Hubei: Guide breeding households to rationally cope with fine regulation of pig cycles to prevent pig prices from rising and falling

Ecological pig raising, environmentally friendly (enterprise provides data chart).

A pork directly -operated store.

Modern pig farm.

Text/Picture Hubei Daily All Media Reporter Liu Sheng

Since late June, the price of pig prices has risen rapidly after a gently rising for 10 consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from June 20th to July 5th, the price of pigs in the country's main producing areas rose from 16.58 yuan per kilogram to 23.84 yuan.

On July 5, the National Development and Reform Commission clearly adopted effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. From July 5th to 12th, the price of pigs recovered slightly.

On July 12, the average price of pigs in our province was 22.68 yuan per kilogram. Pan Xiangyang, president of the Hubei Province Pig Association, believes that sow production capacity is stable and the price of pigs does not have the conditions to rise and fall.

A variety of factors are superimposed to affect the price of pig prices and rises quickly in the short term

"About 8 cents to 1 piece every day, the fastest day rose 1 piece 5." On July 7, Ms. Guan Shan Street, Wuhan, told a reporter from Hubei Daily that the retail price of pork retail in the first week of July Rating. Ms. Wang said that summer is a low season of pork. Generally speaking, the price of pork prices will not appear in summer.

The reporter's investigation found that there were many reasons.

"Last June last year, the price of pigs fell, and many farms panicked. In July, 8, and 9 months, a large number of elimination of low -production energy sows and no breeding of sows were adopted." Pan Xiangyang said that in January this year, in January this year, Although the number of pigs in the country increased by 1.5%year -on -year, it decreased by 5.5%month -on -month, a 9.8%decrease from the high in September last year.

The increase in the sale and the increase in the secondary fertilizer of the piglets reduced the launch of the pig slaughter. The monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in June, the national pig -raw porcians increased by 0.7%month -on -year, a decrease of 1.3%year -on -year, and the overall production was stable. However, since late June, as the price of pigs has risen rapidly, the number of farms (households) fences has increased, and secondary fertilizer struggles have also occurred, and the number of pig slaughter has decreased. In June, 23.31 million slaughtered pigs were slaughtered in the scale of June, a decrease of 7.9%month -on -month. Among them, the slaughter volume in late June decreased by 9.8%and 5.9%respectively. Some large enterprise data show that about 5%of the purse fat pigs were bought and walked for secondary fertilizer.

From late June to early July, it entered the rainstorm period, and a large -scale heavy rainfall appeared in the country. Piggy in some areas was not smooth. The difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs had also pushed up the purchase price of pigs across the country. In addition, the import of pork in the first half of the year has decreased significantly, and it has also supported the rise of domestic pig prices. 685,000 tons of pork imports from January to May this year, a decrease of 65.0%compared with the same period last year.

Pig production capacity is in a reasonable range and does not have the foundation of a big rise in the future

"Now the average production cost of a pig is 17 yuan per kilogram. On July 12, the average outlet price per kilogram of pigs in Hubei was 22.68 yuan. Based on the 130 kg of pigs, a pig earned a pig earning of 738 yuan and a profit margin of 33%. It is normal to consider the profit margin of the pig industry at 20%, and the current profit exceeds normal levels. "An analysis of the person in charge of a large animal husbandry breeding enterprise in Wuhan.

The person in charge of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Department of the Provincial Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department said that with the improvement of the pig production monitoring system and the implementation of the production capacity regulation plan, the market has gradually formed a key indicator of the supply of pig supply and regulating production, that is, "Long -term see sows (decide 10 decision 10 After a month, the pigs were on the market), and the piglets were seen in the middle period (the listing of the listing after 6 months), and the big pig (the listing of the listing within 2 months) in the short term ".

From the perspective of Neng Fan sow, the number of sows across the country has risen for 2 consecutive months. At the end of June, the number of sows in the country was 42 million heads, which was higher than 41 million heads. area.

From the perspective of new piglets, with the gradual elimination of sows in the early stage, the average yield rate of sows has increased significantly. In the first half of this year, the number of pigs in the country decreased slightly by 0.8%year -on -year, and the decrease was significantly lower than the canned sows, indicating that the number of pigs in the second half of the year will basically be the same as the same period last year.

From the perspective of China -Big Pig, in June, the number of pigs over May in the national scale in May will increase by 8.4%year -on -year, indicating that the pig supply in July and August will increase steadily. In addition, as the farms (households) fences are sold, "pigs do not increase meat". According to estimates, the average fence of fat pigs across the country within a month will increase the supply of pork by about 300,000 tons of pork accordingly, which will play a certain "peak" role in the later period of pig prices.

Pan Xiangyang analyzed that in mid -to -late August, due to the increase in production capacity, pig prices may be reduced. However, due to the optimization of the early production capacity, the price will not occur in the "pig cycle".

Recently, the price trend of pig raw futures also indicates that the price of pig prices in the market is limited. On July 6, the closing price of pig futures contracts showed that the main contract was 21,330 yuan in September, equivalent to 21.33 yuan/kg of pig price, 20745 yuan in November, and 21,410 yuan in the contract in January 2023.

Guide the rational production scientific rational response to the pig cycle

"Before March of last year to March this year, the price of pigs fell too much. Now it is only in the reasonable range. This price must be maintained for a period of time to make up for the loss last year. We hope not to rise so much." Tell reporters.

The relevant person in charge of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Department of the Provincial Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department said that it should neither rise or fall. Some time ago, pig prices fell sharply, and many main pigs fell into losses. By adjusting the structure of pigs, the backward production capacity gradually withdrew, and the production of pig production became more reasonable.

Academician Chen Huanchun, Huazhong Agricultural University, believes that farmers should rationally make up the column, overcome the public psychology, rationally understand the "pig cycle", and believe in official data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry. At the same time, we must also pay attention to strengthening management and reducing costs. "Pig raising is a high -tech industry. It should be more relying on technology to improve the level of pig raising cost reduction and efficiency, and judge the market according to data, rather than follow -up."

The relevant person in charge of the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that according to the requirements of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, our province will continue to strengthen monitoring and early warning, guide the scientifically arranged production of farms (households), and maintain a reasonable rhythm of production and listing. Pay close attention to key indicators such as the amount of sow storage columns. According to the monthly changes, targeted control measures should be taken in a timely manner to ensure that the pig production can be maintained in a reasonable range.

It is understood that the state will carry out the assessment of the regulation of pig production capacity, further suppress the responsibility of real pigs to stabilize the land supply, and stop the place of shutdown and demolition of pig farms (households) in the form of "sports" and "one -size -fits -all". Number of pig farms and pig production capacity. Continue to do a good job in the normalization of African swine fever, pay close attention to changes in the situation of supply and demand, and cooperate with relevant departments to do well in time to ensure stable market supply.

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