European "qi Wilderness", the United States "Fisheries"

With the continuous fermentation of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Russia and Europe's "natural gas war" intensified. According to the previous plan announced by the European Commission, the European Union plans to suspend Russia's natural gas by 2027. Looking for the source of natural gas replacement, it has become a top priority in Europe.

According to data recently, the International Energy Agency showed that the EU's LNG imported from the United States in June surpassed the pipeline natural gas imported from Russia for the first time. When Russia tighten the natural gas "valve", what are the calculations behind the United States to help the European Union to alleviate the "gas shortage"?

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According to Reuters, on July 11, local time, Russia's largest single -pipeline "Beixi 1" that Russia transported natural gas to Germany began the annual maintenance work, and it was expected to suspend natural gas transportation for 10 days. Many analysts believe that the pipeline is currently Russia's major gas pipeline against Europe, which will further exacerbate the shortage of natural gas in the European market. European officials are worried that Russia will continue to close the pipeline after the maintenance is over.

Foreign media pointed out that recently, it is an important period for European countries to storage and winter. However, Russia and Europe's "natural gas war" smoke pervassed, and Europe had to face increasingly severe risk of "qi".

Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the EU has followed the United States, imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, and accelerated its dependence on energy supply to Russia. The European Union announced in April that Russian coal was stopped in August. In June, the European Union approved some oil embargo against Russia.

As a countermeasure, Russia and the "unfriendly" countries and regions "ruble settlement orders" took effect on April 1. Since then, Russian Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. has successively announced the suspension of European countries that owe natural gas funds to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark and other European countries. Data show that at this stage, Russia's natural gas exports to the European Union is only half a year ago.

"In order to achieve 'open source', the European Union strives to find energy substitute suppliers to solve the urgency of 'gas shortage'. Qatar and other Middle East countries are more inclined to sign long -term purchase and sales contracts with the EU, but this is inconsistent with the EU's emission reduction goals, and the United States Suppliers are willing to supply natural gas spot at high prices. Therefore, the United States is currently becoming the main gas supply party of the European Union. "The deputy researcher of the European Institute of China Modern International Research Institute analyzed in an interview with the People's Daily reporter.

In March of this year, the European Union decided to buy an additional 15 billion cubic meters of liquefaction natural gas from the United States to reduce imported Russia's natural gas, and expressed his hope to replace Russia's natural gas imports of 1/3 of LNG through various sources. In the following months, the EU's imported natural gas imports from the United States have been in a record level.

Ding Chun, director of the European Issues Research Center of Fudan University, said in an interview with the Overseas Edition of the People's Daily: "The United States regards Russia and Ukraine as an important opportunity to re -win the EU and consolidate its relationship with NATO. The United States with gas mining technology hopes to become a new player in the global energy market. To this end, the United States has always hoped to insert a bar between Europe and Russia. With Europe and Russia's attitude, the United States has successfully expanded its liquefied natural gas export to the EU ","

"Russia -Ukraine's conflict continues to ferment, and the United States actively promotes, the European Union has gradually developed a relatively consistent opinion on the issue of getting rid of Russia's energy dependence, and sets specific time points. The imported pipeline natural gas is within the EU plan. "Zhang Tengjun, an associate researcher at the China Institute of International Issues.

There are multiple hidden dangers

For the European Union, to what extent can import liquefaction natural gas from the United States resolve the "qi shortage" predicament it faces?

In March, when the United States signed a LPG export agreement with the European Union, there was a long article "splashing cold water" in the US media, pointing out that this agreement is largely "symbolic", because the United States has no ability to export more in the short term more in the short term. natural gas.

The Broadcasting Corporation calculated a account, which more directly showed the embarrassing reality of the American natural gas "feeding" in Europe: Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, Russia provided about 40%of the natural gas needs of EU countries. With the data of 2020, the total natural gas consumption of the European Union was 541 billion cubic meters, and Russia's supply was about 216 billion cubic meters. The US natural gas exports to the European Union in 2021 were only about 22 billion cubic meters.

"According to the agreement reached in the United States and Europe, the United States will add 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe this year, and guarantee that Europe can get 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas by 2030. It can only be counted as the "cup of water", and Europe has to bear a higher price for this. "The tune said.

Peninsula TV pointed out that there is a congenital disadvantage to European supply to Europe. Due to geographical approaching and infrastructure, Russian natural gas can be sent to customers through pipelines and enjoy price advantages. The United States needs to cross the ocean at a high cost after liquefaction.

"At present, European countries generally lack professional ports that can import liquefaction natural gas, and the construction of related infrastructure is relatively time -consuming and it is difficult to complete in the short term. Even if the United States increases the supply of liquefied natural gas in Europe The vacancies. "Ding Chun believes that in addition to high price and limited supply, limited infrastructure conditions are also an important factor restricting the US LNG export to the EU market. The New York Times reported that a large -scale import or export liquefied natural gas may exceed US $ 1 billion, and it takes several years to plan, obtain permission and complete construction. It is because of relevant concerns that the EU countries were unable to completely disconnect Russia's energy supply.

"There are many hidden dangers in energy cooperation between the United States and Europe: First, as the EU rely on the United States in terms of energy supply, the United States may sit on the ground and increase the economic burden of European countries; Compared with pipeline transportation, sea transportation has limited capacity and is more susceptible to external factors such as weather. It is more insecure and uncertain; third, there is a variable in the future of the US future energy policy. In the case of exports, Europe can only be tied to the United States in depth. Once the United States tighten natural gas exports, the overall energy security of Europe will encounter a greater impact. "Zhang Tengjun said.

"Open Source" and "Slimation" in parallel

On July 4, the German federal government approved the construction of the first LNG receiving station in Germany to start construction at the North Sea City City. This is one of the measures in Germany to get rid of Russia's energy dependence. According to analysis, the discussion of Germany's construction of liquefied natural gas receiving stations has delayed decades, but it has been ignored. An important reason why the project has received attention is that Russia has recently reduced gas supply to Germany. At the same time, the price of natural gas has increased due to the situation in Ukraine. German energy companies and the public have increased sharply, and the government is worried that energy supply is insufficient.

German Chancellor Antrz recently warned that the problem of energy shortage may affect Germany for several years. French Minister of Finance Bruno Lermel also said a few days ago that Russia's natural gas supply to Europe is very likely, and France must prepare for it.

"At present, the EU's determination to get rid of Russia's energy dependence is firm, and it is also a long -term trend. In this context, in order to solve the" qi desert "problem at the moment, the EU will adjust the energy policy and the energy structure, energy supply and demand situation on its own energy structure, energy supply and demand situation Wait for re -layout. "Ding Chun said.

Zhang Tengjun pointed out that the United States wants to further "tied" Europe in terms of security to curb Russia, but also to increase its economic gas exports economy in economics and alleviate its own economic pressure. Therefore, the United States will continue to pressure Russia "decouples" so that it can make a profit from it. But for the European Union, strengthening energy cooperation with the United States is a double -edged sword. In the future, the United States may take natural gas as an important strategic tool. By restricting or reducing exports, it will ask Europe to make Europe more subject to the United States.

The International Energy Agency recently stated that in order to cope with the shortage of natural gas, Europe must improve energy efficiency and use renewable energy while looking for energy substitution supply, and provide asthma for high electricity prices and supply tensions.

The EU Council approved a provision in late June that the natural gas inventory of member states reached at least 80%of its gas storage capacity before this winter, and 90%before the next winter, and the natural gas can be shared between member states. The EU Council also agreed to the two policy guidelines on improving energy efficiency and renewable energy use. It is planned to increase the proportion of renewable energy in energy structure from the current 32%to 40%by 2030, while reducing energy use.

"In addition to 'open source', the current situation will also force the European Union to" thrive ', and vigorously promote energy -saving measures, including the development of solar energy and wind energy. For the EU, the most urgent thing in the short term is to survive' qi wasteland. 'Difficulty, long -term tasks are to complete green transformation and achieve energy independence. But to complete this long -term task, the European Union will also face great challenges. "Music said. (Reporter Yan Yu)

Original title: There is a calculation behind the United States to help Europe to solve the "qi shortage" (global hotspot)

"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (06th edition of July 14, 2022)

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