Yang Delong: In the first half of the year, my country's economic bottoming back to the second half of the year is expected to continue to recover

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

On Friday, July 15th, the Bureau of Statistics announced the economic growth data in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, my country's GDP increased by 2.5%year -on -year and 0.4%in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, economic growth was mainly affected by internal and external factors, especially in the second quarter, the influence of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes in the second quarter and the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike watching has led to a significant decline in economic growth. From the perspective of industries, the first industries in my country increased by 5.0%in the first half of the year, the secondary industry increased by 3.2%, and the tertiary industry increased by 1.8%. The service industry was a segment that was affected by the epidemic situation. In the second quarter, it was more obvious. In the second quarter, the first industry increased by 4.4%, the secondary industry increased by 0.9%, and the tertiary industry decreased by 0.4%. Under the influence of exceeding the expected factors such as the epidemic, the national economy was under pressure. Realize positive growth, and now it has begun to rise. In April, my country's major economic indicators fell in depth. With the launch of a policy and measures of a stable economy, the national television telephone meeting was held to deploy the work policy effect of stabilizing the economic market. Start stabilizing and rebounding, so that the economic growth in the second quarter is growing. According to the recently announced data such as PMI in June, after three consecutive months below 50%of the watershed, PMI returned to the expansion range in June, which also indicates that my country's economy has passed the lowest point and began to gradually recover. The annual economic growth has shown a "V" rebound trend. Through efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and socio -economic development, macroeconomic policies are adjusted, and 33 stable economic policies issued by the State Council will be implemented without discounting. Essence

After the epidemic was effectively controlled, the epidemic control measures have gradually begun to relax. The schedule cancellation of the stars and reduced the coverage date from 14 days to 7 days. After recovery, growth and employment are important policy goals. The central bank maintains a moderate relaxation in terms of monetary policy. In the first half of the year, the interest rate reduction measures with a decline and one -year LPR 20 -year LPR 20 -year -old LPR have strongly supported economic stability. In the second half of the year, it is expected that monetary policy will continue to maintain a relatively loose state without following the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate hikes, which is conducive to maintaining a reasonable and plenty of liquidity and promoting economic recovery. In the first half of the year, agricultural added value increased by 4.5%year -on -year. The output reached 147.39 million tons, an increase of 1.434 million tons from the previous year, an increase of 1.0%. The agricultural planting structure continued to optimize, and the area of ​​economic crops increased. , Xia Grain will be harvested again, the animal husbandry has grown steadily, and the needs of residents will be stable. In the first half of the year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.4%year -on -year. The low growth rate in the second quarter was mainly affected by the epidemic. It is expected to continue to recover in the third quarter.

The high -tech manufacturing industry has developed rapidly. Among them, the output of new energy vehicles, solar batteries, and mobile communication base stations increased by 111.2%, 31.8%, and 19.8%year -on -year, respectively. The economy has steadily transformed and promoted the development of new energy. As a direction with a high degree of prosperity, new energy replacing traditional energy is the general trend. Reflected in the capital market, the bottom of the new energy sector rising in the second quarter, rising sharply, driving the popularity of the entire capital market, and also promoting the broader market to get out of the bottom area. In terms of service industry, the added value of the service industry in the first half of the year increased by 1.8%year -on -year. Now the service industry has increased better. In the second quarter, the added value of the service industry decreased by 0.4%year -on -year. The business activity index was 54.3%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the previous month, and gradually began to recover. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in my country in the first half of the year were 21043.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 0.7%. In the second quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 4.6%year -on -year. The decline in May narrowed to 6.7%, rising from a decrease in June, an increase of 3.1%year -on -year, and a month -on -month increase of 0.53%. Consumption is expected to rise significantly after the epidemic. Consumption is a section that is affected by the greater affected by the epidemic, but once the epidemic control measures are gradually adjusted, the consumption is expected to relay new energy to become the next leader.

In terms of investment in fixed assets, fixed asset investment continued to grow in the first half of the year, and investment in high -tech industries and social fields increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, the national fixed asset investment was 27143 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 6.1%. In terms of division, infrastructure investment increased by 7.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 10.4%, real estate development investment decreased by 5.4%, the sales area of ​​commodity housing in the country decreased by 22.2%, the sales of commercial housing fell by 28.9%. Drag the investment growth rate. In April, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was low. By June, the growth rate had risen to 5.6%. It is expected that fixed asset investment in the second half of the year will rise significantly.

In terms of import and export trade, the total import and export of goods in the first half of the year was 19802.2 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%year -on -year. Among them, exports achieved 11141.7 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2%, and imports were 8660.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. The trade surplus of import and export is 248.12 billion yuan, maintaining a high growth rate, which reflects that my country's export products are still strongly competitive. In the first half of the year, the global economic growth rate declined and the situation was complex. Essence In June, the total imports and exports in my country were 3765.7 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3%year -on -year. Among them, exports were 2207.9 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0%, and imports were 1557.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, maintaining a high growth rate. In terms of prices, the CPI CPI in my country in the first half of the year rose 1.7%year -on -year, maintained at a low level, and achieved a moderate increase. The increase in industrial producers continued to decline. In the first half of the year, PPIs in my country rose 7.7%year -on -year, and the second quarter rose 6.8%year -on -year. Compared with the previous comparison, it shows that my country is mainly input inflation in inflation in China. Due to the high price of global commodities, the PPI is higher than that of CPI. The lower CPI is mainly affected by the decline in pork prices. The price of pork decreases by 33.2% The impact of rising food prices and rising energy prices. In the second quarter, my country's CPI rose 2.3%year -on -year, which was already lower than 3%. It was at a mild inflation. The level of low inflation allowed the central bank to have more monetary policy tools to support economic development.

In terms of employment, employment situation has improved, urban survey rates fall, and stable employment is an important policy goal in the second half of the year. Residents' income increased steadily, and the per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents narrowed. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 18,463 yuan, an increase of 4.7%year -on -year. The actual increase in price factors increased by 3.0%. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 2,5003 yuan, an increase of 3.6%year -on -year, and the actual increase was 1.9%. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 9787 yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.8%, and the actual increase of 4.2%. Generally speaking, as a series of steady growth policies gradually landed, the policy effects gradually began to reflect. my country's economy overwhelmed the factors of overwhelming factors, and it showed a stable recovery trend. Especially in the second quarter, the economy achieved positive growth, which boosted market confidence.

Now the risk of global economic stagflation risks has risen, the policies of major economies such as the United States have tightened, the Fed has continued to raise interest rates, and external uncertain factors are increasing. The impact of the domestic epidemic has not been completely eliminated. The economic transformation process will not be smooth sailing, and more policy support is required to achieve steady economic growth. In the second half of the year, we must continue to do a good job of "six stability" and "six guarantees", continue to stimulate economic growth vitality, continuously consolidate the foundation of economic stability recovery, ensure that my country's economy Run in a reasonable range.

Responsible editor: Tao Jiyan | Review: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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