Nancai fast comments: the economy has entered the continuous repair channel

This morning, the State Council News Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2022.

Preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first half of the year was 56264.2 billion yuan, which was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%. In terms of industries, the added value of the first industry was 2913.7 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.0%; the added value of the second industry was 2286.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; the value -added of the tertiary industry was 304.868 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%.

Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29246.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%. In terms of industries, the added value of the first industry in the second quarter was 1818.3 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 4.4%; the added value of the second industry was 12245 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 15183.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%.

Overall, after the economic experience in the second quarter, the economy entered the repair channel. There are three main performances.

In the second and second quarters, the GDP achieved a slightly positive growth, and the repair of the three industries was relatively lagging. In the second quarter, GDP was 0.4%year-on-year and kept the bottom line of positive growth. The three industrial GDPs were 4.4%, 0.9%, and -0.4%year-on-year during the quarter. The latter two fell significantly compared with the first quarter. In terms of regions, the Yangtze River Delta regions, Beijing, Guangdong, and the tourism industry, which are more serious in the early stage, have a weak performance of GDP such as Sichuan, Hainan, and Qinghai, which are more dependent on tourism.

In June, industrial production accelerated the restoration, and the midstream manufacturing industry performed well. In June, the added value of the industry was 3.9%year -on -year and 4.5%below the average market expectations, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industry was 3.4%year -on -year, and a 3.3 percentage point rose from the previous month. Among the major industries, the car manufacturing, general equipment, railway ships, etc., which were affected by the early epidemic, were significantly picked up. Essence

Second, the effect of steady growth has accelerated, and investment continues to rise. In June, the investment in fixed assets was 5.8%year -on -year, and 1.1 percentage points rose 1.1 from the previous month; the infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment rose 4.1 and 2.9 percentage points to 12%and 9.9%respectively. In the manufacturing industry, the investment in electrical machinery, chemical raw materials, computer communication electronics, and general equipment have grown rapidly.

Real estate investment has fallen further, but the demand for the early stamping has driven the marginal improvement of sales. In June, the investment in real estate decreased by 9.4%year -on -year, and the decline expanded by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. The construction, new construction and completion all declined further, and the decline was more than 40%. In contrast Narrow 13.5 percentage points to 18.3%, whether real estate sales and investment can stabilize, in the third quarter or key.

Third, Social Zero is significantly exceeded, and car -related consumption contributions are greater. In June, the community zero was 3.1%year-on-year, higher than the -6.7%higher than last month, and the consumption and catering income of 3.9%and -4%year-on-year; of which automobiles and petroleum products increased by 13.9%and 14.7%, respectively, and the total accounted for more than above the limit. The community zero is nearly 43%.

Residents' income declined significantly, and employment pressure was still prominent. In the second quarter, the per capita disposable income and consumer expenditure of residents were 2.6%and 2.5%year -on -year, respectively, and 3.7 and 3.6 percentage points from the first quarter, respectively, and the optional and service consumption -related expenditures dropped significantly. The employment pressure is still prominent. In June, the urban survey rate was 5.5%, and 0.4 percentage points fell from the previous month.

In short, the economy has entered a continuous repair channel, and the rhythm may be accelerated and elastic still needs to be tracked. There is a "dislocation" of infrastructure growth and actual landing in the front of funds, and the support or gradually appearing on demand; but the different macro environment and the policy environment may make the economic restoration face the "ceiling". Essence

(The author is the chief economist of Guojin Securities)

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