The probability of 100 basis points in the U.S. inflation in June this month increased sharply

On July 13, local time in the United States, the Federal Reserve released a regional economic survey report, commonly known as the "brown book" (hereinafter referred to as the "Brown Book"). The price is still at a historical high.

"Blind Book" proposes that although the U.S. economic activities have increased at a mild rate since mid -May, there have been signs of weakening demand in some regions. Mainly due to the rise in food and oil prices, the disposable income of the family is reduced. There are also five regional contacts worrying about the risk of economic recession. Similar to the previous report, various regions still have the attitude towards economic prospects. It is expected that the demand will continue to weaken in the next six months to one year.

On the same day, the US Department of Labor released data showed that the U.S. inflation in June exceeded expectations, and the CPI increased by 9.1%year -on -year, with a previous value of 8.6%. The year -on -year increase in CPI reached a new high since 1981.

In terms of sub -items, energy, housing, and food items have greatly increased the inflation growth in the United States in June. Energy items, as the largest contribution of inflation, have risen 41.6%year -on -year, of which gasoline prices rose the most obvious, a year -on -year increase of 59.9%. Although oil prices began to decline from mid -June, it rose 11.2%from May. Far exceeding the level of last month. In housing items with high inertia, indicators that reflect the rent price have emerged since 1986, and the increase in house prices is gradually transmitting to rent prices, and rental materials will continue to rise.

In addition, food prices rose sharply by 10.4%year -on -year. Cleveland Federal Reserve said in the Blind Book that a local company is considering providing a member card for warehousing supermarkets in order to alleviate employees' concerns about high food prices to save the cost of living.

"In addition to the impact of raw materials, energy supply impacts, food and food supply impact, labor supply and other factors, the current high inflation rate in the United States also has the disturbance of 'expected factors'. In addition to the internal promotion of the economy itself, it also shows the' self -loop of self -loop 'The trend of strengthening. "Teng Tai, the dean of the New Economic Research Institute and the chairman of the Wanbo Brothers Asset Management Company, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the persistent inflation problem is emerging in the United States.

Under the tightening monetary policy, the inflation data in the United States in June did not occur in the expectations, and the expectations of the Fed's more radical interest rate hike also increased sharply. As of 24:00 on July 13, local time, the reporter of "Securities Daily" calculated in real time based on the Fedwatch tools of the Zhishang Institute, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes 100 basis points in July (from the current 1.50%-1.75%interest rate range to 2.50%-2.75 The probability of) is about 80%, and the probability of this week was 0. At present, the probability of 75 basis points in interest rate hikes is 20%, and the options of 50 basis points in interest rate hike have been "excluded" by the market.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said in an interview with the Securities Daily that in June, the US inflation was still beyond the most pessimistic expectations in June. Under the circumstances of the short -term increase in inflation expectations and the inflation inflection point uncertainty, the Fed may increase the interest rate hike again for the anchor market expectations. In July, there will be a possibility of 100 basis points in interest rate hikes.

Teng Tai analyzed that the Fed's goal was to find a balance among inflation level, economic growth and employment. However, due to early judgment mistakes, the current decision -making is very passive, and it is likely to take radical interest rate hike measures under pressure. However, in the past six months, the Federal Reserve has rapidly raised interest rates, which has greatly improved the actual financing costs, and the blow to American companies 'investment and residents' consumption has greatly increased, or the risk of recession is increased. The Fed is facing severe "both" to control inflation "and to prevent economic decline.

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