National Development and Reform Commission: The economic realization of the economy is quickly and stable; every effort to do a good job in the peak of the summer energy guarantee work
Author:21st Century Economic report Time:2022.07.14
On July 14, the National Development and Reform Commission held a media blower for the economic situation in the first half of the year. The main points were as follows:
The economic realization in June is rapid and stable, and it is expected to maintain a rise in the second half of the year
Yuan Da, director of the General Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that since this year, the internal and external environment of my country's economic development has become more complicated and severe, and the demand shrinkage, supply impact, expected weak triple pressure continue to appear, domestic epidemic rebound, Ukraine crisis, etc. The impact of the expected factors suddenly increased, and the economic operation fluctuated from late March to mid -May. With the efficient and effective advancement of the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, the prevention and control of the epidemic in key areas has achieved positive results, and the effect of stabilizing the economic policy has gradually released.
From the perspective of industrial operation, summer grains have been harvested again, and the industry and service industries have improved significantly. The total output of summer grain was 294.8 billion kilograms, an increase of 2.9 billion kg. After the short decline in the April in April, the industrial operation returned to the positive growth in May. The production continued to accelerate in June. The monthly recovery is 0.6 percentage points. The service industry has improved. In June, the service industry business activity index was 54.3%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the expected index of service industry business activities rose 5.8 percentage points to 61%.
From the perspective of market demand, investment and exports have obvious role, and residents' consumption continues to rise. From the perspective of investment advance indicators, the number of new projects in the first five months increased by 26.1%year -on -year, and the total investment of new project planned projects increased by 23.3%. Recently, the credit quota of policy banks has recently added 800 billion yuan, creating a policy and developmental financial instrument of 300 billion yuan. The project construction guarantee has increased, and the key support role of investment has been further prominent. The growth rate of foreign trade has accelerated. In June, the import and export, exports, and imports of renminbi were increased by 14.3%, 22%, and 4.8%year -on -year, respectively. The growth rates accelerated by 4.7, 6.7, and 2 percentage points from the previous month. As the epidemic was effectively controlled, residents' consumption recovered steadily, market consumption was significantly warmed during the Dragon Boat Festival, and online retail sales increased rapidly. In June, the national film box office increased significantly by 1.7 times over the previous month.
From the perspective of key areas, positive changes have continued to increase, and the economic market has remained stable. Twelve provinces that stabilize and stabilize market entities to maintain employment, the total economic amount accounts for about 2/3 of the country. At present, it is expected to maintain positive growth and growth in most provinces, such as Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan Such provinces can better play the role of support. The economic growth rate of the central and western regions is better than the overall level of the country. Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Gansu, Ningxia and other provinces have maintained a rapid growth. The province's economy, which has a greater impact on the impact of the epidemic, has improved significantly. Shanghai, Jilin and other regions are "full of energy" to accelerate the "gap" in the early stage. The electricity consumption of key companies in Shanghai is more than double the same period last year. Driven by factors such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other provinces, the economic growth rate is significantly higher than the national level.
From the perspective of economic trends, the various policies of the economy have further effective, and the economy is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year. Facing the impact of the internal and external stages and sudden factors, my country's economy has achieved stability and rebound in a short period of time, showing the strong toughness and huge potential of my country's economy, which fully shows that the good trend of the sustainable and healthy development of our country has not changed. The production factors that support high -quality development have not changed, and the long -term good fundamentals have not changed. With the continuous emergence of high -efficiency overall epidemic prevention and control and the effectiveness of economic and social development, the effect of macro policy effects is further released, and the economy is expected to continue to rise and operate in a reasonable range in the second half of the year.
In the first half of the year, CPI rose 1.7%, and the price continued to run in a reasonable range
Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that since this year, international energy and grain prices have risen sharply, and the inflation of major economies such as the United States and Europe has remained high. In recent months The above is a record high for nearly 40 years. The CPI increase in June released in the United States last night was as high as 9.1%, a new high. In my country, the prices continued to run in a reasonable range. In the first half of the year, the CPI rose by an average of 1.7%, which was significantly lower than that of other major economies, which was in sharp contrast to the international high inflation.
Wan Jinsong said that the Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to stable prices. Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has thoroughly implemented the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and continuously strengthened the construction of the supply and storage system of important commodities such as food and coal. The price is basically stable. In terms of important people's livelihood products such as food, we will make every effort to stabilize food production, strengthen regulation and stabilize pig production capacity, strengthen the connection between vegetable production and sales, and do everything possible to do a good job of stable and priced prices for important people's livelihood commodities. Since the crisis of Ukraine, my country's food prices have risen by about 1.4%, far below the US and European countries to increase by 7.5%-9.5%. In terms of energy, my country has continued to increase coal production and increase confession, improve the coal market price formation mechanism, and guide coal prices to operate in a reasonable range. Through stable coal prices to stabilize electricity prices, stable energy use costs. Basically stable. The price of electricity and gas from major economies such as the United States and Europe has risen sharply. For example, the price of electricity in the euro zone in May increased by about 30%year -on -year, and the price of gas prices rose by about 50%year -on -year. my country's industrial chain supply chain realizes overall stable operation
Zhao Zhidan, deputy director of the High Technology Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that since this year, in the face of a more complicated and severe development environment and a significant increase in risk challenges, the National Development and Reform Commission has conscientiously implemented the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Focus on dredging the card points, focus on improving the toughness of the industry, focus on the economic cycle, and promote the overall security and stability of my country's industrial chain supply chain.
The first is to maintain smooth operation in key areas. From January to May, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.3%year -on -year. Among them, the value -added value of high -tech manufacturing has increased by 9.9%year -on -year, which has exceeded the same period in 2019. The key industries have developed steadily, and computers, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries have increased by 9.9%year -on -year. The orderly and effectively promotes the supply of stable prices such as commodity, key raw materials, and core component components, and effectively prevent the systemic impact of supply and price excessive fluctuations that may bring to the industrial chain supply chain.
The second is the continuous enhancement of key link support. A group of major innovation achievements have made breakthroughs, and many fields have achieved major leaps from scratch and never available. A group of major powers have become national business cards, and head companies are selling well around the world. SMEs have accelerated their specialized new development. At the same time, a group of strategic emerging industrial clusters with its own characteristics and complementary advantages have become the development of new highlands, a new highland, a regional economic engine, and a new carrier of the security chain.
The third is to accelerate the accumulation of transformation and upgrading. High -tech industries and technological transformation have become new growth points for investment. From January to May, the investment in high -tech industries increased by 20.5%year -on -year, and the investment in the technical reform of manufacturing enterprises increased by 15.7%year -on -year, which was 14.3 and 9.5 percentage points higher than the national fixed asset investment. As the investment benefits are gradually emerging, it will inject strong impetus into the optimization of the industrial chain supply chain.
Fourth, the international competitive advantage continues to improve. In May, industrial exports rose sharply, and the value of industrial exports increased by 11.1%year -on -year. 5G network facilities and leading global leadership. Showing device shipments accounted for more than 50%of the world's, and the industry scale ranked first in the world. The output of photovoltaic components accounted for more than 3/4, and the cumulative installed capacity ranked first in the world. Internationally advanced technology levels such as transmission and transformation equipment, rail transit equipment. my country's long -board industry advantages have continued to increase, and its position in the global industrial chain supply chain has continued to rise.
Since March of this year, affected by the multi -point domestic epidemic, people in some areas have restricted flow, cross -regional logistics blocked, and poor transportation of ports, which have caused a certain impact on the stable operation of the industrial chain supply chain in some regions and key areas. In accordance with the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the National Development Reform Commission has effectively strengthened the safety and stability and coordination of the industrial chain supply chain, and further strengthened the construction of the risk monitoring system of the industrial chain supply chain supply chain, implement the risk report system, and strengthen the risk warning and disposal; Supervisory relevant local construction and enable material transfer stations, and strive to unblock the transportation channels to ensure the access of production materials; establish and dynamically adjust the "whitelist" system of key enterprises, and focus on promoting the orderly and re -production of key industrial chains and key enterprises. After the joint efforts of various departments, localities and related parties, the overall stable operation of my country's industrial chain supply chain is difficult to achieve, and the achievements are not easy, which fully demonstrates my country's institutional advantages, market advantages, and industrial system advantages.
"In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to strengthen coordination and coordination, continue to solidly promote the work chain and stable chain work together, continue to make up shortcomings, continue to break the bottleneck constraints, continue to strengthen risk prevention, promote the stability and smoothness of the supply chain of the industrial chain chain chain Provide strong support for the stable and healthy development of the economy. "Zhao Zhidan said.
Make every effort to welcoming the peak and summer energy supplies
Li Yunqing, director of the Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that the protection of energy and stable supply of energy is essential for stable growth, employment, and stable prices. Since the beginning of this year, energy supply and demand is generally stable, affected by factors such as electricity growth in key industries and rising temperatures. Since the beginning of summer, daily power generation has risen rapidly. Komem, all have a record high, and the demand for energy has rebounded significantly. The National Development and Reform Commission and relevant parties conscientiously implement the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, coordinate development and security, strengthen comprehensive coordination, strengthen dispatching and balance, pay close attention to the implementation of measures, and make every effort to fulfill their peak and summer energy supplies. The first is to continue to improve the capacity of resource protection. Organize the provinces of coal production to actively tap the potential to increase production and effectively release the potential to increase production capacity and effectively release advanced production capacity. From January to May, the national coal output was 1.810 billion tons, an increase of 10.4%year-on-year, and has maintained a high level of output since June. To further improve power generation capabilities, as of now, the national power generation capacity has reached 2.44 billion kilowatts, and the scale of non -planned suspension and contribution of coal power has fallen to the lowest level in many years, and the peak of gas power generation has increased significantly. Oil and gas increased production was significant. From January to May, the national crude oil output was 85.69 million tons, an increase of 4.1%year-on-year; natural gas output was 92.4 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.
The second is to strengthen the connection of supply and demand with multiple measures. Organize the signing and performance supervision of medium -term contracts for electric coal to ensure the stable supply and price of electric coal. The overall planning capacity arrangement, the transportation is smooth and orderly. In the first half of the year, the national railway and electric coal transportation was 690 million tons, a year -on -year increase of 9.1%. At present, the unified power plant has 170 million tons of coal, an increase of nearly 60 million tons year -on -year, and it can be used for 26 days. Enterprises formulate refined oil production and supply supply programs, organize gas supply enterprises and local regions to complete the signing of the annual and heating season contracts in various places, and lay a solid foundation for the continuous and stable supply.
The third is to accelerate the development of renewable energy. Optimize the grid scheduling, reduce the consumption of electrical coal, keep the nuclear power full of energy, and promote wind power and solar power generation. From January to May, the national hydropower power generation increased by 22.4%year-on-year, much higher than the average growth rate of 7.6%in the past 12 years. Vigorously promote the construction of the key large -scale wind power photovoltaic bases with desert, Gobi, and desert areas. At present, the first batch of projects have started more than 95 million kilowatts.
The fourth is to accelerate the construction of energy reserves. Accelerate the construction of coal storage facilities, steadily improve the capacity of coal depository, and ensure the demand for coal use during peak. Strengthen the construction of oil and gas reserve capacity, do a good job of production and operation scheduling, ensure that the supply of refined oil products is sufficient and stable, and natural gas supply and demand is stable. At present, the underground gas storage library has completed 60%of the annual gas injection plan. Vigorously promote the development and construction of water storage power stations, and encourage the development of new energy storage facilities.
Li Yunqing said that through the above measures, the foundation of energy protection has been further consolidated. Since the summer, the energy supply has been smoothly and orderly, and the demand for economic and social development can be effectively met. In the next step, the Development and Reform Commission will work together with the coordination mechanism of coal, oil and gas transportation guarantee working department, based on the current, focusing on the construction of the energy production, supply and storage system, and keeping it closely to the target of stability and price, and grasp policies and measures. Implement the landing, do a good job of supplying energy supply to ensure the safety and stability of energy supply to the summer, and ensure the demand for people's livelihood and economic and social development.
About 3%of the year's CPI expected goal can be achieved
At the meeting, Director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that in the second half of this year, affected by factors such as high international inflation, Ukraine crisis, and new crown pneumonia, the uncertainty and unstable factors faced by my country's prices are still more, but there are confidence , Confident and capable of continuing to keep prices running in a reasonable range, about 3%of CPI expectations throughout the year can be achieved.
First, we have the confidence in the second half of the year. my country's goods and service market supply capacity is generally abundant, high -quality coal production capacity continues to be released, and grain production has achieved "eighteen consecutive Feng". This year's summer collection of wheat has a high output and good quality. Increased, the production of cattle, sheep poultry eggs and vegetables and fruits is normal, and the supply is sufficient. It has a solid material foundation for maintaining stable prices.
Second, we have confidence in the second half of the year. In recent years, after the practice of responding to the supplies of the essential supplies of life and the great fluctuation of international commodity prices, the system of maintaining a stable price work system has gradually improved, the plan is gradually matured, the regulation methods are more abundant, the departments and regions are between departments and regions The coordination and cooperation efficiency has been further improved, and the emergency regulation capacity is significantly enhanced.
Third, we have the ability to do a good job of stabilizing prices in the second half of the year.It will continue to closely track the level of total price and the price trend of important commodities, continue to strengthen market regulation, and do a good job in the implementation of various policies and measures for stability and stability.Stabilize the production of grain, further compact the "vegetable basket" mayor's responsibility system, ensure that the supply of important people's livelihood goods and the basically stable price, and timely put in time to put the central pork reserves in time, guide the local linkage to the reserves, and give full play to the stable price of pork reserves.The role of stable price.Taking coal as the "anchor" continues to do a good job of energy guarantee and stable prices. By improving measures such as coal production and storage and sales systems, and strengthening market expectations management, coal prices are guided to operate in a reasonable range.At the same time, guide localities to conscientiously implement the linkage mechanism of price subsidies, timely issue temporary subsidies in full and timely, effectively ensure the basic lives of people in the difficulties, and firmly live in the bottom line of the people.(21 Comprehensive CCTV)
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