The central bank's 4 consecutive months is an equal volume sequel to MLF experts expect that LPR will not change in July

Reporter Liu Qi

On July 15th, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") launched a 100 billion yuan interim borrowing convenience (MLF) operation and the 3 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation to maintain the banking system's liquidity reasonable and abundant. In view of the fact that there were 3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan MLF that day, the central bank achieved zero investment and zero returns. At this point, the central bank has been an equal volume for four consecutive months.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing said in an interview with the Securities Daily that MLF equal operations in July mainly originated from the current market liquidity is still at a reasonable and abundant level, and no MLF "increased water replenishment"; since July, July; The regulatory authorities are guiding the market interest rates to move moderately through other policy tools. At the same time, from the perspective of stabilizing market expectations and helping economic restoration, the MLF operation in July has not shrunk.

Zou Lan, the director of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Department, said at a press conference held by the National Office of the State Council a few days ago that the current 7 -day repurchase of weighted average interest rates (DR007) at 7 days of deposit institutions at the interbank market is about 1.6%, which is lower than the open market operating interest rate. Sexual maintains at a more reasonable and slightly more level.

In terms of price, since the MLF operation interest rate was reduced to 2.85%in January this year, it has maintained to this day. Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that this is mainly affected by the two aspects of internal and external factors.

He told reporters that on the one hand, the inflation data in the United States in June "exploded" again, and the expected increase of interest rate hikes and global entry into monetary policy tightening cycle will cause the risk of capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation. Compressed the loose space of my country's monetary policy. Under the consideration of "internal and external balance", maintaining stability of policy interest rates is the optimal choice. On the other hand, the domestic CPI entered the rising channel year -on -year, the weight of the price increased, and the "interest rate cut" was constrained.

Looking forward to the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) in July, analysts are generally expected to remain unchanged. Wen Bin said that the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in July, which means that the price foundation of LPR that month has not changed. At the same time, the current interest difference between banks. Under the environment where the current credit supply and demand relationship is improved, due to the consideration of stable net interest margins, the motivation of bank LPR quotation is not strong.

"The LPR quotation of more than 5 years in May was reduced by 15 basis points, which is large. The policy surface will observe the stimulus effect of the interest rate reduction measure on the property market. The influence of comes. It is expected that the quotation of LPR quotes of 1 year and 5 years in July may remain unchanged. "Wang Qing said.

However, Wang Qing believes that in the third quarter, LPR, especially LPR, may still be moderately lowered at the same time as MLF interest rates. Since the establishment of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates in April, the cost of bank deposits has declined significantly, and it is possible to promote the price difference between the quotation to reduce the LPR quotation point. According to the latest data from the central bank, in June this year, the average interest rate of new deposits in the banks across the country was about 2.32%, which was 0.12 percentage points from April. Considering that deposits account for about 70 % of the bank liabilities, this will drive the cost of bank liabilities to decline significantly.

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