Zhiyun Health, how many discounts of "pharmaceutical dealers"?

"Graduated from the Department of Electronic Engineering of Tongji University undergraduate, he has a master's degree in communication engineering from Shanghai Jiaotong University. After graduation, he successfully added Intel's work that countless engineers dream of, and then went to Cambridge University for further studies."

Kuang Ming's resume, each of them attracted the attention, so that Johnson & Johnson was willing to pay a million years of salary. But he just stood still, but he was unwilling here. With the ideal of helping patients with chronic diseases through medical services, he founded the "Palm Sugar Doctor" in 2014.

In 2018, the sugar doctor was upgraded to Zhiyun Health and positioned digital chronic disease management solutions. On the eve of the IPO, it attracted a lot of major cornerstone investors including China Recruitment International, SIG GLOBAL, and IDG capital.

On July 6, Zhiyun Health was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the issue price of HK $ 30.50/share. Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase were joint sponsor for its co -sponsor with a market value of HK $ 17.905 billion.

However, the first share of the primary market loved by the first -level market was broken on the day of listing. The lowest price in the market fell 20.16%, closing at HK $ 28.2. Subsequently, its stock price fell all the way. As of July 14, it had fallen to HK $ 26.9/share, with a market value of HK $ 15.791 billion.

The break of Zhiyun's health is not surprising. Compared with the original intention of the sugar medicine period, the essence of this "digital chronic disease management solution provider" is only a "pharmaceutical dealer". Even if you work hard to sell medicine, you can't escape huge losses.

Zhang Jiang, an investor in Ping An Venture Capital, said with emotion when he talked about Kuang Ming, "Some things can estimate, such as the background of Kuangming cross -industry, his ability, his speed." Can the ability to value Zhiyun health gain the trust of the secondary market? Take off the false jacket, can Zhiyun health still afford the valuation of nearly 16 billion?

How big is the bubble?

Once a track has a lively sign, countless players will swarm. In 2015, mobile medical treatment ushered in the air, and mobile chronic disease management was even called "the next gold mine". At that time, there were hundreds of APPs that focused on diabetes management, so that the market was called "100 sugar war" during that period.

Warfire burned on the C -end, and many players disappeared on the battlefield. The sugar doctor survived and received over 100 million investments, but also realized that burning money was not a long -term plan, and the transformation was imminent. After upgrading to Zhiyun Health, Kuang Ming looked at the H+to C mode of the H+to C model at the H+to C model, and then gradually focused on the hospital and pharmacy at the B -end, and started to develop SaaS.

It is worthy of recognition that the transformation does bring a lot of income. From 2019 to 2021, Zhiyun's health revenue was 524 million yuan, 839 million yuan, and 1.757 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 60.0%and 109.4%, respectively. At the same time, the gross profit margin has also increased by 11.7%, 27.7%, and 32.4%in three years.

However, the rapid growth of revenue after the reform still failed to lead Zhiyun's health to the quagmire of losses. In the past three years, a total of 7.615 billion yuan was lost.

What hurts more than losing money is that the source behind these numbers, the clothes of Zhiyun Health "Solutions" are slowly picked up, and the essence of "pharmaceutical dealers" floats.

Among the three major businesses: solutions, pharmacy solutions, and personal chronic disease management solutions, the highest proportion is not digital management, but to sell medical supplies to obtain income, contributing to nearly 70 % of revenue.

Data source: prospectus

Among them, the so -called SaaS and digital marketing businesses are essentially serving medical supplies. Zhiyun Health obtains corresponding sales commission through these two businesses that are closest to "smart". The reason for the loss is that the gross profit margin of the sales of medical supplies is only about 10%.

As a so -called "digital chronic disease management solution provider", R & D expenditure in the past three years only accounts for 16%, 21%and 29%of sales and marketing expenses.

In this way, the "brute force" model is also expected, and it can only rely on the institutional financing and blood transfusion. But the break -up also reflects the attitude of the market. After the true identity of "pharmaceutical dealers" is revealed, is Zhiyun Health still worth the current value of nearly 16 billion?

Zhiyun Health Sales Hospital's medical products increased the revenue of 1.207 billion yuan (approximately HK $ 1.403.5 billion), which was calculated at about 11.4 times according to the PS market sales rate valuation method.

On the other hand, the Internet medical head platform with "selling medicines" as its main income. The latest market value of JD.com's health is HK $ 2017 million, and the revenue of drugs and health products is 26.2 billion yuan (about 30.46 billion Hong Kong dollars). It is 6.62 times. The latest market value is HK $ 25.509 billion, and the sales revenue of goods (mainly drugs) (mainly drugs) is 4.67 billion yuan (about 5.426 billion Hong Kong dollars), and the market sales ratio is 4.7 times.

Hong Kong stocks' head medical SAAS company, medical big data technology and artificial intelligence solution provider providers Medical Cross Technology, the latest market value is HK $ 9.087 billion, and the market sales ratio is 6.3 times.

In summary, the latest market value has fallen 10%of Zhiyun Health. The marketing rate is not only greater than the Internet medical giants who also sell drugs, and even more than the SaaS player of the positioning medical solution provider. Is the current valuation of Zhiyun Health reasonable? I'm afraid you need to get a big question mark. It's really hard to become a bridgehead

The inspirational story of "medicine dealers" obviously cannot meet the appetite of a lot of capital behind Zhiyun Health.

Since 2016, Zhiyun Health has begun to deploy the SaaS system independently developed in the hospital; three years later, the Zhiyun Consultation SaaS system was deployed in the pharmacy. From 2019 to 2021, the number of hospitals deploying Zhiyun Health SaaS increased from 377 to 2,369.

However, there are not many hospitals willing to pay 250,000 annual subscription fees. The paid rate in 2019 was 28%, and in 2020 to 10.8%, and only 4.9%in 2021.

Although the gross profit margin of Zhiyun Health SaaS and other business in 2021 was as high as 65.1%, but the payment rate was low, and the three -year revenue contribution of the hospital's SaaS accounted for only 2.3%, 2.7%and 0.9%.

In terms of pharmacy SaaS business, domestic 172,000 pharmacies have become Zhiyun Healthy customers, which is worthy of the name of the largest pharmacy SaaS product provider, but the annual fee of 1,000 yuan to 17,000 yuan has contributed very little to revenue. In the past two years, revenue contributions accounted for only 1.8%and 2.8%, respectively.

On the surface, it is because the free strategy of Zhiyun Health has encountered obstacles in cultivating users' payment mentality, but the root cause is because SaaS is not the focus of commercialization for Zhiyun Health itself, but to it to it Customers provide a "gift" -the use of SaaS for free, and use drug sales income to offer subscription fees.

Zhiyun Healthy Hospital SaaS provides patients with digital clinical care for patients. The pharmacy SaaS provides customers with online consultation and prescription services for customers. From the perspective of the moat, the SaaS service of Zhiyun Healthy SaaS service has not been significantly barriers in the hospital and pharmacies.

At present, some head -of -head public hospitals already have self -developed information systems, rather than the needs of the head hospital for informatization, and there is a lot of gaps with the number of budgets compared to the number of public hospitals on the budget. Where is the competitiveness of Zhiyun Health SaaS, which is the main standardized product?

At present, Zhiyun Health has fallen into a huge loss, and the gross profit margin of the drug selling business is low. In the future, whether SaaS can become its second growth curve is very critical. But Zhiyun Health has cut in with free strategy, insufficient research and development investment, and how to cultivate users' payment habits?

Perhaps because I knew that SaaS was not easy to do, I also said in the prospectus of Zhiyun Health: It has always been expected that in the near future, it will continue to generate most income through selling medical supplies to hospitals and pharmacies.

Zhiyun Healthy has destroyed the flames of SaaS, and where the market's expectations can be placed on it, I am afraid it is a problem.

Old road may be the right way

Kuang Ming recalled that when he was in the early "100 sugar wars", it was bluntly that everyone had a very difficult time at that time. He knew that burning money was unsustainable, but he did not explore a practical business model. At that time, the players continued to subsidize and pull new subsidies in order to compete for the C -terminal traffic.

But now it is based on sales of medical supplies. With free deployment of SaaS to enhance user stickiness, why not rely on marketing to burn money on B -end? Behind the rejuvenation of the big sword, it is still just walking out of a quagmire and entering another quagmire.

In fact, Zhiyun Health chose the first slow disease competition, the Tao of the Tao of the Snow Snow Changpo thick.

From & Sullivan data shows that the proportion of population over 65 years of age will increase from 13.5%in 2020 to 21.9%in 2030. Under the transformation of the population structure, the demand for slow disease management has increased. In 2020, Chinese patients' spending on chronic disease management was about 4.1 trillion yuan. It is estimated that by 2025 and 2030, the market size will increase further to 800.1 billion yuan and 1808.5 billion yuan.

Slow -disease management has always been cakes in the eyes of capital. Whether it is an Internet giant or an investment institution holding money bags, they are eager to try. Data show that in the first half of 2021, the financing scale of domestic digital chronic disease management enterprises reached 3.055 billion yuan, an increase of 264%year -on -year.

However, players who currently enter the Internet medical treatment have not been able to find a practical business model.

Looking at overseas, whether it is the first stock of global mobile chronic disease management, Livongo, who also started with diabetes, has opened up the combination of "medicine+medicine+danger+digital" closed loop. Essence

In terms of national conditions, it does have uniqueness at home and abroad. The commercial insurance market in the United States is developed. Under such an environment, Livongo's membership subscription model has a clear paid party, namely a commercial insurance company. The background of domestic maintenance of basic medical insurance and major illnesses can be referenced, but it is difficult to copy the precedent of overseas predecessors.

But "digitalization" is the only way to get through the mode of chronic disease management.

Yang Wenlin, the vice president of Zhiyun Health CPO and vice president, has admitted that China ’s chronic disease management is an area that urgently needs digital transformation. It is specifically manifested in its large population base, long management cycle, and strong personalized needs. Digital technology can be widely involved in preliminary monitoring, tracking management, and personalized chronic disease management services, which can provide patients with convenient services on various business ports. However, although Zhiyun Health is under the flag of "digitalization", there are few R & D investment, and there is no water flower.

At present, the bubble of Zhiyun Health is constantly piercing, and the capital slowly clarifles the truth. Before the last day of the ban on sale, how Zhiyun Health gives enough imagination for the secondary market, or it will become the top priority at the moment.

In the past, when asked why he gave up Johnson & Johnson's millions of annual salary and chose to step into the big river management, he once said, "I want to gamble a big one." Is he gambled now? I am afraid only you can give the answer.

However, at this gambling table of Zhiyun Health, in addition to Kuang Ming, there are investors holding cards. The latter undoubtedly has the right to choose freedom. I know.

@创

Author 丨 Jiarong Editor 丨 Yi Page

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