Rating expectations to promote the US dollar index to innovate the high RMB exchange rate to maintain a stable situation

Since July, the US dollar index has continued to rise. On July 5th and July 6th, Eastern Time exceeded 106 and 107 integer points, respectively. After a few days of wandering, the US dollar index exceeded 108 on July 11, and re -stood at the 108 mark in the past 20 years. Since then, the rise of the US dollar index has not decreased. Wind data shows that as of 5:00 on July 14, Eastern Time, the US dollar index was touched by 108.6603, a new high since October 22, 2002.

Regarding the strong performance of the US dollar index, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that due to the continued rise in US inflation, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy heating up. After the inflation data was announced in June, the market is expected to raise interest rates at least 75 basis points in July, and it may raise interest rates of 100 basis points. The Fed will be more eagle and promote the US dollar index.

"On the other hand, the risk of economic stagnation of other non -US -developed economies in the near future has been further prominent. The euro zone faces more severe inflation pressure in the context of energy shortage. Although the European Central Bank has stated that in July The trend of inflation has led to the continuous derogation of the euro. The Bank of Japan continues to maintain a loose monetary policy and the yen has decreased significantly. The euro and the yen weakened to promote the upward of the US dollar. "Wang Youxin said.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Institute, believes that the Federal Reserve's 75 basis interest rate hikes in June and the subsequent greater rate hikes may have a greater booster effect on the US dollar index. At the same time, he told the Securities Daily reporter that the current new PMI order index of JP Morgan Chase's global manufacturing industry is approaching the Rongku Line, indicating that the global economy is highly pressed. In the period of macroeconomic, the probability of the outbreak of risk incidents will increase, and Lido will be used as the US dollar of risk aversion currency.

It is worth noting that while the US dollar index is strong, the RMB exchange rate trend is stable and shows full toughness. Since July, more offshore RMB to the US dollar's exchange rate that reflects international investors has fluctuated around 6.7. In addition, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose slightly. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 102.3 on July 1 and rose to 103.64 on July 8.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the strong RMB exchange rate is a reflection of the domestic fundamentals. Judging from the recent data, the domestic economy has shown a steady recovery trend, the economic structure has continued to optimize, the foreign trade performance is strong, the two -way flow of cross -border capital is smooth and orderly, and the international revenue and expenditure remains basically balanced, which has formed a strong support for the renminbi.

"Recently, the RMB trend is relatively strong in the background of the US dollar, which reflects the strong toughness of the renminbi. With the changes in the situation, the attributes of the hedging investment have been highlighted again." Wang Youxin believes that under the influence of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, the risk of economic recession risk Continuously intensify, the economic cycle of China and the United States is differentiated, and China's good economic fundamentals will give the market more confidence. In the context of the international financial market fluctuations, international investors have increased RMB assets to decentralize investment risks. The increasing and stable international trade surplus of cross -border capital inflows has maintained basically stability to support the RMB exchange rate.

CICC also mentioned in the research report that my country ’s trade surplus in June was about 97.9 billion U.S. dollars, a record high, continuing the external demand than domestic demand. Below, the continuous inflow of goods trade continues to support the RMB exchange rate.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Wang Youxin predicts that the US dollar index will show the front height and low trend. In the third quarter, the US dollar index will still be supported by the Federal Reserve. The positive effect that will exceed the tightening of monetary policy, and the US dollar index may turn around in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the RMB exchange rate may be put on a certain pressure in the third quarter, but after entering the fourth quarter, with the dynamic changes in the economic recovery of the Sino -US economic recovery, the positive factors will gradually become highlighted, and the renminbi will be strengthened again.

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