How fast will Kishida Wenxiong promote the constitutional amendment process?

The results of the 26th Senate election in Japan were announced on July 11. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Gongming Party led by Prime Minister Kishida have won over half of the seats. If there is no accident, Japan will not hold a large state -of -state election in the next three years, and Kishida Wenxiong is expected to usher in the "golden 3 years" in governance.

A major change brought by this election is that the Liberal Democratic Party, the Gongming Party, the Japanese Restoration Association, and the Kuomintang Democratic Party, which are regarded as the constitutional amendments of Japan, occupied more than two -thirds of the seats of the Senate. An important "threshold" that mentioned the constitutional amendment.

Several Japanese issues told reporters that the Kishida Wenxiong government has faced the people's livelihood, epidemic and other issues, which are difficult and urgent, but considering that he can stabilize the governance in the next 3 years, and the conditions for the constitutional amendment are already available, Japan's constitutional amendment process It is expected to accelerate sharply within his tenure; whether you can achieve substantial progress will be affected by multiple factors.

Where is the "amendment to the constitutional" in Kishida's governance goals?

Compared with the opening of the "Gold 3 Years" in power, the key breakthroughs made by the Japanese Constitution forces in this Senate election are more noticeable.

In the Japanese House of Representatives in October last year, the "Four Party Amendments" had occupied more than two -thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives. Therefore, the Senate election was deemed to be a key battle to sound the formal amendment of the constitution as soon as possible. According to the statistics of the Senate election announced on July 11, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Gongming Party Governance Alliance has obtained 76 seats, plus 70 non -re -election, and a total of 146 seats in the two parties. The Japanese Recent Fair and the National Democratic Party also performed strongly. They received 12 and 5 seats, plus 14 unsuasive seats, and 31 seats in the Senate. At this point, the "Four Party Amendments" won a total of 177 seats, exceeding 166 seats in the total number of Senate seats. The constitutional amendment forces have risen significantly, while the left -wing and constitutional protection forces are further weakened.

According to the Japanese Constitution, if the constitutional amendments in the two colleges have more than two -thirds of the seats, the constitutional amendment can be initiated. After the Senate election, Kishida Wenxiong will notice the constitutional amendment.

On July 10, Kishida Wenxiong said on the issue of constitutional amendments on a program of Fuji TV: "We will initiate motion as soon as possible and then put it into a referendum." On the afternoon of July 11, Kishita Wenxiong said at a press conference held at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters that the legacy of the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was killed by the gun, was committed to solving the problems such as constitutional amendments and being abducted by the Japanese. Discuss in the constitutional amendment of Congress that "will strive to advance to the proposal as soon as possible."

How fast will Kishida say "as soon as possible" and "as soon as possible"? He said at a press conference on July 11 that he was highly looking forward to the ruling party and the opposition party "a more active discussion on modifying the Constitution in a Congress of this fall." In response, Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Department of International Relations of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with China Youth Daily · Zhongqing.com on July 12: "The focus of Kishida's statement is to discuss, not to the constitutional amendment. It is called the "Constitution" to discuss how to amend the constitution. This requires a process, maybe you can complete the discussion soon, and maybe you will be discussing in the next 3 years. "

Kishida Wenxiong said on July 10 that "further deepening the parliament's debate on the Constitution" is to prepare specific constitutional amendments. However, the reporter of the Japanese NHK Political Line, Yamazaki, believes that "the constitutional debate is expected to be more active, but it will quickly cause the constitutional amendment proposal to be uncertain."

Liu Jiangyong believes that although Kishida does not regard the constitutional amendment as a "must be resolved" in his tenure like Abe Jinsan, the constitutional amendment is related to its governing foundation. Support, he will inevitably move in the constitutional amendment, and the introduction of Congress discussion is an effective way. This can not only respond to the requirements of "Abe" and other constitutional amendments, but also avoid disrupting the current priority of governance. Kishida Wenxiong stated in an interview with the media on July 10 that the rise in prices caused by the new crown pneumonia and the Russian and Ukraine War will be his current primary task, but he also expressed that it will steadily promote the strengthening of Japan's national security and constitutional amendments to the constitutional amendment. the meaning of.

Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Japanese Institute of Social Sciences, also pointed out in an interview with China Youth Daily · China Youth Network on July 12: "Kishida is the President of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then the Prime Minister of Japan. Seeing that Kishida will naturally actively promote the initiative of the constitutional amendment, but in the short term, people's livelihood is more important to him. "For the Liberal Democratic Party, how to lead Japan to get out of the current economic difficulties is the top priority. "The people are most concerned about people's livelihood and economic issues. If severe inflation, prices soaring, and sharp depreciation of the yen continue, it will eventually shake the governing foundation of Kishida."

During the short term, it is difficult to progress substantial progress

In the process of promoting the constitutional amendment, the Kishida Government may act with caution. One of the reasons is that there are serious differences in the demands of constitutional amendments.

The current constitution of Japan is also known as the "Peace Constitution" and was implemented in 1947. Among them, there are two famous Article 9 of them. One is, "Japanese citizens sincerely seek international peace based on justice and order, and will always abandon the war, force threats or force of force launched by national power as a means to solve international disputes." "In order to achieve the purpose of the previous model, do not maintain the power of land, sea, air and other war, and not acknowledge the country's right to fight." In other words, this clause banned Japan from having an army and denied that Japan's right to mobilize war. This is also the basis for the Japanese Constitution to be called the "Peace Constitution." Since the presence of the Peace Constitution, Japanese conservative political forces have been trying to promote constitutional amendments. The core is to modify the above two terms. But for how to modify it, the "Four Party Amendments" is not small. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japanese Restoration will strongly advocate that "the Self -Defense Force clearly writes into Article 9 of the Constitution" and "New Emergency Terms in the Constitution" and so on. Kishida Wenxiong said on July 10 that four constitutional contents including the self -defense team were included in Article 9 of the Constitution and emergency clauses, which was "a urgent, modern issue that must be pushed forward." The Liberal Democratic Party's governing partner Gongming Party is more cautious about this and advocates adding clauses in the Constitution, rather than modifying Article 9 of the Constitution. The National Democratic Party emphasizes that it will promote the discussion of Article 9 of the Constitution. Therefore, in addition to initiating the constitutional amendment, the Liberal Democratic Party also needs to solve the differences between the three constitutional amendments on demands. In the past, as the key "leader" of constitutional amendments, coupled with his political influence, Shinzo Abe often came forward to coordinate the differences within the constitutional amendment forces; now Abe is assassinated, who can replace him to coordinate all parties. It is also a problem.

It is difficult for the political parties of Japan to reach a consensus on constitutional amendments in the short term. For example, the constitutional Democratic Party in the field has remained vigilant about the urgency of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Restoration Association that restricts basic human rights, and it is clear that "constitutional amendment is not the best priority issue" and believes that the careful discussions on constitutional amendments are indispensable. The Representative of the Communist Party of Japan said that it was a dangerous path to take the opportunity to expand the army and modify the constitution to involve Japan into the war.

Lu Yaodong also believes that Japan's constitutional amendment is not only aimed at Article 9, but the content of the constitutional amendments between the parties is also different. Although it has the conditions to discuss constitutional amendments, it takes a process to form a consensus.

In addition to the discussion and coordination between the party factions, the public opinion is also a key factor in order to achieve substantial progress in Japan.

According to the constitutional amendment set by the Japanese Constitution, even if the constitutional amendment was approved in Congress, national voting was required to obtain more than half of the national support to modify the constitution. Although Kishida Wenxiong said on July 11 that the results of the Senate election reflected the "public opinion of the constitutional amendment", the latest polls of the "Asahi Shimbun" in Japan showed that 59%of those who do not need to change the constitution, most Japanese people hope to Guard the constitution.

During the period of the Prime Minister of Abe's third as Prime Minister, Japan's constitutional amendments also controlled more than two -thirds of the Senate seats. Abe also proposed a constitutional amendment plan, but eventually forced to stagnate the constitutional process, the constitutional amendment process was quickly stagnant. Until he resigned from the position of Prime Minister in 2020, he did not complete the goal.

Liu Jiangyong said that in the next three years, the differences between the unity of the Liberal Democratic Party, the differences between the constitutional amendments, and the direction of public opinion will profoundly affect the progress of Kishida Wenxiong to promote constitutional amendment. It may also be shelved like Abe to delay the constitutional repair process. " For the long -term stable Kishida Wenxiong, this is an adventure, and some of them have been lost. "

The country of victims of World War II focused on Japan's constitutional amendment

On the surface, the constitutional amendment is the internal affairs of Japan; but due to the relevant Japanese peace constitution and its historical association history, Japan has always received great attention from the international community and neighboring Asian countries, especially the victims of World War II.

South Korea's "Korean Daily" reported on July 11 that the results of the Japanese Senate's election may make Abe's wish to "turn Japan into a war -capable country". With the history of Japan's foreign aggression and colonial history, it has not been thoroughly liquidated, and Japan has re -expanded military reserve through constitutional amendments and will trigger fierce protests in Asian countries such as South Korea and China. "Han National Daily" reported that the path of Japan's choice is to cope with "threats" through constitutional amendments and enhancement of military strength. Kishida Wenxiong said, "Now Japan faces many major topics to adopt countermeasures for very time, instead of adopting usual usual use of usual time, instead of using usual usual time "Policies", which is a cold reality that requires close attention to Japan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told the outside world on July 11 that the Chinese side hopes that the Japanese side will earnestly learn from historical lessons, adhere to the path of peaceful development, and use practical actions to trust in the Asian neighbor and the international community.

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