Interview with Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center: In the second half of the year, it is necessary to have more effective and accurate policies in stabilizing consumption in the second half of the year.

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released news that initial accounting, the total domestic product value of 56264.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29246.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%. In the first and second quarter, the economy was on the pressure of the economy.

How to evaluate the economic transcript that has just been announced? In the future, what kind of motivation for the Chinese economy to achieve the annual scheduled goals and challenges will face?

In this regard, Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, accepted an exclusive interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as "NBD") on the phone.

Photo source: Every reporter Zhang Jian (data map)

You need to deal with the four aspects in the second half of the year

NBD: Data shows that the growth rate of my country's GDP in the first half of the year was 2.5%, which achieved positive growth. How do you look at this performance? The growth rate of 2.5%has a certain distance from the previous year's economic goals. In the second half of the year, what are the aspects of our aspects, so as to achieve the expected goals as much as possible?

Zhang Yansheng: From the perspective of economic data in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, the performance in April was in a deep decline. Back to the critical point in May, the data in June showed a situation of basic stability.

For the second half of the year, how to maintain the development of stable words and steady and advanced, the core issue is to restore the Chinese economy to the following four aspects.

The first is the demand. The policies in the first half of the year are to stabilize investment and market entities, which is good in terms of effect. But for consumption, it is not enough to rely on the main body of the market alone. Therefore, in the second half of the year, some more effective and accurate policies are needed in terms of stable consumption, such as the actual difficulties of low -income people, a series of measures for stable consumption, or implementing consumer vouchers policies at the local level are worth considering. Essence

The second is to stabilize the service industry. The core of the stability of the service industry is to stabilize the integrated industry in the productive service industry and the life service industry. In the productive service industry, it is mainly logistics, warehousing and transportation industries. The living service industry mainly includes catering, tourism, aviation, transportation, etc.

For example, there are still many cases of flight cancellation, and people's travel has not returned to normalization. This has caused some difficulties in the industry.

The third is to stabilize market entities and small and medium -sized enterprises. The key to this aspect is to reasonably adjust a series of policies in the second half of the year to protect the more fragile industries.

The fourth is to take precision policies and take targeted measures to prevent systemic risks.

Economic goals are a expected goal. I think that as long as the word is stable, it is very good to maintain the economy in a reasonable range.

Import and export performance will continue the June situation

NBD: The impact and impact of the epidemic on consumption is very great. Where do you think we can start and restore consumption and stabilize the economy as soon as possible?

Zhang Yansheng: It should be seen that in the context of the global epidemic, the current state will inevitably affect the lives of a considerable number of people.

For example, the income of civil aviation practitioners depends mainly on travel. If passenger travel is reduced, their income will be greatly affected, and life will not be able to get basic guarantees, which will inevitably affect individual consumption. For many industries that are affected by the epidemic, such as the catering industry, this situation is common. The consumption willingness of practitioners in these industries has been greatly restricted.

Therefore, in the second half of the year, the epidemic prevention and control and restoration of economic and social order must be coordinated, and scientific resistance must be emphasized.

NBD: Import and export has long been an important driving force for my country's economic development. The latest released data show that in the first half of the year, the total import and export of goods was 19802.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 9.4%. Among them, exports were 11141.7 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2%. This performance should be quite strong. In your opinion, can my country's import and export situation continue?

Zhang Yansheng: From the data from the second quarter of import and export data, in April, the import and export of foreign trade in my country increased by 0.1%year -on -year. In May, the import and export of foreign trade in my country increased by 9.6%year -on -year, and the growth rate in June further increased to 14.3%. It can be said that from the data point of view, it has undergone changes in "re -creation -critical -make up for previous declines".

In my opinion, after July, the normal situation of import and export is to go along the situation in June.

Of course, we must also consider the following two factors: one is the uncertainty brought by the more outbreaks, and the other is whether there will be a recession around the world. If the western economy has increased inflation in the second half of the year, the external demand has shrunk, the global economy has fallen into decline, and it will naturally have a great impact on my country's import and export.

Daily Economic News

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