21 Interpretation 丨 The pressure of the economy in the second quarter increased by 0.4%. What are the challenges and efforts to achieve the annual goals?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Zhou Xiaozheng Beijing report

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data in the first half of the year.

Preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first half of the year achieved 56.26 trillion yuan, which was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the economic growth in the first quarter was 4.8%, and the economic growth in the second quarter was 0.4%.

Since the beginning of this year, the Ukrainian incident and domestic outbreaks have more than expected factors such as the impact on the economic impact, and the economic downward pressure has increased since March. However, my country ’s efficient overall overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase the regulation of macroeconomic policies, and launch a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy. The epidemic rebound has been effectively controlled, and the national economy has achieved stability and rebound.

Considering that the economic indicators in April generally fell, and some indicators in May remained negative growth, the pressure on the top of the second quarter achieved positive growth, and the results were difficult. The acceleration of economic recovery in June is the main reason why the economy has achieved positive growth in the second quarter.

On July 15th, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said at the State New Office conference that in the first half of this year, my country's economy rested on the impact of exceeding the expected factors, which was not easy. At present, the risk of stagflation in the world's economic stagnation has risen, and the uncertain factors of external instability have increased. Domestic demand shrinkage, supply shock, and expected weak triple pressure still exists, and there are challenges to achieve the expected goals of economic growth throughout the year. Judging from the situation in the second half of the year, with the efficient overall overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the effects and measures of various policies and measures that have stabilized the economy have continued to appear, and my country's economy is expected to continue to rise in a reasonable range.

The economy accelerated upwards in June

Data show that the main economic indicators in June have achieved positive growth, and the consumption and service industry indexes that have been greaterly affected by the epidemic in the early stage are negatively transferred. For example, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size rose to 3.9%, the service industry production index increased by 1.3%year -on -year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in June increased by 3.1%year -on -year. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in June rose to 5.6%. The total imports and exports in June increased by 14.3%, and the unemployment rate in urban surveys in June fell to 5.5%.

Fu Linghui said that due to the complex evolution of the international environment in the second quarter, the domestic epidemic impact and other super -expected factors were affected, and the downward pressure on the economy increased significantly. In the second quarter, my country's economy overcome multiple pressure challenges. The main indicators stopped the decline and achieved a stable recovery.

my country's epidemic prevention and control, and accelerated demand supply is an important factor in promoting the recovery of economic accelerated recovery in June.

In areas where the epidemic impact is severely impacted, it is accelerating the lack of early replenishment. In the second quarter, the GDP in Shanghai and Jilin fell 13.7%and 4.5%year -on -year. The survey rate of the urban survey of Shanghai and Jilin was 12.5%and 7.6%, which was significantly higher than the national level. However, in June, the added value of industries above designated size in Shanghai and Jilin increased by 13.9%and 6.3%year -on -year, an increase of 44.8 and 11.2 percentage points from the previous month; in June, the unemployment rate in Shanghai and Jilin cities and towns decreased by 9.7 and 0.8 percentage points. —This all shows that the economic recovery of a larger impact on the epidemic is accelerating steadily.

The automotive industry chain, which was affected by the early epidemic, is accelerating the repair. For example, the automotive industry chain in the Yangtze River Delta region is accelerating the blood recovery, and the port logistics is smoothly provided to provide basic conditions for high -speed exports. In June, my country's automobile production and sales were 2.499 million and 2.502 million, respectively, with a month -on -month increase of 29.7%and 34.4%, respectively, an increase of 28.2%and 23.8%year -on -year. In the first half of the year, my country's automobile production and sales were 12.117 million and 12.057 million. In the first half of the year, a total of 1.218 million was exported, a year -on -year increase of 47.1%.

The policy of stabilizing the economy and the introduction of incremental policies such as promoting investment and stabilizing employment is an important reason for the stability of stability and stability in the second quarter.

Infrastructure investment has continued to accelerate for several consecutive months. When real estate investment is still downward, in order to better expand domestic demand, expanding infrastructure investment has become an important starting point. Infrastructure investment increased by 7.1%year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points accelerated from January to May, and 0.6 percentage points accelerated from January to April.

With the recovery of the economy, the overall employment situation is getting better. In June, the unemployment rate of urban survey continued to fall, and the employment status of migrant workers improved significantly, but the population survey rate of population in the ages of 16-24 has risen. Specifically, the unemployment rate of urban survey in June was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from May. Among them, the unemployment rate of foreign agricultural household registration in June fell to 5.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly told the 21st Century Business Herald that the economic growth in the second quarter was 0.4%that met expectations. After the economy was accelerating in June, after the epidemic was better controlled, consumption rose from the sharp negative growth in May to the rapid return to rising to the rapid return to rising to the rapidly back to rising to the rapidly back to the rapid return to the rise to the rapid rise of in May to the rising rapidly. 3.1%in June; with the support of a series of fiscal and investment policies in the early stage, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment have maintained a good growth rate; the exports in June are relatively strong, and the global industrial chain is disturbed. force.

What is the economic development trend in the second half of the year?

In the first half of the year, my country's economy increased by 2.5%, and the results were not easy. To achieve the goal of about 5.5%of the year, this requires that my country's economic growth will increase by more than 8%in the second half of the year. This growth rate is much higher than that of my country's potential growth rate, and it is difficult to achieve.

Fu Linghui said that regarding China's potential growth rate, many institutions and scholars have calculated. Most of the conclusions believe that the potential growth rate of China's economic economic growth at this stage is about 5%-6%. In the future, with the increase in China's economy and the increase in labor resources and environment constraints, the level of potential growth rate will gradually decrease. From a global perspective, 5%-6%of potential growth rate is still at a high level, and the future development of China's economy has huge potential. It should be pointed out that the international environment is complicated and severe, the century epidemic is superimposed, global development has encountered countercurrent, and the domestic economic structure adjustment and transformation are in a critical period. The difficulty of my country's economic growth has reached the potential level. Fu Linghui bluntly stated that at present, the risk of world economic stagnation risks has risen, and external instability and uncertain factors have increased. Domestic demand shrinkage, supply shock, and expected weak triple pressure still exists, and there are challenges to achieve the annual economic growth expected goals. However, we must also see that the long -term fundamental fundamentals of my country's economy have not changed, and the characteristics of strong economic toughness are obvious. The macro policy regulation tools are rich in tools, and it has more favorable conditions for the continuous recovery of economic recovery. Judging from the situation in the second half of the year, with the efficient overall overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the effects and measures of various policies and measures that have stabilized the economy have continued to appear, and my country's economy is expected to continue to rise in a reasonable range. At the next stage, we must seize the favorable opportunity of economic stability and recovery, coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, and grasp a package of stable economic policies and measures.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that June data showed that my country's economic low has passed and the economy is in the process of recovery. Considering that the epidemic is still possible and the real estate performance is weak, the economic recovery may be a U -shaped rebound in the second half of the year, and it is difficult to occur like a V -type rebound in 2020. Affected by the global epidemic, Ukraine incidents, and global inflation pressure, the export situation in my country should not be bad in the second half of the year. In the context of increasing global inflation pressure, expanding the import of Chinese goods is an effective means to increase supply.

"To achieve a growth goal of about 5.5%throughout the year, it means that the economic growth rate of the second half of the year is above 7%, and the possibility is relatively small. The GDP growth goal is a expected goal and is not a constraint. Stable employment and controlling inflation are important policy goals, "Li Xunlei pointed out.

Obviously, the economy is expected to continue to recover in July, and the effect of stable growth in the early stage will gradually appear. For example, policy financial policies that have recently promoted investment will be released one after another. However, there is still differentiation behind the recovery of economic accelerated recovery in June. For example, real estate investment in June is still falling. In the future, policies should pay attention to balance and increase shortcomings. For example, by pulling investment to promote effective demand and increased efforts to stabilize employment with the efforts of work generations, structural policies need to be introduced for college students' employment.

"The economic goals of the second half of the year should be based on people's livelihood and employment. By promoting economic continuing recovery and solving structural issues, we should focus on the problems of residents' income, consumption, and employment. Earlier, new policies are recommended in the second half of the year, "clearly stated.

Li Xunlei pointed out that real estate investment in June is still down, and the policy level needs to increase support for real estate. In the second half of the year, the steady growth policy needs to drive infrastructure to offset the negative impact of the economic downturn on the economy. Debt defaults and some consumers to suspend loan risks, it is recommended to establish a stable real estate infrastructure to ensure that real estate will not cause a chain reaction.

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