Zhang Aoping: In the second quarter, China's GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year, holding the bottom line of the stagnation

Zhongxin Jingwei July 15th. Question: In the second quarter, China's GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year, holding the bottom line of the stagnation

Author Zhang Aoping Institute of Extraction Research Institute

On July 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data, and preliminary accounting was that the GDP in the first half of 2022 was 56264.2 billion yuan, which was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29246.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%.

Stability of the economy still needs to work hard

In the second quarter, the Chinese economy impacted a new round of internal epidemic, under the complicated and severe development environment of external Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical division, and global high inflation, through efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increased macro policy regulation efforts , Effectively implement a policy of stabilizing the economy, and strive to return the economic operation to the normal track, and keep the bottom line without a stable.

Although the Chinese economy achieved a 0.4%growth rate in the second quarter, the marginal improvement of major economic indicators in June, but the foundation of recovery is still unstable, and the economic operation in the second half of the year still faces greater uncertainty and instability. Stable economy still needs to pay for the economy. Do not take it lightly.

First, the "key" that achieves endogenous growth in the economy: restores the confidence of the development of small and medium -sized enterprises.

From the perspective of the economic "carriage", accompanied by the western developed economies such as the United States, in order to deal with the inflation of 40 years, the "violence" raising interest rates will begin. Global demand will begin in the second half of the year. The narrowing of the gap will also be suppressed on China's exports in the second half of the year, and the focus of stable growth will fall on domestic demand, that is, investment and consumption.

The reason for the reimbursement of the economy in the second quarter was that government departments made up for economic activities, and fiscal expenditure cooperated with infrastructure investment to stabilize the economic market. However, from the month -on -month restoration to the real recovery, the private sector relay government departments began to make efforts, that is, corporate investment and residents' consumption efforts, and the economy achieves endogenous growth.

Resident consumption in the private sector changes with the expectations of income. Only residents' income is expected to improve can residents increase consumption. Increase is expected to be good, and the company needs to achieve investment development, and the premise of enterprises to achieve investment development is confidence in development.

Second, the most important task of economic and social development in the second half of the year: stable employment.

On April 29, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made a clear judgment of "stable growth, employment, and stable prices facing new challenges" on the follow -up economic and social development. In the New Three Challenges, the most important thing in the second half of the year is employment. On July 13, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that "employment is the top priority of people's livelihood and the important support for stable economic markets. Only employment can create wealth, increase income, and drive consumption and drive economic growth." The main body is stable employment. Continue to implement the policy of helping the enterprise's rescue, open up the implementation point, and implement the packaging of social insurance premiums, stable jobs, and employment subsidies. "

In the second half of the year, compared with other economic goals throughout the year, the most important goal is that the unemployment rate is within 5.5%. In a complex and severe economic development environment, if the target of the unemployment rate can be kept, economic activities can operate normally, and even if the economic growth has not reached the annual goal, it is very successful.

Important "highlights" of long -term economic development

In the long run, the Chinese economy is at a key stage of crossing the "middle income trap". In 2021, China's per capita GDP was US $ 12,500, which was close to the latest high -income national standard GNI 1.2695 million US dollars in the latest settings of the World Bank. Whether it can successfully cross the "medium income trap" mainly depends on whether the kinetic energy that drives economic growth can achieve a leap from factors input -driven to technological innovation.

In addition, by 2035, China will basically achieve socialist modernization, and the per capita GDP will reach the level of medium -developed countries, and achieve a sharp rise in scientific and technological strength and a comprehensive national strength. This needs to continue to deepen innovation under the premise of maintaining a certain economic growth rate Drive the development strategy and strengthen national strategic technology.

First, effective innovation accelerates development with policy support.

In the past three years of China's economic development, scientific and technological innovation has been at an unprecedented strategic height. From the perspective of economic data in the first half of 2022, high -tech industry investment representing scientific and technological innovation, especially high -tech manufacturing investment, is the "highlight" of continuous economic development since the epidemic in 2020.

From the PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) data, it can also be seen that although the PMI of the manufacturing industry in June was 50.2%, which was slightly higher than the critical point, the PMI of high -tech manufacturing was 52.8%, indicating that the high -tech manufacturing industry has stronger development In the economic environment of innovation -driven, innovative enterprises have strong expectations for future market development.

Second, the comprehensive registration system reforms the in -depth combination of effective innovation and affiliate capital.

With the establishment of the registration system for nearly three years of the capital market, and the establishment of the Bei Stock Exchange, which created a "service innovation -oriented SME main position" in 2021, the capital market is quickly supplementing its functions of helping innovative enterprises to achieve financing development. Under the reform of the comprehensive registration system of the capital market, capital will better play the positive role as a production factors; strengthen the important functions of the capital market in promoting technology, capital and industrial cycle; so that more innovative SMEs can achieve direct financing and development , Thereby continuing to deepen China's economy's innovation -driven development strategy. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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