased by 6.1%year -on -year, and the total import and export of goods increased by 9.4%year -on -year ... On July 15, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the GDP (GDP) in the first half of the year was 56264.2 billion yuan. A year -on -year increase of 2.5%. "This was obtained in the background of the decline in the main production demand indicators in April and May. It should be said that it is very difficult to reflect the strong toughness of my country's economy." Said Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics.

Policies and measures are explicitly effective in the second quarter of economy to achieve positive growth

Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe, and the slowdown of the world economic growth has obvious. The domestic new crown pneumonia's epidemic has been issued more. Sudden factors exceeded expectations, which has caused a serious impact on the stable economic operation. When the economic recovery is better than expected from January to February, the main economic indicators in March and April have fallen significantly.

Faced with the obvious downward pressure, all localities and departments in accordance with the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, efficiently coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, increased macro -policy regulation, introduced a solid policy and measures to stabilize the economy, and stabilized the economy to stabilize the economy The broader market promotes the economic growth in the second quarter. "In the second quarter, my country's economy overcome multiple pressure challenges. The main indicators stopped the decline and achieved a stable recovery." Fu Linghui said.

The transformation and upgrading situation continues. Although the downward pressure on the economy has increased, my country's economic innovation has led to continued to increase, and the trend of upgrading and development has not changed. The new kinetic energy achieved rapid growth. In the first half of the year, the added value of high -tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.6%year -on -year, and investment in high -tech industries increased by 20.2%, which maintained a faster increase. Green transformation continues to advance. In the first half of the year, the proportion of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption increased by 1.3 percentage points year -on -year, and the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 111.2%and 31.8%, respectively.

The price situation is generally stable. my country has increased the market for stable and prices, grasping food and energy production, and ensuring the overall stability of the domestic market price. In the first half of the year, the consumer prices of residents rose 1.7%year -on -year, lower than the expected target of about 3%throughout the year. The core CPI of food and energy rises by 1%to maintain basically stability. "my country's price increase is significantly lower than the level of more than 8%of European and American countries, which is conducive to economic stable operation and improvement of people's livelihood." Fu Linghui said.

"In the second quarter, GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year, and the monthly economic indicators fell in April, the decline in May narrowed, and the trend of stabilizing and recovering in June. According to a reporter from China Business Daily, the structural economic restoration relying on anti -cyclical forces such as infrastructure investment, and the recovery of long -term growth momentum such as service industry, consumption, and real estate investment is weak and slow. It is expected that the future consumption incremental policy is expected to be expected. The GDP will increase by about 5%-6%in the second half of the year, and the annual increase of about 4%-4.5%.

At the Beijing Huiju Center, market activities organized by merchants have attracted many consumers to participate and buy.

Investment driving effect is obvious consumption transfer to positive expectations

From the perspective of market demand, the role of investment and exports is obvious, and the consumption of residents continues to rise.

In terms of investment, the number of new projects in the first five months increased by 26.1%year -on -year, and the total investment of new project planned projects increased by 23.3%. Recently, the credit quota of policy banks has recently added 800 billion yuan, creating a policy and developmental financial instrument of 300 billion yuan. The project construction guarantee has increased, and the key support role of investment has been further prominent.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from China Business Daily that the margin of the growth rate of manufacturing investment has risen, on the one hand, from the end of the end of the end demand, especially the exports remain tough, the infrastructure investment is stable, and the manufacturing investment is positive. On the other hand, due to the disruption of logistics and supply chains in the epidemic, the increase in raw materials has slowed down, and the cost impact faced by enterprises is relatively reduced. In addition, the policy continues to guide the financial industry to increase its support for the manufacturing industry, and the continuous decline in loan interest rate levels will also help the growth rate of manufacturing investment.

In terms of consumption, as the epidemic has been effectively controlled, the consumption of residents has steadily recovered. The market consumption has recovered significantly during the Dragon Boat Festival this year, and online retail sales have grown rapidly. In June, retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.1%year-on-year, which is significantly better than that of May -6.7%of May -6.7%. And the national movie box office increased by 1.7 times over the previous month.

"Consumption turns in advance, and the market is expected to be in the market." Wen Bin told the China Business Daily reporter that the reason why consumption is obviously improved, which mainly includes the following reasons: First, the consumption scenario continues to be repaired. The epidemic in June was initially controlled, and the offline contact service industry gradually recovered. The second is to promote the effect of consumer policy. A package of stabilizing economic policy deployment, buying a displacement passenger car with a displacement of no more than 300,000 yuan before the end of the year, can reduce the purchase tax of half of the vehicle, which has a significant effect on car consumption. In June, car consumption increased by 13.9%year-on-year, much higher than-16%of last month. Third, the consumption demand of the previous epidemic backlog was concentrated. The most typical is the number of domestic tourists in the Dragon Boat Festival to 86.8%before the epidemic, and the tourist revenue returned to 65.6%before the epidemic.

However, it should be seen that individual industries have not yet got rid of the predicament. For example, the catering industry, in June, revenue decreased by 4.0%year -on -year, and revenue in the first half of the year decreased by 7.7%. Still negative, decreased by 4.6%and 0.7%, respectively. "It shows that the consumer market also needs to be further boosted, so as to contribute to the annual GDP's 5.5%growth target." Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Star Financial Research Institute, told the China Business Daily reporter. It is worth noting that the growth rate of foreign trade has accelerated. In June, the import and export, exports, and imports were increased by 14.3%, 22%, and 4.8%in June. Essence

Demand recovery has potential production back and supporting support

"The epidemic has a great impact on the economy, but the scale of my country's economy is still considerable. The long -term accumulated strong material foundation and the advantages of the large market size are obvious. These have increased the confidence and confidence of my country's risk challenges." Fu Linghui believes that In the second half of the year, demand has potential to recover, and production recovery has support.

From the perspective of demand, in terms of investment, the efforts of stable investment have continued to increase, the issuance and use of special debt are accelerated, major projects have accelerated, infrastructure investment is accelerating, and the key role of investment in investment is expected to be enhanced. The situation is good, offline consumption scenarios have gradually recovered, and consumer policies are expected to continue to recover. In terms of foreign trade, foreign trade imports and exports have strong toughness, and foreign trade stability has a good foundation.

From the perspective of industrial production, with the acceleration of the re -production and re -production of enterprises, the blocking point of the industrial chain supply chain is gradually connected, and the role of key industries such as automobiles and electronics is expected to further strengthen. Essence Enterprises in Shanghai, Jilin and other places are "riveting" to accelerate the "gap" in the early stage. The electricity consumption of key companies in Shanghai is more than doubled in the same period last year. Driven by factors such as the rapid growth of the mining industry and some raw material industries, the economic growth rate is significantly higher than the national level.

How will the macro policy be forced next? Wu Chaoming told the China Commercial Daily reporter that incremental fiscal stimuli can be expected, and currency cooperation is mainly based on the force. In terms of currency, in the second half of the year, it is necessary to balance the multiple goals of employment, stability and stable exchange rates. It is expected that the total tone to maintain stability and looseness, the core focuses on broad credit. Forces, etc. to support credit expansion, do not rule out the possibility of continued reduction and asymmetric reduction of 5 -year LPR interest rates, but the probability of comprehensive interest rate cuts is small; in the financial perspective, it is expected that the existing policy is densely effective in the third quarter, and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure growth is expected It is expected to accelerate; incremental policy tools are expected to be introduced, and more focus on residents' consumption.

"In the next stage, policy effects such as large -scale retention of tax refund, the issuance of special debt, and the increase in financial support will continue to appear, which will help promote the continuous recovery of the economy and develop good development." Fu Linghui said.

"The good situation of sustainable and healthy development of our country has not changed. The production factor conditions that support high -quality development have not changed, and the long -term good fundamentals have not changed." Yuan Da, director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission The effectiveness of preventing and controlling and economic and social development has continued to appear, and the effect of macro policy has been further released. The economy is expected to continue to rise and run in a reasonable range in the second half of the year.

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