Xiang Haoyu: After Abe's assassination, will the Japanese constitutional amendment accelerate?

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's attacks have attracted widespread attention. Two days after the incident, the Japanese Senate's election voting was held as scheduled. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Gongming Party, which were governed, achieved overwhelming victory, further consolidating the governing position of Kishida Cabinet. In the next three years, if the House of Representatives will not be dissolved in advance, Japan will have no major national politics elections, and Kishida is expected to usher in a long period of stability. It should be noted that Kishida will continue to promote the "Abe route" in the future, or it will still focus on showing personal characteristics, which will have the policy of policies and even the development of national internal and foreign countries in Japan.

Focusing on the election of the Senate, the focus of the outside world is the issue of constitutional amendments. According to relevant Japanese laws, the initiative of the constitutional amendment requires more than two -thirds of the members of the two hospitals. Due to the ruling self -ruling and public parties occupy a stable majority of the two courts, and the "constitutional amendment" in the wild party, the strength to promote the active attitude of constitutional amendment has actually met the threshold for the Congress of the constitutional amendment. How to promote the constitutional amendment of the Kishida regime will become an important issue for domestic politics in Japan.

As a representative of the right -wing conservative forces in Japan, Abe's sudden death has undoubtedly caused a heavy blow to the Japanese right -wing group. In this regard, there is a point of view in Japan that after losing such a major promoter, the Japanese constitutional amendment process may temporarily slow down or even stagnate. There are also opinions that this incident may stimulate the "fighting spirit" of Japanese right -wing conservative forces. Some forces may accelerate the constitutional amendment process under the banner of inheriting Abe's "legacy".

As we all know, the reason why the current constitution of Japan is called the "Peace Constitution" is the ninth Article 9 of Japan's "abandonment of war, no protection of land, sea and air such as land, sea and air". Assure. At the same time, because the constitution was formulated and "imposed" to Japan after the war, it also made the Japanese right -wing conservative forces worried and regarded it as a major obstacle to achieve "independence" in the Japanese country. Essence Since the beginning of the party in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party has clearly written the constitutional proposition in the party's platform. During the Cold War, under the political pattern of conservative and innovative counterparts in Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party has not been radical to seek constitutional amendments, but instead pursues the "Yoshidaist" route that focuses on the "economy and light arms" to achieve economic take -off. After the end of the Cold War, with the continuous development of Japanese politics, the Liberal Democratic Party cabinet gradually broke through the constraints of the peace constitution by modifying the constitutional interpretation of the Constitution, and realized the gradual military loosening of overseas dispatched troops. Essence

Since the first administration of Abe in 2006, Abe has clearly proposed the political proposition of "getting rid of the post -war system" and restoring Japan's "normal country" status, and regards the constitutional amendment as an important governance goal. During Abe's twice, the constitutional amendment procedure was clarified by establishing the "National Voting Law", and then a modification of the constitutional interpretation of the collective self -defense rights to lift the collective self -defense to further overhead the constitutional constitutional constitution. Although Abe has become a rare strong Prime Minister in Japanese history, it is subject to the internal and external situation. It still fails to do so in the second term of 7 years and 8 months, and fails to launch a constitutional amendment procedure in substantially.

Judging from the current domestic political ecology and social public opinion, with the continuous development of conservative right tilt, Japan's domestic consensus on constitutional amendment itself is gradually increasing, but there is always sharp controversy on how to modify it. On the one hand, the political forces of each faction are still playing fiercely around the specific constitutional amendments. Especially on the amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution and whether to write to the "Self -Defense Force" and other sensitive issues, the Gongming Party and the Central Left Party who are governed still have cautious and opposing attitudes in the wild party. On the other hand, Japanese folks still have strong opposition. The polls of the Asahi Shimbun in May this year show that although the interviewees who believe that the constitutional amendment is "necessary" is 56%, 37%of the people think it is "unnecessary."

In the various polls before the Senate election, the policy issues that the Japanese people are most concerned about are still "economic people's livelihood". According to the polls at the end of June, Japan's NHK TV station, in the face of questions about the policies and subjects who hoped to discuss priority discussions, the respondents who chose "economic countermeasures" and "social security" ranked among the top two, accounting for 43%. And 28%, while "constitutional amendment" is only fifth, only 5%. This reflects an embarrassing reality, that is, the conservative politicians have noise, and the constitutional amendments have not been positive, and they have not been actively recognized by the Japanese people. Therefore, in the future, Kishida will not have to pay attention to this public opinion, and I am afraid it will be difficult to promote the relevant agenda.

It should be pointed out that, for other countries, the constitutional amendment belongs to one country's internal affairs, but the issue of constitutional amendments in Japan is different from special sensitivity and influence of other countries. The Peace Constitution is the product of the unconditional surrender of the war that launched the war of aggression to the outside world, and it is one of the symbols of the post -war international order. Japan's right -wing as a symbol of "defeat country", advocating that only through the "independent constitution" can the country's independence and dignity be restored. The hidden logic behind it is the dissatisfaction of the trial of Tokyo after the war, and it is inherited from the wrong right -wing history. This is what the international community should be highly vigilant.

The victims of the Japanese foreign aggression war, including China and South Korea, have always urged Japan to deeply reflect on foreign aggression and colonial history, and adhere to the path of peacetime development stipulated by the Constitution.In the process of discussing and promoting the constitutional amendment of Japan, Japan should effectively learn from historical lessons and respect the feelings of neighboring people around the country.The Liberal Democratic Party "Hongchi Society" led by Kishida has always attached great importance to friendly relations with neighboring Asian countries. The older generation of Japanese politicians such as Daiping Masako and Miyazawa, who came from the school, made positive contributions to improving the development of Sino -Japanese relations.With the steady foothold after the election of the Senate, I look forward to the long -term interests of Kishida from Japan, and make active efforts to improve the development of relations with neighboring Asian countries.(Xiang Haoyu, a special researcher at the Asia -Pacific Research Institute of the China Institute of International Issues, the original text was published on July 11, the Global Times)

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