Tibnne: Cost support increases first

Editorial In the first half of this year, the overall rise in the domestic chemical product market slowdown, especially since June, the prices of most products fell. The international situation has not been relieved, resulting in a slow decline in high oil prices, and it still plays a cost support for the relevant chemical product market. However, some products with low correlation with crude oil or energy categories are subject to weak demand, and prices have fallen one after another. According to chemical online statistics, of the 62 major chemical products, there were 35 products rising in the first half of the year, and 27 declined products. So, which large chemical products market has continued to rise? Which large chemical products market has fallen sharply? What is the trend of these chemical products markets in the second half of the year? In this regard, a series of reports on the "Chemical Market Inventory of the 2022" Essence

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In the first half of the year, the butadiene market can be described as unlimited, and the overall price continued to fluctuate. Although it failed to keep the upward trend in mid -late June, the results were still eye -catching. According to the statistics of chemical industry, as of June 30, the market price of butylene had increased from 4,350 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to 10,300 yuan, an increase of 136.8%, ranking the top of the increase.

In the first half of the year, the domestic trendie market trend unit: Yuan/ton

Jilin Petrochemical Sales staff He Junsong: Price fluctuations rise

In the first half of the year, the trend of butadiene market showed M -shaped, and the first quarter continued to rise.

Specifically, the butadiene market has risen rapidly after the decline at the beginning of the year, and the market rising emotions are obvious. After the market fluctuation is shattered in February, it continues to go on wide. In March, the relay rose, and the price easily crossed the 10,000 yuan mark.

In the second quarter, the butadiene market was suppressed first, and it continued to rise in early June to the year of the year. Taking the price of the Shandong Luzhong area as an example, the price of butyne on June 8 rose to 12,800 yuan, and it fell below 10,000 yuan on June 28 to run to 9,700 yuan.

The important factor in the overall uplifting market is the support of the cost -oriented petroleum. In March, the price of stone brain oil refreshed historical highs. Since then, although the emergence of the epidemic has caused the market to cool down and enter the long -term sideways, the overall performance is still remarkable, the lowest point is the beginning of the year. As of the end of June, the prices of direct distillation of petroleum oil in Shandong increased by 15.83%from the beginning of the year and a year -on -year increase of 21.15%; the price of hydrogen oil oil increased by 14.76%from the beginning of the year, an increase of 20.84%year -on -year.

In addition, the outer disk price of T -diodes began to be higher than domestic spot prices in mid -March. The price difference between some time periods from April to May was higher than 1,000 yuan. It also boosted the domestic butadiene market.

Zhongyu Information Analyst Meng Xiao: The cost may be softened

In the first half of this year, in the history of international oil prices, it exceeded 100 US dollars/barrels and stood firmly, which led the bulk chemical market to set a historical record.

Judging from the market market, the situation of Russia and Ukraine, Iranian issues, the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes and OPEC+output strategies or several major concerns. The latest statement of Ukraine hopes that the conflict will be over before the end of the year. The Russian -Ukraine conflict will have a high probability of ending in the second half of the year; the negotiations of the Iranian nuclear issue have restarted, and it can be lifted only after the United States recognizes it; It will also emerge; OPEC+will "fill" before the end of August, and whether it will continue to increase production in the future is also an important factor. In summary, there are still potential factor factors in the international crude oil market in the second half of the year.

The trend of the petroleum market still depends on the "face" of international crude oil. The support of crude oil has weakened expectations. In addition, the second half of the year Shenghong refining and reorganization device and Hainan refining ethylene device are put into production, but the demand is still relatively weak in the macroeconomic face, resulting in the difficulty improvement of downstream demand. It is expected that it is expected In the second half of the year, the domestic petroleum market has a high probability of shaking the trend, the price center of gravity moves down, and it is difficult to form a strong driving of butadiene in terms of cost, and the risk of market decline has increased.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Zhang Xiuping: supply and demand seek a new balance

As my country's refining and chemical integrated projects have been put into construction one after another, the production capacity of butadiene will continue to increase passively, and the overall supply surface will still have growth expectations.

Earlier, some institutions predicted that in 2022, there will be 5 sets of butyne devices in my country. According to ICIS data, the effective production capacity growth rate in my country in 2021 was 10.3%, while the effective production capacity growth rate in 2022 will increase to 13.4%.

Specifically, in the first half of the year, only Zhenjiang Refined 160,000 tons/year of butadiene production capacity was released. New capacity of thene may be released one after another.

From the perspective of demand, the adjustment of the downstream consumption field of butadiene in the past few years has not been large.

Earlier, some agencies predicted that in the lower reaches of Tennne in 2022, the total production capacity of the butd phenyl rubber industry was 120,000 tons/year; the total capacity of the slosite rubber industry was 250,000 tons/year; The total production capacity of the component of the colomorrhery segment (SBS) industry is 80,000 tons/year; the total production capacity of acrylite -butadiene -styrene triapes (ABS) is 3.11 million tons/year. However, affected by the outbreak and the downlink pressure on the peripheral economy, the terminal demand is difficult to speak and optimistic, and the release of the above capacity may be delayed.

It is worth mentioning that the ABS industry is limited in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it will usher in a period of centralized production capacity. ABS may gradually show excess supply in the second half of the year.These capacity release will support the tanniene market.In addition, the development of the new downstream 腈 作为 is relatively mature, but there is no production of industrialized devices in China.At present, 6 companies in China have or planned their own two -腈 project.Among them, the maximum production capacity is 400,000 tons/year, which is expected to be put into production in the second half of the year.If it can be put into production on time and ABS, the downstream consumer structure of the domestic butadiene will be significantly adjusted.

Considering the release of new capacity and downstream of butthonne and downstream, but on the timeline, butadiene is put into production, there are also differences in the scale.Essence

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