How much will the euro fall on China?Expert: RMB has not been significantly affected yet

[Global Times Reporter Zhao Juezhen Global Times Special Reporter Aoki in Germany] Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the shortage of energy supply, and the economic recession, a rare scene appeared in the euro area: on the 14th local time, the European foreign exchange market on the European foreign exchange market fell to 1 The euro was exchanged for $ 0.9953, the lowest level in the past 20 years. A number of experts told the Global Times reporter on the 14th that the depreciation of the euro has a direct connection with the rapid appreciation of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, but behind it is multiple factors such as concerns about the European economy. At the same time, the two -way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in the near future is at a reasonable level and has not been significantly affected.

Data map. Picture source IC Photo

According to Bloomberg, the euro approaching the US dollar or even falling below the affordable situation, subverting people's long -term "euro is more expensive than the US dollar". The euro, which was launched in 1999 and is currently being used as a general currency by 19 countries, has been performing firmly before, and has reached a maximum of nearly 1.6 US dollars in 2008. According to the Washington Post, since the beginning of this year, the euro has been falling against the US dollar and has fallen by about 12%so far.

Recently, the euro has been depreciating. Catalin, a female engineer living in Burger, plans to have a year of American journey and may face shelving. She told the Global Times reporter that in the summer of 2008, when she went to study in the United States, she could also redeem around $ 1.60. It was still $ 1.19 a year ago, and it is now affordable. She complained that at the beginning of the year, a standard house in the US four -star hotel only cost about 100 euros every night, and now it has risen to 200 or 300 euros.

Robert is a manager of an import and export company. The company mainly imports American food and alcohol. He told the Global Times reporter that for European importers like them, products imported from the United States to Europe and the US dollar are more expensive. The company had to reduce imports and changed similar consumer goods from other European countries.

On the contrary, it is the best time for Americans to travel in Europe. The head of the German National Tourism Administration Petra Hepador said that a strong US dollar can give potential American tourists an extra motivation to travel to Germany. In May alone, more than 100,000 Americans landed in Germany. German media said that for Americans, everything is cheaper than decades, just like getting about 10%of discounts on all products.

The direct factor of the decline in the US dollar exchange rate is the appreciation of the US dollar. Recently, the US dollar index has maintained near 108 points in a row. On the 13th local time, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Department of Labor rose 9.1%year -on -year, the largest increase since November 1981, which also caused the market to predict the Fed or continue to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes.

But the depreciation of the euro is not just an appreciation of the dollar. "Like all currencies, the strength of the euro depends on people's confidence in it." The New York Times said that the decline in the euro has exacerbated concerns about the euro zone. Goldman Sachs recently predicted that the probability of a decline in the euro zone in the next year is 40%. Liang Haiming, Dean of the Silk Road Zhigu Research Institute, told the Global Times reporter that some analysis showed that every one percentage point of the euro area's economic expectations dropped, the euro would fall by 2%.

Zhao Yongsheng, a researcher at the National Institute of Foreign Opening and Global Innovation and Governance of the University of Foreign Economic and Trade, told the Global Times reporter that since 2008, Europe has been affected by the European debt crisis, new crown pneumonia, and Russia and Ukraine conflict. The vulnerability of its economy is even more prominent.

How low can the euro fall? German news television states that once the first breaks are broken, in extreme cases, it may slip to 0.95, "that will be a slap." Experts believe that European currency continues to decline or rise, which largely depends on Russia's decision to supply natural gas.

The depreciation of the euro is also reflected in the exchange rate of RMB to a certain extent. On the 14th, 1 euro was 6.76 yuan, which was also significantly declined compared to about 7.2 yuan at the beginning of the year. However, the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar remains tough and the market is stable.

Change rate changes usually have a direct impact on trade. In the first quarter of this year, the total value of China's and EU imports and exports reached 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.2%. Zhao Yongsheng said that the depreciation of the euro is conducive to the export of commodities to China, especially Economy such as Germany, which will bring some changes to China -Europe trade, but it will not affect the Sino -European trade structure due to changes in exchange rates. Liang Haiming reminded that the role of China -Europe currency exchange should be further played, expanding the scale of renminbi and euro pricing and settlement, so that China -Europe bilateral trade and investment exempt human exchange rate risk damage caused by third -party currencies (such as US dollars).

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