Poor demand terminal demand is expected to heat up the price of international iron ore below $ 100/ton a new low in the year

Reporter Wang Ning

The market's view of high inflation in overseas markets seems to be changing.

On July 15th, the price of iron ore at the Singapore Exchange (SGX) was hit hard. The $ 100/ton mark was lost during the session and hit a new low during the year. As of the press press, it closed at $ 96.6/ton, a decline of 3.5%.

A number of analysts told the Securities Daily that the current high inflation level of overseas markets has decreased slowly. The market has heated up again on the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike, which will have a certain impact on the economic recovery, and then suppress terminal demand. One of the representatives, the price fell. Looking forward to the second half of the year, there is still some room for iron ore at home and abroad. It is expected that the price of international iron ore will fall to about $ 90/ton meet the expectations.

The largest decline in the year is more than 42%

Since the beginning of this year, international iron ore prices have continuously reached a new high under the background of high -level overseas inflation, and rushed to $ 150/ton, $ 166.5/ton high. Surging range. Public data shows that as of now, the largest decline in SGX iron ore in August was 42.34%.

Recently, the main force of SGX iron ore recovered again in August and set the lowest point of $ 96/ton during the year. Regarding the current low price of international iron ore, Wu Jingchen, manager of the National Yuan Futures Research Consultation Department, told the Securities Daily reporter that the main reason for the current influence of iron ore prices is the market short atmosphere established by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. "From the perspective of the US dollar index and the iron ore Perment Index, the US dollar index rises, iron ore prices have fallen, so the macro level is to a certain extent to the price of ore."

From the perspective of the supply side, overseas demand in the first half of the year gradually deteriorated from the second quarter, and the price of raw materials was high, which led to the rapid shrinkage of steel mills and forced steel mills to reduce production. It can be seen from the global trend of crude steel output and raw iron output in addition to China ’s except for China’ s average Japanese and Japanese yields that the overall output has significantly reduced signals to weaken demand.

Sheng Wenyu, director of the Black Department of Jinxin Futures, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the current overseas economic recession is expected to intensify, and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike process is faster than expected. Jiakong head configuration. At the same time, the price of steel has fallen at a high level and has begun to prove the expectations of global crude steel consumption. Iron ore, as the main variety of global pricing and circulation, has also been under pressure.

Song Tianhao, a black researcher, said to reporters that domestic iron ore prices have currently followed the outer disk downward trend. According to the current inner market price level, the corresponding international iron ore price should be around $ 90/ton. It is still relatively overestimated.

In the second half of the year, domestic iron ore prices are under pressure

"Domestic iron ore prices are also affected by the weakening of demand." Wu Jingchen said that the number of shipments and the reality of accumulation also dragged the prices of ore. In the second half of the year, the overall iron ore may show a weak supply and weak pattern, and the price will also be easily declined and difficult to rise, mainly in several aspects: first, loose supply, there are expected incremental production increase in the second half of the year in the second half of the year; The demand for interference in environmental protection policies in autumn and winter; third, the demand for steel is still difficult to improve. "Although the future price of iron ore will rebound in the second half of the year, the whole is still the following."

"In the second half of the year, iron ore can be used as a black -based empty variety." Song Tianhao said that the level of inflation in overseas markets is high, and the Fed's accelerated interest rate hike will lead to the tightening of global liquidity. Commodity prices; and from the perspective of supply and demand, the overall transport volume of the four major mines in the first half of the year is low. On the basis of not lowered the annual transportation goals, there is a high supply incremental expectation in the second half of the year. At the same time At present, the second half of the year is facing a large pressure reduction pressure, and domestic iron ore prices will be under pressure.

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