What exactly is the truth of the global shipping price of "Backpot Man" in the United States?

The problem of congestion of the port is deeply affecting the trend of the US economy, which not only causes chaos in the United States, but also constitutes a political risk for Biden. Condorns are just the appearance that can be easily seen; what cannot be seen easily is the political confrontation behind it, and other deep truths ...

On the eastern coastline of the United States, tens of thousands of containers stacked together in the Port of Georgia.

Picture source: New York and New Jersey Port Authority

The port of Savana is the largest container terminal in North America. As the head of the port, Griff Link opened his eyes every day and had to be busy for these piles of containers.

"The owner does not come to pick up the goods. We have never seen the port stacking yard and was stuffed so full." Lin Qi said.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the global marine collection cost has opened a mad price increase model. Multiple ports on the east and west coast of the United States have restricted the global transportation industry's capacity, and further supported the soaring marine collective prices. The cost pressure was quickly transmitted to all aspects of the life of American consumer life. In addition, it is worth mentioning that on July 13, data from the US Labor Statistics showed that the United States CPI in June increased by 9.1%year -on -year, the highest since November 1981, and increased by 1.3%month -on -month. Essence

In the same port, why was there no blockage before the new crown epidemic outbreak? The blockage of the port is only one of the reasons for the price increase, and there are actually deeper problems.

The deep truth of port congestion and soaring shipping costs: (1) The reasons for high maritime prices are at least due to the blockage of US ports. (2) The main factors of the rise in global shipping prices are the growth of US currency supply, which has stimulated demand and caused the United States to absorb a large number of imports. (3) The changes in consumer models caused by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the surge in e -commerce orders, and the expected blocking measures have led to an increase in the demand for the import of finished products, leading to long -term congestion in the port of the United States, Europe, and Asia.

The chain chaos in the United States and Port has dragged down the US economy

In May of this year, the total of nearly 520,000 20 -inch standard containers transported the port of Savana, and the size of the same size container transportation created in October 2021 was a record high in history.

"We have never been so big." Lin Qi said.

Because there are not enough truck drivers to transport the goods to the next destination, nearly a thousand containers have been stranded by the cargo owner at the port of the Savana River, which is one month or longer.

When the staff of Savana's ports handled the backlog of the container, Lynch could only let the collective ships wait for a few days at sea. More than ten or twenty ships were trapped in 17 nautical miles outside the Port of Savana. It was the unusual picture in the waters near the port of Savana in the past year.

The congested Savana Port is just a microcosm of the "supply chain chaos" in the United States. In fact, since the second half of last year, the congestion of the east and west coasts of the United States has become more and more serious.

Since Los Angeles and Long Beach Port on the West Coast of the United States last year, many ships have tried to bypass the ports in South California, and the Port of Oakland, Samfana, and Charliston in South Carolina have become times. Outstanding choice.

Today, ships trying to enter the United States have flooded to New York State and New Jersey Port on the East Coast.

According to the latest data from the New York and New Jersey Port Authority (Panynj), as of the week of July 1, an average of 18 container ships waiting outside the port, a new high since the start of the epidemic, average per ship must stay in the port for 3.32 days. Essence

Bloomberg reported that the tight supply chain tension caused by the severe blockage of ports has dragged down on the US economy, and it has also constituted political risks for US President Biden Biden.

The blockage of the East and West Coast ports restricted the global transportation industry's capacity, and further supported the surfing cross -Pacific collection price. With the high rising shipping price, the cost pressure is quickly transmitted to all aspects of consumer life through various channels.

In June, American inflation rose 9.1%year -on -year, a new high since November 1981.

However, in the face of the highest inflation in the past 40 years, Biden has not pointed the spearhead to the Federal Reserve's super loose monetary policy over the past two years, nor has it soared that the commodity prices caused by the Russian and Ukraine conflict have skyrocketed. OxonMobil and other oil merchants and collectors, and called on Congress to pass the bill to reduce energy costs and shipping prices.

On June 16th, Eastern Time, Biden signed the "Maritime Reform Act", which aims to reduce the cost of transportation costs, and has made the most significant amendments to the United States for shipping rules since 1998.

Biden said that the bill can reduce the retail cost of commodity that has been high since the new crown epidemic, thereby alleviating the historic high inflation.

Supporters of the bill said the bill would help suppress inflation and alleviate the backlog of export goods.

The key components of the "Maritime Reform Act" include: prohibiting the unreasonable refusal of the shipping carrier to unreasonably refuse to export cargo compartment accommodation and discriminate against US exporters.

Should the gathering industry be responsible for the high inflation of the United States? Why is the price of sea transport soared?

Shipping costs 10 times the year 10 times that the maritime company "knocks"?

For a long time, Haiyun has been an important part of the international trade and transportation market for its low price.

However, the outbreak of the epidemic, the global shipping cost opened the crazy price increase model. In just one year, the cost of shipping has skyrocketed by 10 times.

"One of the key ways to suppress inflation is to reduce the cost of transporting goods through the supply chain." Before signing the "Maritime Reform Act", Biden condemned the high freight rates of shipping companies in public. He said that it was time to let the shipping company know that "the behavior of knocking the bamboo bar is over." Biden's problem of the high price of containers is too high to blame the market lack of competition. Biden issued a push on June 17, "Most of the world's shipping was controlled by 9 large companies. During the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, these companies increased their freight by 1000% - , Will allow us to fight these excessive price increases. "

Biden believes that these shipping companies achieved a profit of 190 billion US dollars in 2021, 7 times that of the previous year, and these high profits were actually transformed into costs applied to ordinary people in the United States.

The reporter noticed that although Biden did not name the name of nine shipping companies, the data provided by professional institutions in the industry, at present, the total market share of the top ten shipping companies accounts for 84.7%.

"Statement on the competing situation of the cross -Pacific shipping company recently issued by Biden, it does not match the facts in some aspects, and it has not received the support of the Federal Maritime Commission (hereinafter referred to as FMC)." Lars Jensen, a person and CEO, pointed out when the email responded to the comments request of the reporter of the Daily Economic News.

FMC is an institution in charge of supervising sea transportation and improving the transparency of the industry. It is reported that the "Maritime Reform Act" signed by Biden has expanded the FMC's right to investigate, allowing FMC to investigate the carrier's business behavior, and grant FMC to adopt law enforcement measures.

So, as what is true, is the "knocking bamboo bar" pushing up the price?

FMC Chairman Rybeka Dai pointed out in the report that "the shipping market is fiercely competitive, and the high -sea transport rate is determined by the unprecedented consumer needs, mainly because the demand for consumers in the United States exceeds the supply capacity of the ship. Further restricting available capacity. "

Philip Damas, Managing Director of Druori Shipping Consulting Company, London, UK, believes that the statement of Bayeon said that the lack of competition in the shipping company is unreasonable. " Indeed, to a certain extent, the inflation of the United States has been pushed, but it cannot be said that the monopoly of major shipping companies in the world has pushed the freight rate. "

He pointed out in the comment email to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the reason why the high maritime price is high is caused by the blockage of the US port blocking, but this problem is controlled by the port authorities and the government, not by a collecting company about.

"There are as many as 15 shipping companies from Asia to the United States, and they are also competing with each other. Although some customers are worried, almost all these shipping companies are operating , But the regulatory agency is also paying close attention to the cooperation of the shipping companies in these alliances. Seeing that their alliance is good or bad for global trade. Shipping companies have risen inflation and costs due to lack of competition. Instead, the (capacity) supply is insufficient and the bottlenecks in logistics are high. "Damas added to reporters.

Running a net earning a ship in Europe, but "huge profits" is not the norm

So, did the shipping company really make money as Biden said in recent years? The answer is yes.

When the freight rate in 2022 is the highest, if a container ship with a full 20,000 standard box is from Shanghai to London, the shipping income of a voyage is about 160 million US dollars. After dividing various costs, it can basically smooth the cost of the ship, which is equivalent to the ship's boat, which is equivalent to the ship's ship. I made a net earning a boat in the east.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that from 2019 to 2021, the market price of the global container shipping market has risen by more than 5 times, setting the highest record in the history of the development of container shipping. This has led to a significant increase in logistics costs of enterprises, and some foreign trade enterprises are worried that they will not be able to ship on time to cause breach of contracts, and even take the initiative to abandon orders.

Marine companies that have been announced in the first quarter of this year have increased their operating income and profits year -on -year. For example, the first quarterly report released by the Global Maritime Giant, the French Dafei Sea Transport Group, showed that the total revenue during the reporting period was US $ 18.22 billion, a year -on -year increase of 69.9%; the profit of US $ 8.872 billion before the depreciation of the interest tax, a year -on -year rose 178.6%; The Group's net profit soared from US $ 2.078 billion in the same period last year to $ 7.199 billion.

It is not only driven by the favorable international freight rising costs, not just foreign shipping giants, but also the first quarter performance of China Maritime Corporation is also happy. For example, COSCO (SH601919, the stock price of 14.29 yuan, and a market value of 229.6 billion yuan) achieved revenue of 105.53 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 62.75%year -on -year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 27.617 billion yuan, an increase of 78.73%year -on -year.

However, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" noticed that as a typical cyclical industry, among the sea transport giants with public financial data, the net profit of the past few fiscal years has shown a sharp fluctuations. Profit.

Taking Masky as an example, its net profit has fluctuated very huge in recent years. As the world's largest container shipping operator and container ship supplier, Maski last year "earned" $ 18 billion, setting the highest single -year profit in the history of Danish companies. However, in the past 10 fiscal years, Masky has recorded a net loss in three fiscal years, of which in 2016, the loss reached $ 1.9 billion.

"Affected by the new crown epidemic, in the past few years, the demand in the United States/Europe has strong demand, bottlenecks in land -side transportation in many regions, seals related to new crowns have always existed, global supply chain is blocked, and the market supply and demand relationship is unbalanced. It is the reason for the rise in freight rates. "Jens Eskelund, president of Maski (China), told the Daily Economic News reporter in the email.

He added that factors such as the reduction of the cost of ship's dock operations, the rising costs of ships and container rental, and the increase in costs brought about by providing customers with supply chain replacement solutions, which also promoted rising freight rates.

In his opinion, the market trend will still be affected by factors such as the congestion of the port, the blocking of the supply chain network, and the high uncertainty of the demand model.

In addition to Maski, the performance of several A -share marketing companies also show similar cyclical fluctuations. Although COSCO Maritime Holdings recorded a net profit of 89.3 billion yuan in 2021. However, in the previous nine years, COSCO Maritime Control had a loss in two years, and from 2013 to 2015, net profit did not exceed 400 million yuan. Compared with the net profit of nearly 90 billion yuan last year, in 2017 and 2018, the net profit of COSCO Maritime Control was only 2.662 billion yuan and 1.23 billion yuan, respectively.

In addition, COSCO (SH601866, the stock price of 292 yuan, a market value of 39.7 billion yuan), Zhonggu Logistics (SH603565, a stock price of 15.07 yuan, a market value of 21.4 billion yuan) and Ningbo Haipai (SH600798, stock price 4.01 yuan, market value of 4.8 billion yuan), 2021 Net profit has also reached a new high of at least ten years, and its performance has also shown similar fluctuations in the past ten years.

It can be seen from the four years of financial reports from the four domestic and foreign maritime shipping companies at home and abroad. For the integrating industry, huge profits are very good. Over the past ten years, the explosive growth of the aforementioned company has also appeared only once (2021).

The rise in sea transportation prices is inseparable from the Fed's "water release"

It is not difficult to see that the common role of many factors has led to the rise in the current round of shipping prices.

"Insufficient supply of key shipping in international transportation cargo, and the lack of alternative transportation capacity (such as aviation transportation), which has led to raising the freight rate of major routes since the beginning of 2020." Damas's "Daily Economic News" The reporter pointed out.

He said that the surge in the global container trade volume has caused the shipping industry to be overwhelmed, because during the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, consumers' expenditure in commodity increased, and the decrease in expenditure in the service industry, which led to the United States, Europe, and Asia The port is long -term congestion.

Thomas Karen, chief analyst of the global shipping consulting agency Transport Intelligence, believes that the rise in maritime prices is inseparable from monetary factors. Karen said in the review request email of the reporter of the Daily Economic News that the main factor of the rise of global maritime prices in the past 1 to 2 years is the growth of US currency supply, which has stimulated demand and caused the United States to absorb a large number of imports in imports. Essence

In Karen's view, "People do not understand that the mechanism of sea transport pricing has been enlarged by the disorders of the sea transport logistics system that has followed. It has greatly exceeded the price range determined by the supply and demand relationship. "

In this regard, Dr Ajay Sahai, the Director -General and CEO of the Indian Export Organization Federation and CEO, agreed to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" by email, " Important factors include: the changes in consumer models caused by the new coronary pneumonia, the surge in e -commerce orders, and the expected blocking measures lead to an increase in the demand for the import of finished products. "

"Secondly, many countries and enterprises have also led to the rise in the price of sea transportation in response to the additional economic stimulus plan launched by a new wave of epidemic. The growth of demand is not matched with the supply of freight capacity on the market, which has also further increased the price of shipping prices." Sa Sa. The sea is further expressed.

Regarding the trend of global shipping prices, Damas told each reporter, "We believe that the freight in 2022 and 2023 will still be more than doubled before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia. The era of low sea transportation prices will be gone. "

Karen believes that "in the United States, retailers and other political influential lobbying groups are being affected by rising freight. They will seek remedial measures, but the real danger is that American politicians have regarded major shipping companies ( The "sinful sheep 'of the US high inflation) described them as an oligopoly to exploit American consumers."

In his opinion, in recent months, inflation has suddenly become a major political issue in the United States. "(US Government) plan is to pressure the economic supply end to control prices. One of the most attractive groups at the supply side is the collection company. Unfortunately, they are also the group with the smallest political influence. one."

The shortage of transportation power? Head company prompts risk

The third quarter of each year is the traditional peak season for sea transportation. European and American retailers and manufacturers usually book inventory and raw materials in advance to prepare for the Christmas holiday at the end of the year. However, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" noticed that after several rounds of transportation power, this year's traditional peak season, the global shipping industry seemed to begin to show the phenomenon of "not prosperous season".

Due to the slowdown in demand and the market's concerns about the decline in the US economy, the shipping person's high -priced freight contract signed by the consignor's previous shipping capacity and eager to supplement inventory is now becoming "a piece of waste paper."

This is because the current shipping market has already occurred in a rare phenomenon that the current freight price has fallen below the long -term price. Some traders are re -negotiating with the freight forwarding to modify their long -term shipping agreements signed by their peak periods, or simply adopt the current market freight to transport goods.

According to the FBX index issued by the Baltic Shipping Exchange, as of last Friday (July 8), the average price of the FBX container shipping was $ 6,495, which was more than 41%compared with the historical high in September last year.

"The amount of container transportation may soon be severely damaged." Recently, Matsky CEO Shi Suiren said in an interview with foreign media that it is expected to return to normal in the second half of 2022, and warned that globalization has not reversed. But the global container shipping market is unprecedentedly prosperous.

The German shipping giant Herbelot CEO Ralf Hamben Yangsen pointed out that large -scale new ship orders, congestion relief and demand decline. Happening.

The A -share leader COSCO Haikong also recently stated that the company's decision -making has been cautious in terms of expanding capacity and updating teams.

French shipping consulting agency Alphaliner also pointed out in a report that the current volume of container ships is about 900, which has set the largest order scale in the history of shipping. And the sum of existing fleets of the sixth largest team.

According to statistics from Guotai Junan, according to the current delivery plan, from 2023 to 2024, the capacity scale of large ships (mainly operating European and American routes) will enter a period of high growth in double digits.

Daejin Lee, chief shipping analyst of the S & P market, said in the review email of the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "We predict that the concentration price will be adjusted in the second half of 2022 and declines by 20% by 20%. ~ 30%, an average of about $ 6,000 to $ 7,000 (FEU, 40 -foot standard container) per box, and the price of the same period last year was an average of about 9,000 US dollars to $ 10,000 (Feu). "

Daily Economic News

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