The six major foreign institutions are looking forward to the second half of the year: China's continuous recovery of A shares will still lead the world

Since the beginning of this year, my country has introduced a policy of stabilizing the economy, promoting the recovery of the economy accelerated, and the attraction of foreign capital has gradually increased. On July 14, a reporter from "Securities Daily" interviewed six foreign financial institutions including Citi, Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs, UBC, Berlaide, and Lianbo. Related representatives generally believe that the continuous recovery of China's economic recovery in the second half of the year is high, and the stock market It will continue to lead, and the trend of foreign investment in A shares will remain.

Increased policies in the second half of the year

Consolidate the momentum of recovery

A number of foreign institutions interviewed by reporters generally believe that in the process of stable economic policies, the Chinese economy shows a recovery trend that other economies do not have. "China is on the other side of the economic cycle and is gradually recovering." Wang Xinjie, chief investment strategist of Standard Chartered.

Zhu Liang, director of investment director of Lianbo Huizhi, said that under the circumstances of some overseas economies, under the circumstances of high inflation and global liquidity shrinkage, my country's inflation is mild and controllable, without hike pressure, and liquidity is relaxed. At the same time, there is also greater space to implement positive fiscal policies, providing a good environment for local governments to raise financing and support economic development.

Yu Xiangrong, the chief economist of Citi Group, said that the problem of the domestic economic supply side has been significantly improved, but the recovery of demand is still time. Infrastructure is the main force to improve investment. In the second half of the year, real estate and residents' consumption still need to be boosted.

"It is expected that the government will take more positive policies and measures, including adjustment of the down payment ratio, lowering the mortgage interest rate, and relaxation of purchase restrictions to further restore the confidence of buyers." Yu Xiangrong said that the real estate support policy will continue until the sales and investment will return to return to return to return to return to return. Positive track.

At the level of residents' consumption, Hu Yifan, the investment director of the Asia -Pacific region and the macroeconomic director of the Asia -Pacific region, believes that the growth of consumption in the second half of the year is to recover the service industry. "According to high-frequency data, the service industry is only 50%-60%in 2019. As the epidemic affects further weakening, the service industry consumption and comprehensive consumption improvement are hopeful." Hu Yifan said.

Song Yu, the chief Chinese economist of Belle, also believes that from a macro and micro perspective, stable economic policies are working, and the infrastructure industry has rebounded with the support of the policy.

In the second half of the year, infrastructure investment is still an important starting point for steady growth. "In the long run, the shortcomings of infrastructure still exist, and industrial upgrading and energy transformation also requires the cooperation of new infrastructure. In the short term One of the main means of growth, "Yu Xiangrong analyzed. At the same time, he predicts that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will increase from 0.4%last year to 7.7%this year, and maintained at about 5%in 2023.

Many foreign institutions predict that in the process of continuous landing and transmission of economic policies, or new incremental policy tools will continue to consolidate recovery momentum.

Hu Yifan said that fiscal policy will continue to make efforts and now see more measures, such as subsidies for new energy vehicles and local governments for consumption.

Yu Xiangrong also held a similar point of view, saying that "the government may add at least 1.5 trillion yuan in financial incremental funds in the second half of the year. The way to supplement funds includes the amount of local government debt in advance, increased the profit of state -owned enterprises, and the balance of survival of the stock, but The possibility of issuing special government bonds or amendments to amending budgets is declining. "

A -share continuous lead

Foreign capital will still increase

In the second half of the year, China's economic recovery is clear, and foreign institutions generally believe that the overall Chinese stock market will still be better than other global markets.

Standard Chartered China's offshore and shore stocks in Asia (except Japan) have been raised to "superpatients". In addition, the investment group strategy team of Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department recently issued a research report that the Chinese stock market has rebounded from a low valuation. Following the strong recovery and leading performance in the past three months, it will still lead other markets in the world. "The Chinese stock market is supported by various macroeconomics, policies, cyclicals, and positions. It will still lead other markets in the world and continue to recommend high -profile Chinese A shares and H shares."

Zhu Liang said that the current emotions of the Chinese stock market have been significantly repaired. In the context of the continuous efforts of the stable growth policy, the market liquidity is gradually relaxing. ) The performance of stocks and carbon neutrality.

Meng Lei, an analyst of UBS Securities China Strategy, said that the universal profit expectations may be approaching the end at the end of the third quarter, and the market is expected to usher in a more obvious valuation improvement at that time.

"Compared with the uncertainty of the world, China's economic recovery is strong in the second half of the year. With the further clearness of the economic recovery, the increased policy looser, the abundant macro -liquidity, and the continuous rebound of credit growth, it will help gradually gradually gradually rebound Promoting market emotions. Large -scale off -site funds are expected to enter the stock market in September to help the market start again. Therefore, any market callback will provide attractive investment opportunities in the next two months. "Meng Lei said.

Foreign -funded institutions generally believe that the proportion of foreign capital in the A -share market still has a lot of room for enhancement. It is expected that the trend of foreign investment in A shares will continue in the second half of the year.

"Generally, when the US dollar is strong, it will lead to net outflow of capital in emerging markets, but the current A -share market shows the trend of strong net inflows overseas capital." Zhu Liang believes that on the one hand, it is due to the role of China's stable economic support policy and the market flow is flowing.Sex is gradually relaxing, and the downward risk of the stock market is significantly less than other global markets.On the other hand, the valuation of the A -share market is still low compared to overseas developed markets, which is very attractive to overseas investors.The proportion of foreign capital in the A -share market has a lot of room for enhancement. It is expected that the trend of foreign investment in A shares will continue in the second half of the year.Meng Lei said that in history, during the period of low geographical political risks and low global market volatility, investors north will often buy A shares net.

Goldman Sachs Strategy Analysis Team judged that investors' positions have not fully reflected more positive emotions.Active global public fund funds are still low in about 440 basis points in Chinese stocks, while the allocation of emerging markets and Asian public fund allocation of Hong Kong stocks and the configuration of the Chinese stock market also needs to be improved.

Reporter Wu Xiaolu

Learr reporter Han Yu

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