Interview with Zhao Fuchang of the Chinese Academy of Finance: Investment continues to rise due to policy support and the effective prevention and control of the epidemic.

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic operation data in the first half of the year.

In the first half of the year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 27143 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%year -on -year. In the second quarter, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 4.2%year -on -year. Among them, in April increased by 1.8%, the growth rate accelerated to 4.6%in May, and the growth rate in June increased further to 5.6%. In June, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.95%month -on -month.

What are the highlights of my country's fixed asset investment in the first half of the year? In what areas will it be in the second half of the year? With these issues, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" (hereinafter referred to as "NBD") conducted a telephone interview with Zhao Fuchang, director of the Finance and National Governance Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Finance and Sciences.

Photo source: respondent picture confession

The continuous recovery of investment has benefited from policy support and the effective prevention and control of the epidemic

NBD: What are the highlights of the fixed asset investment in the first half of the year?

Zhao Fuchang: First of all, the investment data in the first half of the year itself is a highlight, because the main contribution of the "three -driving carriage" that drives economic growth is investment and consumption, and consumption is still in negative growth. Therefore A data of the eye. This is an indispensable for promoting economic stability. Economic growth in the second quarter and 2.5%of the economic growth in the first half of the year is indispensable.

Secondly, from the perspective of structural points, manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment played a pivotal role. Manufacturing investment increased by 10.4%, and infrastructure investment increased by 7.1%, which were relatively bright. This ensured that the entire fixed asset investment could achieve a 6.1%growth of 5.4%. This can also be confirmed from the data viewed by the sub -industry. Among the industrial investment data, the investment in the first industry increased by 4.0%, the investment in the second industry increased by 10.9%, and the investment in the tertiary industry increased by 4.0%.

The third more prominent is high -tech industrial investment, an increase of 20.2%. Whether it is the manufacturing industry's high -tech investment or the high -tech investment of the service industry, the growth is very high, an increase of 23.8%and 12.6%, respectively. In fact, high -tech investment has been distinctive in the past two years. Of course, this is the result of my country's economic transformation and upgrading and policy support.

In addition, investment in social fields is also considerable as a considerable increase, of which health and education investment increased by 34.5%and 10.0%, respectively. This is mainly because we have increased their investment in sanitation and education.

NBD: What do you think of the continuous rise of fixed asset investment is mainly due to the factors?

Zhao Fuchang: I think there are two main reasons, one is the support of the policy, and the other is the effective prevention and control of the epidemic.

The first is that the policy is continuously intense. After some policies are introduced, there are corresponding measures to ensure that the policy can take effect and enable investment to effectively implement it.

For example, our budget investment is about trillion yuan, and local government special bonds are 3.65 trillion yuan. In the "Policy and Measures for the Economy" issued by the State Council, policy development banks should optimize the loan structure and put more longer -term loans; support China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. to issue 300 billion yuan railway construction bonds; support The aviation industry issued 200 billion yuan of bonds. The recent executive meeting of the State Council has decided to use policy and development financial instruments to raise 300 billion yuan through the issuance of financial bonds to supplement the capital of major projects or bridge the capital of special debt projects. These policies have actively promoted the effectiveness of investment.

Secondly, the continuous rise of investment depends on the effective epidemic prevention and control. The epidemic not only has negative effects on consumption, but also has significant impact on investment. From the perspective of data, the epidemic in Shanghai and other places in April has a greater impact on investment. In May, the epidemic stabilized and the data improved. By June, the epidemic was relatively controlled, and the investment data continued to rise. In addition, from this perspective, after the epidemic is effectively controlled and controlled, the investment will rise further.

You can make efforts from two places from private investment and foreign investment

NBD: What are the areas of fixed asset investment in the second half of the year?

Zhao Fuchang: In fact, the main point is to see where the shortcomings of the last half of the year. Judging from the investment data in the first half of the year, the growth rate of private investment and foreign investment is relatively low. Therefore, to make efforts from this, on the one hand, it is necessary to make their money investment so that credit funds can enter physical enterprises, especially small and medium -sized and micro Enterprises; also important aspects are to allow them to have stable expectations. Unstable expectations are important factors affecting private investment and foreign investment. Therefore, there are relevant policy guarantees, including the guarantee of factors. If the policy is in place, it will still have a certain promotion effect on investment.

In addition, due to the large scale of special debt, the fields of special debt have been relaxed. In addition to the investment in traditional infrastructure projects and social fields, investment in the fields of new infrastructure can also be moderate. Expert, and this is also in line with economic transformation and developing towards high -quality directions.

NBD: To achieve the annual economic growth goals, in addition to stable investment, do you think you need to introduce some new steady growth measures?

Zhao Fuchang: In terms of investment, many policies have been introduced, but there is still a process of policy landing. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of the policy and make funds in place as soon as possible, including capital, land and other related policies such as related policies. After ensuring the introduction of the policy, the money can be spent as soon as possible to form a physical workload. In addition to continuing investment, it is necessary to stimulate consumption. In the first half of the year, consumption was still negative. A lot of policies that promoted consumption in the early stage have been introduced, such as policy support for promoting automobile consumption. These policies are actually relatively strong support for the automotive field.

In addition to continuing to promote car consumption, it should also promote consumption of home appliances, because the industry chain of home appliances is relatively long. In addition, relax the restrictions on the social service industry such as tourism, hotels. At present, the margins of these industry policies are relaxed, but there may be restrictions on factors such as epidemic prevention and control in actual travel. If the policy can truly relax and let the consumption potential such as tourism, hotels, etc. release it, it is also a growth space.

Daily Economic News

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