Holding up the pressure to achieve "positive growth", how can the Chinese economy go in the second half of the year?

On July 15, the Chinese economy reported in 2022. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 2.5%year -on -year, and GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year in the second quarter.

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In the second quarter, the pressure of the economy should be positively increased

Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe. Domestic epidemic conditions have been exacerbated, which has been significantly increasing, and economic development has been extremely unusual. Excessive unexpected sudden impact has brought serious impact. In the first quarter Significantly increased.

Looking back at the first half of the year, the economic indicators of the economic indicators have fallen significantly from January-February, and the main economic indicators have fallen significantly in March and April. "Type rebound.

This "V" is not easy, and it also reflects the strong toughness of the Chinese economy.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed China New Finance and Economics. On the whole, the rebound of the epidemic was effectively controlled, the process of re -production and re -production accelerated, the backlog demand was concentrated, and the policy effect continued to exert its economy.

In addition to the positive growth of GDP in the second quarter, there are some highlights in economic transcripts in the first half of the year, which is worthy of attention.

The growth rate of residents' income faster than GDP growth rate

Data show that in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country was 18,463 yuan, an increase of 4.7%year -on -year; the actual increase in price factors increased by 3.0%. The per capita disposable income across the country was 15,560 yuan, an increase of 4.5%year -on -year.

The actual growth rate of the per capita disposable income of the nation ’s residents nationwide has declined than in the first quarter, but it is faster than the economic growth rate.

Price increase is far lower than Europe and the United States

In the first half of the year, consumer prices (CPIs) across the country rose 1.7%year -on -year, within the expected target of about 3%.

From a monthly perspective, CPIs in April and May have risen by 2.1%year -on -year, and rose 2.5%in June, an increase slightly compared to the previous month. my country's price increase is significantly lower than the level of more than 8%of European and American countries. In June, CPIs in the United States and the euro zone rose by 9.1%and 8.6%year -on -year, respectively.

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that my country's CPI increase was significantly lower than that of European and American countries, mainly because my country did not adopt a strong stimulus policy of "large water irrigation". Faced with international input inflation, it has increased the domestic market to maintain stable prices. In addition, strengthening food production, this year's summer grain has achieved a harvest, summer grain production has increased by 1%over the previous year, ensuring the overall stability of the CPI. The stability of the price situation is not only conducive to the stable operation of the economy, but also the improvement of people's livelihood.

Data map: A scene of Ningbo Port. Photo by Shen Yingjun

In June, foreign trade growth returned to double digits

In the "three -driving carriage", the return of exports has risen faster. Among them, the growth rate of foreign trade in May and June has rebounded significantly. In May, the import and export of foreign trade in my country increased by 9.5%year -on -year, the growth rate accelerated by 9.4 percentage points compared with April, and the growth rate in June further increased to 14.3%.

In other words, the growth rate of foreign trade in June returned to dual digits and staged a big reversal.

Wen Bin believes that exports in June are better than the technical factors such as existing exchange rates and prices, but after the epidemic, the recovery of key supply chain nodes such as port transportation and port transportation after the epidemic is still a more critical factor. Essence

The growth rate of consumption in June is from negative to positive

Although consumption in the first half of the year still increased negatively, the growth rate of consumption in June has changed.

In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 21,043.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 0.7%. Among them, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April decreased by 11.1%year -on -year; the decline in May narrowed to 6.7%; in June, it rose from a decrease, an increase of 3.1%year -on -year, and a month -on -month increase of 0.53%.

Wen Bin said that during the epidemic in 2020, the total retail sales of social consumer goods took 6 months before it was negatively transferred; it took only 3 months this year. The reason why consumption is better is because the consumption scenario continues to be repaired, and the consumption demand of the backlog during the epidemic is concentrated. The epidemic in June was initially controlled, and the offline contact service industry gradually recovered. In addition, the effect of steady consumption policy appears. The policies for the reduction of passenger car purchase tax have been significantly boosted on car consumption.

From the website of the National Bureau of Statistics

What is the economic trend in the second half of the year?

The achievements of positive growth are not easy, but it cannot ignore the risks and challenges facing the current economic operation.

Fu Linghui pointed out that the risk of stagnation of the world economic stagnation has risen, the policy of major economies is tightening, and the uncertain factors of external instability have increased significantly. The impact of the domestic epidemic has not been completely eliminated. Overlay, the operation of the market is still difficult, and the foundation of the continuous recovery of the economy is unstable.

"There are challenges to achieve the annual economic growth expectations." Fu Linghui said, but we must also see that the long -term fundamentals of my country's economy have not changed, and the characteristics of strong economic toughness are obvious. Restore has more favorable conditions. Judging from the situation in the second half of the year, with the efficient overall overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the effects and measures of various policies and measures that have stabilized the economy have continued to appear, and my country's economy is expected to continue to rise in a reasonable range.

Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the focus of the policy in the second half of the year is to resume work, that is, the comprehensive recoveryThe restoration of your own economy and life.The second is to start construction, stabilize the economy, and invest in all aspects of infrastructure investment. It is the most important thing to start construction.The third is precise policy.Wen Bin said that as the epidemic disturbances gradually weakened, the process of re -production and re -production accelerated, the backlog demand was concentrated, the policy effect continued to exert, and the economic growth rate was recovering the potential growth level.GDP is expected to rise to about 5%in the third quarter.(Zhongxin Finance reporter Li Jinlei)

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