In the first half of the year, the economy increased by 2.5%year -on -year. Has the most difficult period passed?

Today (July 15), the National Bureau of Statistics released economic operation data in the first half of this year. Preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first half of the year was 56264.2 billion yuan, which was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29246.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%. In the first and second quarter, the economy was on the pressure of the economy.

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in general, a series of solid stabilization of economic policies has obvious results. my country's economy overwhelmed the unexpected factors of overwhelming factors, showing a stabilization and recovery trend. Especially in the second quarter, economic growth was achieved. It has stabilized the economic market, and the results are hard to come.

Experts interviewed told the reporter of China News that the economic growth rate of 2.5%in the first half of the year was basically within the expected range. The economic situation has undergone some positive changes under the promotion of a series of policies. "At present, the most difficult stage has passed." Economic growth is expected to rise in the third and fourth quarters.

In the second quarter, the first half of the year

But achieved a stable recovery

In the first quarter of this year, my country's economy achieved a growth rate of 4.8%. The latest data showed that in the second quarter, it fell to 0.4%. Fu Linghui said that since this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe, the Ukraine crisis has evolved, and the domestic epidemic situation has been distributed multiple, and sudden factors exceed expectations. The downward pressure on the second quarter increased significantly.

△ Chongqing Yuzhou Customs Customs officers quickly inspect the release of cross -border e -commerce B2B export goods.

"The performance in January and February was still eye -catching. It was obviously stressful in March and April. It began to rebound in May. Therefore, the entire second quarter may be the most stressed and most difficult stage throughout the year." Lian Ping, Dean of the Institute and the Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, reviewed the overall trend of the economy in the first half of the year.

Faced with the complex environment, Fu Linghui said that in various regions and departments, various departments have efficiently coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, and effectively implement a policy of stabilizing the economy. The national economy has stabilized and recovered, the high -quality development situation continues, and the overall social situation has remained stable. He emphasized that the positive growth in the second quarter was obtained under the background of the decline in the main production demand indicators in April and May. It should be said that it was very difficult to reflect the strong toughness of my country's economy.

In the first half of this year, in terms of industries, the added value of the first industry was 2913.7 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.0%; the added value of the second industry was 2286.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 30486.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29246.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%. In terms of industries, the added value of the first industry in the second quarter was 1818.3 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 4.4%; the added value of the second industry was 12245 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 15183.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%.

Specific to the monthly economic indicators, Lian Ping said that it stopped the decline in April in May, and in June, many data performed well. For example, when the situation of the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased from 6.7%to an increase of 3.1%from the previous month, and a significant rebound occurred. From the perspective of investment, infrastructure investment in the first half of the year increased by 7.1%year -on -year, which was 1-5 from 1-5. The month is accelerated by 0.4 percentage points.

"Especially in the field of investment, including infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment, it has further played a role in stabilizing the macroeconomic." Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, told the reporter of China Report that manufacturing investment has been high -speed high -speed since last year. Growth has also been rising since this year. Taking the purchasing manager index as an example, in the past two months, it climbed one after another, exceeding 50%in June.

It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, high -tech industrial investment and high -tech manufacturing investment have achieved more than 20%of growth -on the one hand, it reflects the further optimization of the economic structure and the manufacturing structure, and on the other hand, it also indicates that the relevant related The investment growth rate in the field is motivated.

Xu Hongcai and even evenly believe that a series of policies have helped my country's economic toughness. Lian Ping suggested that the next stage should be more powerful to use policies to promote economic growth, so that economic development can better restore the trend on the original track. Xu Hongcai predicts that the economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to take advantage of the situation. It is expected to be above 5%. After continuing to consolidate the fourth quarter, the growth rate may be higher, and the average annual economic growth rate will be about 4%.

There are vowial values ​​in exports

Consumption in the second half of the year has favorable conditions

Data show that the total import and export of goods in my country increased by 9.4%year -on -year, of which exports increased by 13.2%. The trade surplus in June was $ 97.9 billion, a record high.

At present, the global economy is in the risk of stagflation. In Xu Hongcai's view, the old -fashioned manufacturing power Germany, as well as Japan, the United Kingdom, France, etc., have developed a trade deficit. Among them, Germany has appeared for the first time in the past 30 years. "But our trade surplus is expanding, indicating that my country's manufacturing industry has greater competitiveness, and the toughness of the industry chain is also relatively strong. This is also a contribution to the international community itself." Xu Hongcai told the China Reporter.

It is worth noting that the import and export situation in the second half of the year may face some uncertainty. "It is clearly seen that the current imports are relatively weak and reflect the insufficient demand in China. As the Fed and the European Central Bank will raise interest rates further in July, my country's exports may fall." Xu Hongcai said that export data in May and June was bright One of the reasons for the eyes is that there are many accumulation of orders in March and April, so the foreign trade situation in the third and fourth quarters should not be too optimistic. Lian Ping believes that in terms of comparison, interest rate hikes may affect the world economy in the fourth quarter. In this way, the global economic growth rate will inevitably bring a decline in trade growth. "As a major trade exporter, the pressure on foreign trade in the fourth quarter of my country is also greater than the third quarter."

In terms of consumption, the epidemic has been distributed in many places this year, and it has continued to restrict residents' going out and consumption. Data show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year were 21043.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 0.7%. However, from the perspective of the trend, the increase in the first two months was 6.7%, and the increase in March-May to 3.5%, -1.1.1%and -6.7%, respectively, and rose to 3.1%in June, achieving the bottoming rebound.

△ On June 7, tourists visited in the Qibao Ancient Town Scenic Area in Minhang District, Shanghai.

In Lianping's view, there are favorable external conditions in the second half of the year. On the one hand, the re -production, resumption of production, and the re -commercial re -market are continuing to advance in an orderly manner, and on the other hand, the motivation comes from the policy surface. He said that in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, there will be relatively large policy support, including the issuance of consumer coupons and promoting car consumption. At present, car consumption has also appeared in a good momentum -the car consumption in June reached 455.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9%year -on -year, which is much higher than the overall increase in the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the month.

"There are also many consumption scenarios in the second half of the year, there are many festivals and various consumption activities. It is expected that consumption will return to positive growth in the third quarter, and further repair in the fourth quarter." The level before the epidemic is unlikely, and the epidemic will still suppress consumer behavior in stages.

In the first half of this year, the sales area and sales of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 22.2%and 28.9%, respectively. In Lian Ping's view, the main reason for the current downward pressure on the economy is that in addition to the epidemic affecting consumption, there is also the downward of real estate. He believes that as real estate sales and investment have stabilized in the second half of the year, real estate -related consumption is expected to gradually recover.

Recently, the owners of many places have attracted attention due to the extension of the real estate delayed delivery, and the CBRC responded that it would guide the market -oriented risk disposal of financial institutions. The experts interviewed said that the phenomenon is currently local and the risks are still controllable, but they cannot avoid problems. Effective measures should be taken to prevent risk spread to impact banks and the entire financial system.

Actively respond to external risks

Maximize release policy effect

At the press conference, Fu Linghui looked forward to the second half of the year that with the good situation of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the promotion of the policy effect, my country's economic volume, wide market space, sufficient development of toughness, dividends in reform, and strong governance capabilities will be. To further play, the economy is expected to resume development. At the same time, Fu Linghui also pointed out that there are still many external instability and uncertainty factors, and the domestic triple pressure still exists.

Xu Hongcai admitted to reporters that there were still some challenges and risks in the second half of the year. First of all, input inflation cannot be taken lightly. "At present, there are multiple factors such as global grain, oil, natural gas, and coal prices. Some of the factors are not what we can."

△ On February 10, the price of oil products at a gas station in New York, USA.

Earlier, the United States had just announced the consumer price index in June this year -after more than 8%for three consecutive months, it has reached a new high of nearly 41 years with a 9.1%increase. Analysts said that the continuous high -inflation will strengthen the market's expectations of the market to further raise interest rates on the Fed. "After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the renminbi had a certain depreciation pressure. After the global financial system fluctuated, we must prevent and control input financial risks." Xu Hongcai said.

Lian Ping also believes that under the influence of high -end inflation and the Federal Reserve's great rate of raising interest rates, the possibility of a stall in the second half of the year has risen sharply, which may drag out exports to decline. Global inflation has formed input inflation pressure on my country. Monetary policy impacts the RMB exchange rate and capital flow.

In terms of supply chain, the disturbance factors come from international and domestic. Xu Hongcai, a reporter from the China News, said that the conflict between Russia and the United States and the United States attempting to reconstruct the global supply chain have deteriorated to a certain extent. In China, some control measures in some areas of epidemics have hindered the unblocked supply chain.

"Stabilizing the supply chain industry chain, and the work of replenishment chain must continue to do it, which involves the real economy." Xu Hong has noticed that some foreign -invested companies in the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao region and the Yangtze River Delta have begun to move outward, "Although although although There is no wave of formation, but pay attention to the signs of this regard. "

In addition to the above challenges, the experts interviewed all conveyed the domestic disadvantage factor currently facing reporters. For example, the unemployment rate of the 16-24 -year -old youth of 16-24, which is refreshed by the month, is still high, and the 160 million market entities need to be stable.

This year's preset GDP growth targets in my country are 5.5%. For how much possibility of achieving this goal, Fu Linghui replied at the press conference that from the second half of the year Development and effectively promoting the effectiveness of various policies and measures to stabilize the economy are constantly emerging, and my country's economy is expected to continue to rise in a reasonable range.Lian Ping has made predictions. With the continuous development of active fiscal policy and stable monetary policy reverse cyclical adjustment, the intensity and various stable growth policies are accelerated.EssenceIf under the support of strong incremental policies, it is expected to pull to more than 5%, approaching or reaching the expected growth goals, and continuing to maintain a high level of growth in major economies around the world.

Xu Hongcai believes that the current policies can be described as "everything". It is necessary to maintain coherence and strengthen inspections on the policies that have introduced them. In particular, we must increase the implementation of a package of policies and measures.

Written: "China News" reporter Chen Ke

Picture source: Xinhuanet

Responsible: Xu Hao

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