What signals are released by the China Economic Half -year Daily?Interpretation

Zhongxin Jingwei, July 15th. The Chinese economy report was released.

According to data on the 15th of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 21043.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 0.7%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods except cars were 18925.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1%.

As of the afternoon, the A -share car sector rolled back, BYD's market value returned trillion, and 11 car stocks such as New Tiger rose daily limit.

"V View Finance Report" (WeChat ID: VG-View) interviews and brings together a number of experts to analyze and interpret economic data.

Panhelin: The main economic indicators present the recovery trend

The co -director, researcher Pan and Lin of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University's International Business School believed that from the second quarter, especially in June, the current main economic indicators have remedied, and the economy has gradually stabilized. In terms of industry, the increase in industrial added value in June is 3.9%, which is a great improvement compared to the slowdown in April. Among them, the most obvious improvement is the automobile manufacturing industry. Showing a comprehensive recovery, in other aspects, foreign trade has also recovered. By dredging measures such as logistics and confession of ports, and the strong toughness of my country's foreign trade field, the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports rose to 14.3%.

From the level of investment, the investment in fixed assets in cities and towns in the first half of the year increased by 6.1%year -on -year. Infrastructure investment gradually increased, and it was a good recovery in the investment field. Foreign trade, exports, and consumption have shown signs of recovery. The macroeconomic gradually returns to a reasonable range, and it is very good to hedge the risks of the external market. In the context of economic recovery, the current domestic employment market, capital market, and consumer market have shown a prosperous trend. In addition, it is worth noting that my country's economic structure and industrial structure continues to optimize, the role of new industries and new kinetic energy on the economy is continuously reflected, and the Chinese economy has entered a stage of high -quality development.

In the second half of the year, my country will continue to maintain this development momentum. The policy of stable economy will further advance, drive consumption, increase infrastructure investment, unblock the logistics supply chain, and promote the stable production of policies and other policies. Do not ignore some potential risks. For example, the global economic situation is still turbulent, and the European and American central banks enter the tightening, which may put pressure on China's economic situation in the second half of the year. For example, there are some potential risk points in the field of financial real estate, which need to be dealt with in time.

Wang Jun: Economic bottom may have appeared

Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said that from the international perspective of the new crown epidemic and the continuous disturbance of the economic restoration rhythm of the new crown epidemic and the Russian and Ukraine conflict, domestic triple pressures have continued to affect the economy. With the strong support of the policy, the economic bottom of 2022 may have appeared in the second quarter, and a significant rise in the third quarter has continued.

However, we also need to soberly realize that, in view of the sharp stagnation of the supply and demand ends of the supply and demand in April and May, the rebound in June may only barely get rid of the negative growth situation in the second quarter.

Yang Chang: It is expected to go steadily in the second half of the year

Yang Chang, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities, believes that the Chinese economy is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year, showing signs of steady stability.

Judging from the second half of the year, the more certain power is infrastructure and real estate. After the densely issued local government debt in May to June, the physical workload of infrastructure projects is expected to be gradually reflected in the third quarter. 300 billion policy financial bonds, which are used to supplement major project capital or bridge the capital of special debt projects, are expected to promote infrastructure projects to form a physical workload. From the perspective of real estate, from the fourth -tier and five -tier to the second and third -tier cities in the early stage, the relaxation of the real estate sales policy has been implemented one after another, and the possibility of marginal loosening in the subsequent tier cities.

Generally speaking, we are still confident in the trend of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, and we are expected to have a steady trend. In the third quarter, we are expected to form a high point year -on -year growth rate. In the fourth quarter, we are expected to continue to repair the momentum and maintain a high level of operation.

Cheng Shi: Infrastructure is an important source of motivation for economic growth this year

Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC, said that infrastructure is an important source of power for economic growth this year. Due to the forward force of the policy, the infrastructure growth rate will decline in a high probability after August, but it may still be able to support a certain support by issuing a special debt amount next year in advance.

Based on the existing source of funds, the cumulative growth rate of broad infrastructure in the year will reach 6%-8%of the growth rate. If the amount of new special debt will be added next year after August, the infrastructure growth may exceed 10%.

Wen Bin: Careful attitude towards the next stage of consumption performance

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, mentioned that in June, the retail sales of consumer goods in June was 3.1%year-on-year, which was significantly better than -6.7%of the last month, which significantly exceeded market expectations. During the epidemic in 2020, the community was used for 6 months to turn it to the positive; it took only 3 months this year.

The reason why consumption is obviously improved mainly in the following reasons: first, due to the continued repair of consumer scenarios, the second, the effect of stabilizing the consumer policy, the third is that the consumption demand of backlogging during the epidemic period was released in the previous few months.

However, Wen Bin mentioned that after the demand is centralized, the consumption performance of the next stage is still cautious.

The consumption willingness of economic entities is still not high. According to the data of the central bank's survey, the willingness of urban residents to save has risen to 58.3%in the second quarter, and the refresh has the highest level since statistics. As of the end of June, residents' households increased by 10.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.88 trillion year -on -year, all reached a record high in the same period, showing that the preventive savings tendency of the residential sector was still high. Zhao Wei: The performance of the midstream manufacturing industry is dazzling

Guojin Macro Zhao Wei team pointed out that industrial production accelerated in June and the midstream manufacturing performance performed well. In June, the added value of the industry was 3.9%year -on -year and 4.5%below the average market expectations, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industry was 3.4%year -on -year, and a 3.3 percentage point rose from the previous month. Among the major industries, the car manufacturing, general equipment, railway ships, etc., which were affected by the early epidemic, were significantly picked up. Essence

Social zero is significantly exceeded, and car -related consumption contributions are greater. Automobile and oil products increased by 13.9%and 14.7%, respectively, accounting for nearly 43%of the communities above the limit. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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