Wen Bin et al.: Macroeconomic recovery, the policy will enter the wait -and -see period in the short term

Zhongxin Jingwei July 15th. Question: Macroeconomic recovery, in the short term, policy will enter the wait -and -see period

Author Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank

Wang Jingwen Director of Macro Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the main economic data in the first half of the year. On the whole, the epidemic rebound has been effectively controlled, the process of resumed production is accelerated, the backlog demand is concentrated, and the policy effect continues to exert it, driving the economy out of the trough.

GDP: 0.4%year -on -year in the second quarter, basically in line with expectations

Since the second quarter, the Chinese economy has encountered a serious impact of Omikon's epidemic, and many cities, including Shanghai, have implemented static management. The main economic indicators such as industry, service industry, and consumption in the month have fallen into negative growth. The residential departments have appeared in the signs of "decline in balance sheets". Economic difficulties have a larger impact in some aspects and to a certain extent.

On April 29, after the Politburo meeting made a more prominent position after the Politburo meeting made "the epidemic should be defended, the economy must be stable, and the development is safe". At the end of May, the State Council issued the "Policy and Measures for the Economy" and held a telephone conference on the national market to stabilize the economic market. Policies have been controlled by superimposed epidemics. In May, the decline in major economic indicators narrowed in May. In June, the economic stabilization rose and recovered, helping to achieve positive growth of about 0.4%in the second quarter, which is extremely difficult.

Production: Industrial growth has rebounded, and the service industry has gradually recovered

The added value of industries above designated size in June increased by 3.9%year -on -year, better than 0.7%last month, but slightly lower than market expectations; increased by 0.84%from the previous month. The fastest growth rate is the fastest.

Among them, the rise of the manufacturing industry has become the main driving force. Among the three gates, the manufacturing industry increased by 3.4%year -on -year, better than 0.1%of the previous month. The process of resurgence and re -production and the rise of exports have become the main promotion factor. The automobile manufacturing industry rose from -7.0%last month to 16.2%, the most obvious improvement. The mining industry increased by 8.7%year -on -year, higher than 7.0%of last month; power, thermal, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 3.3%year -on -year, better than 0.2%last month.

In June, the national service industry production index was 1.3%year-on-year, which was higher than -5.1%last month, ending the negative growth status for three consecutive months. The monthly service industry business activity index was 54.3%, which was higher than 7.2 percentage points last month. It also ended the state of being lower than the glory line for three consecutive months.

Since June, the situation of epidemic prevention and control has improved, and dynamic clearance has been achieved in many places, which undoubtedly helps the service industry to recover.

Consumption: Turn in advance, overtake market expectations

In June, the retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.1%year-on-year, which was significantly better than -6.7%of the last month, which greatly exceeded market expectations. During the epidemic in 2020, the community was used for 6 months to turn it to the positive; it took only 3 months this year.

From the perspective of the main consumer goods performance: First, the must -choose consumption growth rate has fallen, such as grain, oil and food increased by 9.0%, slower than 12.3%last month; beverage category increased by 1.9%, which was slower than 7.7%last month. Second, optional consumption rebound obviously, such as gold and silver jewelry, clothing, and cosmetics, all from the negative growth of last month; the third is that real estate -related consumption is still weak. The furniture category is -6.6%year-on-year, and the building materials category is -4.9%year-on-year. The growth rate has improved compared with the previous month, but it is still slower than the overall growth rate. 8.3%last month.

The reason why consumption is obviously better is because the consumption scenario continues to be repaired; the second is to stabilize the effect of the consumer policy; the third is that the consumption demand of the backlog of the epidemic during the previous few months was released. However, after centralized demand is released, we are still cautious about consumption performance in the next stage.

The consumption willingness of economic entities is still not high. According to the data of the central bank's survey, the proportion of residents who tended to "more savings" in the second quarter increased to 58.3%, and the refresh was the highest level since statistics. As of the end of June, residents' households increased by 10.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.88 trillion year -on -year, all reached a record high in the same period, showing that the preventive savings tendency of the residential sector was still high.

Employment pressure still cannot be ignored. In June, the urban survey unemployment rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 5.5%. The survey rate of the survey of 31 large cities also dropped from 6.9%to 5.8%, showing that the stable employment policy was effective, but the unemployment rate was still significantly higher than the pre -epidemic level. In particular, the unemployment rate of population aged 16 to 24 increased from 18.4%last month to 19.3%, and continued to refresh the highest level of statistics, which may continue to affect the consumption tendency of related families.

Investment: Infrastructure investment continues to rise, the marginal improvement of manufacturing investment improves

In the first half of the year, fixed asset investment increased by 6.1%year-on-year, and continued to fall from 6.2%from January to May. From the perspective of structure, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment and the year -on -year growth rate of the month have been rebounded. The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment has slowed down. The monthly monthly improvement has improved.

In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment increased by 7.1%year-on-year, higher than 6.7%higher than January-May, which basically met expectations. The year -on -year growth rate in a single month rose from 7.2%last month to 8.1%.

The growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to rise. First, due to the effectiveness of the traffic and logistics policies, the construction progress was guaranteed; the second was due to the guarantee of the source of funds. The issuance of special bonds has been accelerated, and it has been basically issued at the end of June; the National Frequently increased policy banks of 800 billion yuan in credit lines and issued 300 billion yuan of special construction bonds to further supplement the source of infrastructure project funds; third, the project gradually landed. In addition to the 102 major projects planned by the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan", a package of stable economic policies determined that a number of water conservancy, especially large water conservancy, especially large -scale water drainage irrigation, transportation, old community reconstruction, and underground comprehensive pipe galleries, which also supported infrastructure. In the first half of the year, manufacturing investment increased by 10.4%year-on-year, below 10.6%below January-May, which basically met expectations. The year -on -year growth rate in a single month rose slightly from 7.1%last month to 9.9%.

The margin of the growth rate of manufacturing investment has risen, on the one hand, the marginal of terminal demand has improved. In particular, the exports remain tough, the infrastructure investment is stable, and the manufacturing investment has been pulled forward. On the other hand, due to the disruption of logistics and supply chains in the epidemic, the increase in raw materials has slowed down, and the cost impact of enterprises is relatively reduced. In addition, the policy continues to guide the financial industry to increase its support for the manufacturing industry, and the continuous decline in loan interest rate levels will also help the growth rate of manufacturing investment.

However, whether manufacturing investment can continue to rise, it remains to be observed, and subsequent data verification is needed.

Real estate: The sales improvement is limited, and it is still in the process of finding the bottom

In the first half of the year, real estate development investment increased by -5.4%, which continued to decline from -4.0%from January to May, weaker than market expectations. In the month of June, the development investment was -9.4%year-on-year, which continued to fall from -7.8%last month.

From the perspective of sales, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the first half of the year was -22.2%year-on-year, which was better than -23.6%from January to May; the sales of commercial housing was -28.9%year-on-year, which was also better than -31.5%from January to May. In June, the residential department increased 416.7 billion yuan for medium- and long -term loans, the highest level since February; the year -on -year increase of 98.9 billion yuan, the lowest level since January, showing that the residential department's willingness to increase leverage has resumed.

From the perspective of the production side, the new construction area of ​​the first half of the year was -34.4%year-on-year, weaker than -30.6%from January to May.

From the perspective of the source of funds, the funds of real estate companies in the first half of the year were 25.3%year-on-year, which was slightly better than-25.8%from January to May. Among them, domestic loans were 27.2%year-on-year, weaker than -26.0%from January to May; self-raised funds -7.7%, weaker than -7.2%from January to May; other funds -32.9%, slightly better than from January to May -34.6%. Only the growth rate of other funds mainly based on deposits and pre -collection and personal mortgage loans has improved, and the fund status of housing companies has not improved.

Generally speaking, with the support of the central bank to reduce the interest rate of the first home loan and LPR of more than 5 years, the demand for house purchase of the residents has a centralized release in June, driving the sales end to improve. However, from the perspective of high -frequency data, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium -sized cities in July declined again, showing that residents' willingness to increase leverage is not strong.

The pulse recovery of real estate sales has not fundamentally improved the source of the funds of real estate companies, nor does it reverse the weak confidence of housing companies, and the market has not bottomed out.

Policies: Keep watching in the short term

It was extremely difficult to rise in economic stability in June. However, the foundation of economic recovery is unstable, and there are many uncertain factors in the development environment. It is necessary to continue to work hard to stabilize the economic market.

At the middle of the year, we have three basic judgments.

First, the economy will still go through a period of rapid growth. On the one hand, in the third quarter of last year, the multi -impact of the epidemic, flood conditions, and power -pulling power limit. The average growth rate of two years was only 4.9%, which was the lowest point in the year. As the epidemic disturbances gradually weakened, the process of re -production and re -production accelerates, the backlog demand is concentrated, the policy effect continues to exert, and the economic growth rate is recovering the potential growth level. GDP is expected to rise to about 5%in the third quarter. However, after entering the fourth quarter, with the rise of the base, the weakening of the policy effect, and the basics of repair, the internal vitality and ability will be weak. If there is no policy blessing, the difficulty of continuing the growth rate will increase.

Second, the central government has adjusted the annual goals to "win a better level of my country's economic development this year." This means that the decision -making layer has realized the arduousness of the annual goals. We believe that if the growth rate can reach about 5%in the second half of the year and the employment does not have problems, it can be regarded as completing the task.

Third, the policy will enter the wait -and -see period in the short term. As the economy continues to repair, the growth target is withdrawn, and policies are expected to keep watching in the short term. High -level emphasis is that the current implementation of a policy of stabilizing the economy is mainly to strengthen the implementation of a policy of stabilizing the economy, and continue to promote the implementation of the policy and the effect. This means that the possibility of policy continues to increase in the short term. The next phase of the policy will focus on stable employment and stability in the stability of market players. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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Editor in charge: Wang Lei

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