Once an interview with Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China World Trade Organization Research Association: The growth rate of foreign trade in the second half of the year is expected to be higher than the growth of national economic growth.

Despite the impact of the epidemic, my country's foreign trade in the first half of the year still handed over a beautiful transcript. Not only did the scale of import and export hit a record high, but the import and export in June also returned to double -digit growth.

On July 15, the National New Office held a press conference on the operation of the National Economic Operation in the first half of 2022. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the second quarter, the total import and export of goods in my country increased by 8.1%year -on -year, maintaining a rapid growth. From a monthly perspective, the total import and export of goods in April and May increased by 0.1%and 9.6%year -on -year; the growth rate accelerated to 14.3%in June. The foreign reserves are generally stable. In the second quarter, the balance of foreign exchange reserves continued to stabilize more than $ 3 trillion.

In the first half of the year, what was the reason why my country's foreign trade imports and exports hit a record high? Since the second quarter, what factors have been affected by the rise of import and export growth month by month? What is the trend of foreign trade import and export in my country in the second half of the year?

With the above -mentioned questions, the "Daily Economic News" (hereinafter referred to as NBD) reporters interviewed Huo Jianguo, vice chairman of the China World Trade Organization Research Association.

Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China World Trade Organization Research Association, provided by the respondent

There is no large fluctuation in the four major markets of foreign trade

NBD: Despite the impact of the epidemic, in the first half of this year, the scale of foreign trade imports and exports in my country still reached a record high, and the import and export returned to double -digit growth in June. What do you think is the main reason?

Huo Jianguo: It should be said that the epidemic has indeed a greater impact on foreign trade. Especially in April, the total import and export of foreign trade increased by 0.1%year -on -year, which was almost zero.

However, during this epidemic, the central government attached great importance to the relationship between the preparation of the epidemic prevention and control and helping the enterprise's relief and decompression. The adverse factors, such as opening up green channels to ensure that foreign trade enterprises are preferred. Overall the policy of re -production and re -production and opening up logistics is effective. In May, a rapid rebound in my country's exports was actually a recovery growth after the epidemic.

In June, it continued the growth of rapid rebound in May. According to the predictions of relevant agencies, the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports in May and June exceeded expectations, which also shows that the stabilization of foreign trade policies is targeted and exerted practical results.

On the other hand, the majority of foreign trade enterprises, especially private enterprises that occupy half of the country, have made great efforts to protect orders and markets, overcoming many difficulties. From a data point of view, the growth rate of import and export of private foreign trade enterprises in my country is higher than the national average.

NBD: From the perspective of monthly, imports and exports in April and May increased by 0.1%and 9.6%year -on -year, respectively. June was 14.3%, showing a trend of recovery monthly. Can you think this situation can be maintained?

Huo Jianguo: In the first half of the year, the total import and export of foreign trade in my country increased by 9.8%year -on -year. In terms of monthly, it was basically presenting a "V -type" trend. I think that the second half of the year will continue this recoverable growth trend.

In the first half of the year, in addition to the policy effects and the efforts of foreign trade companies, we found that although the United States faces high inflation and Europe is facing economic decline, the overall changes in external markets are not great. The demand for orders in the US market is basically normal. Under the RCEP agreement, economic and trade cooperation is also accelerating.

Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States, including the four countries along the “Belt and Road”, are the basic market for Chinese foreign trade. There are no major fluctuations in the four major markets, and the basic market in Chinese foreign trade and external markets can be stabilized.

Judging from the growth rate of the monthly export and export volume since this year, it presents an obvious V -type

The growth rate of foreign trade in the second half of the year is expected to be higher than the growth rate of national economic growth

NBD: Recently, the topic of "grabbing orders" in Southeast Asian countries is relatively hot. However, customs data show that the export growth rate of labor -intensive products in my country in the first half of the year is as high as 13.5%. Does the export of labor -intensive products in my country still have competitiveness?

Huo Jianguo: In the first half of the year, the reason why my country's basic foreign trade was able to stabilize, in addition to mechanical and electrical products, labor -intensive products exports also played an important role. The export scale of labor -intensive products in my country has reached 2 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 20%of the total exports, and the export competitiveness of Chinese labor -intensive products is also increasing.

Regarding the topic of order loss or order transfer, I think that the impact of Vietnam, India and other countries on Chinese labor -intensive products may not be as great as some institutions. The stability and toughness of China's industrial chain and supply chain are still very strong, and foreign trade data in the first half of the year can also confirm this.

It is worth noting that in recent years, my country ’s labor -intensive products are in the process of transformation and upgrading, that is, more branded and quality. As long as this transformation and upgrading is adhered to, labor -intensive products in China and Vietnam will not be at the same track level in the future. Of course, this also requires us to pay more attention to the formation of its own advantages in creating the influence of the brand, including the advantages of cost.

NBD: You just mentioned that foreign trade is expected to continue the growth trend in the first half of the year. Can you predict the specific foreign trade trend?

Huo Jianguo: Generally speaking, foreign trade will maintain a moderate growth trend in the second half of the year. Under normal circumstances, it will be higher than the growth rate of the national economy and contribute to stimulating economic growth.

At present, the Chinese economy wants to reach 5.5%of the annual expected growth goals. In the third and fourth quarters, the growth rate of GDP needs to reach more than 8%. It should be said to face certain challenges.From the perspective of foreign trade, with the implementation of a policy and measures for the stability of the country's economy, the further release of external demand, coupled with the smooth flow of sea transportation and logistics, the growth rate of foreign trade import and export is expected to remain between 8%-10%.We also have to see that the external market still has certain uncertainty.On the one hand, what levels will stay at the US dollar rate hike, how the international commodity prices fluctuate, and the trend of the Russian and Ukraine war are uncertain.On the other hand, if the inflation situation in the second half of the year has cool down, the effect of price factors will also weaken in terms of pushing up my country's exports.

Daily Economic News

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