How much food produces can be used for forecasting

Datian is high -yield, thousands of layers of wheat waves, agricultural machinery galloping, harvesting grain granules to the warehouse ... On July 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. This year, the total output of summer grains in the country was 14.739 million tons, an increase of 1.434 million tons over the previous year. And the quality is better than all years, the output of miscellaneous beans increases slightly, and the yield of rapeseed has increased significantly.

The first battle of Xia grain production was the foundation for the bumper food harvest of the year. The early prediction of the harvest of summer grain is also vital to ensure the safety of national food. It is little known that when the food produces, the meteorology can also be predicted.

Why do you need to carry out food production forecast

"You see how big my wheat ears!" "There are more than 80 grains in a wheat ears!" "There are more than 1500 pounds of yield per mu!" "It's a big harvest!" ... A series of sighs sighed from the mouth of Henan farmers.

The official website of the National Bureau of Statistics issued an announcement showing that the total output of Henan summer grain was 38.131 million tons, the seedling area was 5683.8 thousand hectares, and the unit area of ​​the unit area was 6708.7 kg/hectare.

Summer grain production accounts for more than 20 % of the annual grain output. Summer grain harvests are harvested, and the annual economy will be supported.

Not long ago, the local meteorological staff compiled the meteorological information into a book and gave it to the agricultural machinery hand. In the "rear", the National Early Warning Information Release Center and the Agricultural Mechanization Management Department of the Agricultural and Rural Ministry and the National Meteorological Center jointly developed "Sanxia" machine collection of refined weather warning reminders of the product. More than 3 million people including agricultural machinery hands and agricultural planting households in key provinces in Henan Province provided services.

The exclusive service for agricultural machinery is a vivid epitome of the meteorological department and local linkage services. Beginning in December last year, the National Satellite Meteorological Center joined the National Meteorological Center and Henan, Shandong and other provincial meteorological bureaus to jointly compile the management regulations and technical guidance of winter wheat distribution remote sensing monitoring business. ) Meteorological bureau's division of labor and cooperation, producing 16 -meter space resolution winter wheat distribution map, which provides strong support for a number of businesses such as grain crop production and meteorological forecast in 2022 in 2022.

According to the forecast, Henan's fine machine collection preparation work, in advance the amount of agricultural machinery and the amount of operational demand are found in detail. Wheat machine collection operations are connected to villages, households, and plots. More than 95%of the area.

"The province organized 180,000 harvesters to invest in summer harvest operations, and issued 50,000 agricultural machinery cross -regional operation certificates to prioritize the first inspection of agricultural machinery across regions. According to the number of agricultural machinery, the harvest progress, timely release the needs of wheat machine collection operations and the needs of the operation of wheat machines and Dynamic information of machinery supply to guide the orderly flow of machinery. "Ling Zhongnan, a member of the Party Group of the Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department and director of the Provincial Agricultural Machinery Center in Henan Province.

Which crops can forecast

"I have worked for more than 40 years of wheat. The complication of the wheat seedlings before last year was not seen. In the end, there was no danger and a good job. The key is to scientifically disaster relief to respond to late broadcasts and let farmers know how to grow; scientific field pipes are precise. Guidance and let farmers know how to promote it. "Zhao Guangcai, a consultant of the instructive group of the Wheat experts of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, and researcher at the Institute of Cropology of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

The relationship between agricultural production and meteorological conditions is extremely close. "In the case of relatively stable crops, land fertility, and agricultural production management level, meteorological conditions are key factor affecting the changes in crop yield." Hou Yingyu, director of the Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Room of the National Meteorological Center, introduced. The above is the process of dynamic monitoring and evaluating meteorological conditions, especially meteorological disasters on agricultural production and output.

"For summer harvesting grain and oil (April, May), autumn harvest crops and annual grain (July, August), the National Meteorological Center will release two output forecast services related products, including the average production, planting area and planting area, and planting. Total production. "Hou Yingyu said that during the growing season of crops, the dynamic output of dynamic output will be produced monthly and issued by the crop. When the crops are harvested, the special service of the meteorological protection of agricultural activity is launched, and rolling forecast crops harvest the appropriate index.

Which crops can be predicted? "For example, winter wheat, rapeseed in summer harvest, rice (double season rice, one -season rice), corn (summer corn, spring corn), soybeans, cotton, etc. in the autumn harvest crops." Mori told reporters that, in terms of each crop, the meteorological department will analyze it in detail, evaluate the favorable and unfavorable weather conditions in the entire process of agricultural production, and put forward targeted opinions and preventive measures.

"We will also carry out foreign crop output forecast business, mainly covering American wheat, corn, soybeans, Indian rice, wheat, Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybean, Australian wheat, Canadian wheat, etc. Municipal and county -level meteorological departments also carry out special agricultural output forecast services in combination with local production.

For example, Hubei Meteorological, Agricultural and Rural Department and related universities have formed three expert groups: "food safety guarantee", "special crop service" and "aquaculture services", and have completed two rounds of joint agricultural survey activities, conducted field surveys 17 times, and targeted at target Weather and agricultural management give targeted suggestions; in Guizhou, the meteorological and agricultural and rural departments deepen the office mechanism of the co -departments and strengthen information interconnection; in Gansu, the Provincial Meteorological Bureau continues to deepen the pilot work of the meteorological service of the corn industry, improves the indicator system, and builds it. Major agricultural meteorological disaster risk diagnosis and evaluation model. How to predict food production

So, how is the grain production prediction?

"Simply put, by monitoring, building models and calculations." Hou Yingyu said that it is necessary to rely on ground observation, satellite remote sensing and other means to monitor the growth of crops, but also through the establishment of crop growth models to fully consider the influencing factors of the key period of growth. Go in, and finally give the forecast conclusion through calculation and other means -this is the same as that through numerical weather forecasting system forecasting weather.

In fact, the related technologies of food production forecast have already begun to develop.

"In the 1980s, the meteorological department developed a meteorological forecast model based on the return statistics and studied remote sensing estimates. Business system. "Hou Yingyu told reporters that in the early 21st century, my country carried out research on crop production dynamic forecasting technology research and realized business applications.

"It is precisely relying on these objective, quantitative, and dynamic crop output forecasts that decision -making departments and relevant management departments at all levels can grasp the dynamics of food production in time, formulate scientific macro -control policies, and arrange production in order to allocate, store, transport, import and export trade, and reasonably arrange production in production. Provide scientific basis, "Hou Yingyu said.

After years of accumulation of the National Meteorological Center, which undertakes this business, it has developed a diversified crop output forecast technology based on mathematical statistics, agricultural parameters, crop growth simulation models, and satellite remote sensing data, and established a production forecast business service system.

"Our forecast method is to use information such as meteorological conditions, crop growth, and agricultural meteorological disasters during crop growth, to build a production meteorological forecast model. At the same time, the meteorological satellite remote sensing technology is used to establish a crop remote sensing monitoring and remote sensing estimation model. "Hou Yingyu said that on the basis of the comprehensive forecast model prediction results, experts will analyze and make positive predictions on the objective forecast of grain production to obtain the final forecast conclusion.

"This year, my country's first application of high -scoring satellite remote sensing technology monitor the distribution of summer grain, which solves the problem of" crop distribution data is not fine "faced by the food output meteorological forecast." Hou Yingyu said.

The output prediction mechanism also makes crop output forecast more accurate. "In recent years, the accuracy of the country's total grain forecast is stable at about 99%." Li Sen introduced that the interconnection of technical cooperation, meteorology and agriculture among the national meteorological departments also helps to continuously improve my country's crop output forecast forecasting forecasting forecast Accuracy, timeliness and degree of refinement.

(Reporter Cui Xingyi, a correspondent Liu Yawen, a correspondent)

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