Gold Company has been sold: Gold prices have a new low "buying gold to rise" logic for nearly 10 months

Economic Observation Network reporter Chen Shan's commodity market has recently showed a rapid decline, and precious metals have also encountered large -scale selling.

Since July, international gold has broken through 1,800, 1750 US dollars, etc., and has launched a challenge to $ 1700/ounce, which has fallen around for continuously; domestic gold prices have also fallen by 20 yuan/gram to 380 yuan/gram.

The reporter learned from the teller of a Zhou Dafang store in Shanghai that the decline in gold prices has also attracted the attention of citizens, and the thought of buying gold to rise began to spare. On July 13, the gold investment product marked by the store was 440 yuan/gram, down 17 yuan/gram from the beginning of the month, and fell more than 30 yuan per gram from early March. "Recently, the price of gold has indeed fallen a lot, and the number of people who come to consult is significantly increased, but at present, everyone is still watching and seeing it."

The reporter learned from a number of interviewees that the US dollar's continued strengthening and the expected expectations of the Federal Reserve's continued radical interest rate hikes have a significant and continuous suppression of precious metal prices. But from the current point of view, the industry has different views on the trend of gold in the later period of gold.

Precious metal encountered large -scale selling

On July 13, the US dollar index station was at the 108 integer mark, a new high level since 2002. The international gold price was overturned to $ 1706/ounce, the lowest price since September 2021.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has gone out of the "inverted V" market. In the first quarter of 2022, with the brewing and outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the price of COMEX gold at the time of the year was near the front line of $ 2080. The main logic of the market was the concerns of inflation and risk aversion. However, as the Fed officially started interest rate hikes in March, in May and June

Further increase the interest rate hike, the US dollar index entered a new round of rise, and quickly broke through the 100 integer passage. The US dollar strengthening has continued to rise with the US debt yields, thereby continuously suppressing gold prices. During this period, COMEX's gold price oscillations have been weakened, and so far, the cumulative decline has exceeded 16%.

During the decline in gold prices, the market seemed to be gradually weakening. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of July 5th, COMEX Gold Non -Commercial Net holding has fallen to 14,5660, a record low in recent years. In addition, from the perspective of the Golden ETF position, as of July 12, the SPDR gold ETF positions decreased by 85.21 tons from the high point to 1021.53 tons, the lowest level since March.

Not only gold, silver, platinum, and golden metals have recently fallen to a greater extent. COMEX silver has fallen to $ 18.6/ounce a few days ago, and fell more than 30%from the high position of US $ 27.5/ounce in early March; the platinum that was delivered in October also fell from a high level of 31%in the early stage; The US dollar/ounce has a cumulative decrease of 48%compared with the high point during the year.

Is it here?

The reporter noticed that the decline in gold prices also gave birth to some demand for purchase: "While the price of gold is cheap, I quickly come to buy a little." "Recently, the price of gold has fallen a lot, ready to buy some asset allocation." The logic of rising began to appear. At this point, have you been doing more opportunities?

On the evening of July 13, the June CPI announced by the United States reached 9.1%year -on -year, and the expected value of the overshide market was 8.8%. It continued to reach a new high for more than 40 years. The price of gold is down quickly;

Compared with the high level in early March, the international gold price has fallen by nearly 20%in recent months, and the market has differentiated views on the trend of the late gold.

Looking forward to the future trend of gold prices, Dapeng, Director of Everbright Futures Research Director, analyzed to reporters that in July, raising interest rates or continued to show the trend of "losing the ground", and the rhythm of interest rate hikes also slowed down. This is not a bad thing for gold. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve's July interesting meeting, the probability of a rebound may be rebounded; however, from the perspective of the mid -term perspective, the inflation will not show a significant profile to gold. Looking at the price of gold is still a trend of rebound.

FXSTREET chief analyst, Valeria Bednarik's latest article, analyzes the prospects of gold prices. BEDNARIK pointed out that the US dollar remains strong as the concerns about economic recession and US inflation data are about to be released. Gold still has room to test at a low of 1676.73 US dollars/ounce in 2021.

However, some institutions are also optimistic about the performance of the gold market outlook.

Following the previously adjusted the golden target price to $ 2,500/ounce, Goldman Sachs Mikhail Sprogis sang more gold again. In its latest report, the slowdown of inflation can turn the market focus from continuous tightening to risk of decline. This transformation will weaken the US dollar and continuously rising interest rates to the downlink pressure brought by gold prices. If funds appear "defensive conversion" from the stock market to the bond market, gold will "shine again".

Wang Xiang, manager of Boshi Fund Gold ETF Fund, analyzed to reporters that in the context of the turbulence of commodities, the haze of recession, and the Federal Reserve's adherence to rapid interest rate hikes, gold investors, including global gold ETFs and major futures markets, have obviously appearedWithdrawal, COMEX Gold Futures Fund has a net bulls below 10%of history. In history, when the net bulls of gold futures are lower than the sub -level, the gold market can gain an average of 6.67%in the next six months.76%.If it is the dimension of the next year, the average income can increase significantly to 18.2%, and the winning rate will reach an amazing 88%.The reason behind this is mainly due to the extremely pessimistic market.

Wang Xiang said, "It is expected that the gold market will still show a low trend in the short term. After the mood view is fully fermented, and the harm of the interest rate hike to the overall damage to the economy is further significant, with the reversal of the long -end spread and even the inverted inversion, gold gold, goldAssets can really take advantage of the situation, flying against the wind. "

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