Real Estate US dollar bond July crisis

On July 13, the reporter of the Economic Observer, Tian Guobao, continued the decline in the previous trading day. As of 21:00, 11 real estate USD bonds fell more than 3 cents per US dollar. Among them, the new city expired in August 2023 and Jianye's US dollar bonds in April 2023 fell over 6 cents per 1 US dollar.

On July 12, a total of 32 US dollars bonds fell more than 5 cents per 1 dollar. The largest decline was issued by Greenland. 6 beauty.

The price of US dollar bonds issued by real estate companies such as Sunshine City, Zhengrong, Yuzhou, Evergrande, Dafa, etc. has fallen below annual income. The debt price has fallen to 13 cents.

Some US dollar bonds issued by housing companies such as Zhongjun, Yajule, and Zhongliang remained within 30 cents. Even the US dollar bonds of central enterprises such as China Shipping and Jinmao fell into 80 cents.

As an investor in the US dollar bond, the real estate US dollar bond occupies a considerable proportion of Hu Jun's investment allocation. He said that the decline is so large and the scope of decline is so wide. It is not common in the real estate industry and other industries, "it has nothing to do with the fundamentals."

Recently, Hu Jun has been hesitating to clear all the real estate dollar bonds, or continue to hold a miracle. He told the Economic Observer that, in terms of investors, most private enterprises paying US dollar bonds are decreasing. "Such a low price is to use the bearing of the foot to pay."

Violent fluctuation

At around 16:00 on July 13th, the price of US dollar bonds expired in September 2022 fell 9.13%, and the current price was 9.95 cents; almost at the same time, Hongyang's price expired in April 2023 It fell to 12.9 cents and fell 6.9%; another US dollar bond in May 2024 fell 4.5%.

In addition, the US dollar bonds of housing companies such as Longguang, Rongxin, and Aoyuan also declined differently. Housing companies, which have already conducted debt exhibition or disclosed in default, the decline in bond prices is based on their debt -repaid risks that have been publicly exposed to investors, while a large number of liquidated or exhibition housing companies' bonds have fallen, which makes people understand.

7月13日23时左右，德信中国一笔2022年12月到期的美元债每1美元下跌6.1美分，价格已经跌入50美分以内；同一时间，新城一笔2024年12月到The US dollar bonds fell 7.8 cents per 1 US dollar, and the latest net price fell to 41.6 cents.

As of July 13, in the last week, 29 US dollar bonds fell more than 10 cents. Among the housing companies involved, Jianye and South China City had encountered liquidity risks, but they all received state -owned assets. New cities, Renheng, and ocean are generally considered to be real estate companies with relatively good liquidity.

If the time is extended to a month, a total of 40 US dollar bonds fell more than 20 cents per 1 dollar. Among them, Tianyu Real Estate, which just exploded, fell by 60 cents in 2023, and only 22 were left for net price. Beauty; Xuhui's permanent debt also fell more than 48 cents, with a net price of 33 cents.

Hu Jun introduced that the price of bonds has been fluctuating this year, and the overall fluctuations are not so fierce than last four quarters, but in the last month, some bond prices have begun to fluctuate. Especially in the past two or three days, the turbulence is extremely fierce. Essence

"The bonds that had been fell before or were about to explode the real estate enterprise. This round has been killed. Still the first time I met, "the meaning of the whole industry is clear."

Many investors, including Hu Jun, told the Economic Observer that this round of real estate USD bonds is sharply shocking, which is related to some public fund -raising positions. As the capital market continues to bear the real estate dollar bond The original 20%was reduced to less than 5%.

For public fundraising funds, similar warehouses are not so much stopping to cut meat. "Once a thunderstorm occurs, it is difficult to explain to investors, but at this time, the clearance or positioning is only lost. Investment makes up for it, "a financial institution person told the Economic Observer.

Someone cleared it, and some people shot. Hu Jun introduced that whether it is the US dollar bond market or the domestic bond market, there are a lot of high -yield debt investors like him. They use low prices to buy real estate bonds from the institution The field is similar to gambling capital games.

"Investing in the debt of 3 households, as long as one pays a redemption, you can guarantee that you will not lose money. Even if you introduce state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises for war investment, you can bring a wave of markets." You can get a lot of benefits every year; but if you are not lucky, you may also make a mess.

This wave of real estate US dollar debt has fluctuated violently. Although the direct reason is that some public funds are adjusted, in most investors, it is the capital market to vote. Among the credit bonds, the US dollar bonds are inferior. "Hu Jun said that even real estate companies without thunder will give priority to domestic bonds.

Expectation decrease

In the debt of housing companies, financing of development loans, trust borrowings, and other financing have land, projects or real estate as mortgages, but most of the credit bonds are not mortgaged, and only some credit bonds have actual controller guarantees. During the outbreak of real estate liquidity risks, mortgage creditors such as banks and trusts are the first to take the lead. Once the early repayment mechanism is triggered, it will generally be used to ensure debt repayment by freezing related account funds. Coupled with the rigorous supervision of pre -sale funds and the suspension of financial institutions, developers' cash flow was quickly dry.

For creditors of credit bonds, as long as the breach of contract is not triggered, even if the housing company is not bidding financing, it can only be taken until the bond exercise or expires. But at this time, the space that credit bond investors can choose from is often small, and more is passively accepted by the exhibition plan proposed by real estate companies.

In this round of real estate credit bond exhibition period, the real estate companies such as Sunshine City have added actual controller guarantees. Some real estate companies have added mortgage as a measure of credit increase. In order to successfully pass the exhibition plan, some US dollar debt exchange offers, real estate companies even even more. Give the "consent fee".

The same way of credit bonds, housing companies treat domestic bonds and overseas debts different. In the priority repayment sequence, except for the special situation of individual real estate companies, most real estate companies choose to protect domestic bonds and abandon overseas debt. This is also real estate overseas. One of the main reasons for bond prices.

Hu Jun said that overseas bonds are listed overseas, and disputes between borrowing parties can only conduct judicial lawsuits overseas. However, because most real estate companies do not have executed assets overseas, even if they sue overseas, they will not have substantial harvest; However, domestic bonds are different, and the main body of domestic debt issuance can be directly prosecuted. For developers, if the main body of the country falls into a judicial lawsuit, it may have an impact on daily operations.

In recent times, there have been many real estate companies such as Rongxin, Baolong, and Jinke on the exhibition period of corporate bonds. The capital market has also reported that China is about to delay the return rights of domestic debt. The plan began to communicate, but as of July 13, no announcement was issued.

DM data shows that as of July 14, there have been 21 real estate entities on credit bonds have disclosed breach of contract, of which five of the number of real estate companies in January and June have reached 5; 3 main bodies in March and May. From the perspective of liquidated bonds, most of the first default subjects are US dollar bonds.

And domestic bonds avoid legal defaults through exhibitions and other methods. According to Wind data statistics, as of July 13, a total of 98 real estate domestic credit bonds could not be redeemed, exercise and interest payment on time, including 52 and 43 exhibition periods.

U -stop in the property market

In addition to the risk of liquidity of real estate itself, an important factor that promotes investors to resolutely set a position on real estate US dollar debt is that the property market in mid -July showed a weak state again.

From the perspective of data, the real estate market bottomed out in April, and it started to rebound in May. In June, it continued to rise. According to Kerry data, the year -on -year decline in the top 100 real estate companies has reduced to about 50%. The improvement of the property market can not only improve the liquidity of housing enterprises, but also help accelerate the efforts of the assets of housing enterprises.

In fact, although the property market continued to rise in May and June, the liquidity of housing companies has not improved. Since May, 49 domestic credit bond defaults have been processed or exhibited; more than 10 real estate entities that have disclosed the contract for the first time. In early July, the real estate market declined sharply from the previous month, which also caused the capital market to lose patience to real estate companies again.

Wind data shows that from July 1-10, the transaction area of ​​30 large and medium-sized cities fell 54.9%month-on-month. From the data point of view, although the transaction in early July was slightly better in early June, it was far lower than in mid-June and late-end. Essence

In terms of cities, first -tier cities fell 39.4%month -on -month, second -tier cities fell 66.6%, third -tier cities fell 31.5%, second -tier cities fell the largest month -on -month decline, Hangzhou, Qingdao and other cities fell more than 80%, and Suzhou declined more than 70%.

Among the first and second -tier cities, in addition to the 15%rising transaction area of ​​Fuzhou's new houses, other cities that published data have fallen differently. Nanjing has fallen by 4.4%month -on -month. Thirty%of Guangzhou fell 66.7%.

The person in charge of the sales of a TOP30 housing enterprise told the Economic Observation News that there were also non -market factors in the early July of July. For example, June is the end of the first half of the year. Most housing companies have the needs of their performance. "In previous years, this trend was basically, and July was a decline in July."

However, it also acknowledged that in July of July in July, most of the declines in June were about 15%. In early July this year, it fell a large decline. There were both statistical calibers (compared to late June in early July), as well as market factors. He believes that a series of incidents have recently led to the worsening of the buyers' wait -and -see emotions, making the supply and demand relationship of the fragile property market even worse.

The market factors referred to as the property market disconnection incident. Recently, due to the extension of some real estate projects, or not being delivered on schedule, the buyer collectively issued a statement of disconnection. Multiple cities. According to incomplete statistics, as of the evening of July 13, more than 150 projects that have been discussed.

"Now the Internet is so developed. Seeing that you can't pay the supply because you can't pay the room, will I go to buy a house?" Hu Jun said that although the buyer's interruption incident symbolizes the substantial significance, the degree of impact on the real estate market will exceed It is expected that "even if you buy a house in the future, who dares to buy a house." The person in charge of the above TOP30 housing enterprise sales believes that even if the property market is around in July, it may be the normal market recovery of the market. "There are too many variable factors now, and the normal supply and demand relationship has been covered. However, if in August and September, it continues If you do it, the consequences may be more dangerous. "

Existence

On July 14, R & F issued an announcement saying that 10 USD debt exemption and exhibition consent fee had been paid, a total of 19.294 million US dollars, and 10 bills had been replaced with new bills after July 11. This means that R & F 10 US dollar debt exhibitions have been completed, and R & F only pays 0.5%of consent fees.

On the same day, Baolong issued an announcement saying that its US dollar bond exchange offer and consent to solicit with the consent have been completed, involving two in total 442 million US dollars. Baolong will pay the consent fee on July 15th and plan to issue two new bills, one of which, of which one of which, one of which, of which one of them will be issued. One of them will be issued. The pen expired US $ 170 million in July 2023, and another $ 263 million in January 2024.

As of now, whether it is the domestic debt exhibition period or the US dollar debt exchange offer, it is rarely unable to pass. "If you can't get through for the first time, you will come again until you pass it." Hu Jun said, so in the end almost all the bond exhibition periods will pass.

However, during the exhibition period of a bond, it is not possible to obtain the consent of all investors. This makes the same bonds, both of which are both in the exhibition period and a small part of the exhibition period. For example, the two bonds required for the Baolong exchange, one of which was 89.35%, and the other was 87.58%.

A US dollar debt investor told the Economic Observer that for the bond part of the votes without votes, housing companies generally adopt cold treatment methods. They are neither redeemed nor exhibition periods. According to his statement, if there is no redemption due to expiration, it can be regarded as a breach of contract.

Real Estate US dollar bonds have risen in 2012, but because of the rich domestic financing channels, there are few developers issued US dollar bonds except for some housing companies that have projects overseas. By 2016, the annual issuance of real estate dollar bonds was less than 10 billion US dollars.

Until 2017, due to the strict management of non -standard financing such as real estate enterprises, equity financing, trust, and asset management, some developers' financing was seriously affected. Evergrande with the largest debt, hundreds of billions of dollars in US dollar bonds accumulated in this context.

In 2017, the stock of real estate dollar bonds reached 162.5 billion yuan, and in 2021, it exceeded the US $ 200 billion mark. Data from Flush Shun shows that as of July 13 this year, overseas bonds in mainland housing companies accounted for 20.8%of Chinese -funded overseas bonds.

In the first half of 2022, mainland real estate companies issued US dollar bonds were only about 2 billion US dollars. In addition, it also issued 2 billion yuan in overseas bonds. Regardless of issuance and activity, it has declined significantly compared with previously.

There were 86 real estate US dollar bonds expired in 2022, with a due scale of 22.181 billion US dollars. In the first half of the year, a total of 22 real estate US dollar bonds conducted the exhibition period, involving a amount of 58.62 billion yuan. In addition, the size of the US dollar bonds expired in 2023 was US $ 58.7 billion, and it matched $ 42.2 billion in 2024.

As the US dollar bonds ranked behind in various debt repayment sequences, investors' confidence in real estate dollars dropped to the freezing point. Even if the issuance and reform committee was successfully recorded, almost no investors were willing to pay, which caused the issuance of US dollar bonds to almost stagnate and affected the city to the city. U.S. dollar bonds are issued in the fields of investment and finance.

According to the statistics of the Shanghai Institute and other institutions, in May, foreign capital held a total of 3658.89 billion yuan in domestic bonds, a decrease of 2.9%month -on -month and a decrease of 0.5%year -on -year.

Hu Jun believes that before the existing stock bonds were cleared, there was almost no new issue of real estate bonds. In the future, real estate US dollar bonds may not exist. There are only sixty or seventy, why buy full price notes. "

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