There are five highlights of monetary policy in the second half of the year

Yan Yue

How does the monetary policy continue to make power in the second half of the year? Combined with the introduction of the relevant person in charge of the central bank's relevant departments on July 13, the author believes that under the premise of maintaining reasonable liquidity in the second half of the year, at least five aspects of monetary policy need to focus on attention.

First, structural monetary policy tools continue to land and expand.

Since last year, the use of structural tools has become a major highlight of monetary policy. After full pilot, structural policy is proven to be an effective means to achieve precise drip irrigation. As a result, relevant policy tools began to actively do "adding methods", from increasing the support of inclusive micro -loan to support for coal clean and efficient utilization, scientific and technological innovation, inclusive pensions, transportation and logistics special reinsurances, and carbon emission reduction support tools. Sexual policy tools have become a major main force for helping the implementation of stable monetary policies.

In the second half of this year, the use of structural monetary policy tools is still a lot of highlights, and it can be paid attention to whether there will be new tools.

The second is that policy and development financial instruments will play a prying role.

As a phased measure, the funds of the tool are mainly invested in the five major infrastructure key areas, major scientific and technological innovation and other areas, as well as other projects that can be invested by special bonds of local governments to leverage other funds to follow up quickly and jointly help form the physical workload of the project. A few days ago, the central bank supported the establishment of financial instruments for the National Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank, with a total scale of 300 billion yuan.

After this tool gradually explores a set of experience, it will expand the scale of funds, the field of use, or even attract other financial institutions to participate, which is the highlight of the second half of the year and even the future.

The third is to implement the opportunity to reduce standards and reduce interest rates (cost reduction).

At present, the role of a package of policy measures on the economy has begun to appear, but the policy tone of "implementing a good monetary policy" will not change. The important one is to promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises.

In June, commercial banks absorbing regular deposit interest rates were 2.5%, which was 16 basis points lower than the same period last year. In the same period, the loan interest rate of new enterprises was 4.16%, which was 34 basis points lower than the same period last year. It can be seen that the role of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates can be effectively transmitted to the loan market quotation interest rate, thereby achieving a steady decline in the comprehensive financing cost of the enterprise.

The marketization of interest rates has given commercial banks more autonomy, but they need sufficient currency supply, and monetary policy also needs to continue to support economic recovery from the total amount. From the experience of the first half of the year, the effectiveness of the multiplication of the currency supply brought about by the RRR cut is quite considerable, and the combination of the decline in the reduction and the decline in loan interest rates has erupted huge energy. In the second half of the year, there is still some room for reduction and interest rate cuts, but when it is enabled and how to enable it, it depends on the needs of stabilizing the economic market.

Fourth, the growth of total credit has remained stable.

In June, RMB loans increased by 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 686.7 billion yuan year -on -year.

From the perspective of the loan structure in June, with the effectiveness of policy measures, the increase in short loans of corporate loans and the increase in bills have increased significantly. Essence

In the second quarter of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Commission, "the stability of the growth of total credit growth" was required. In 2021, a new RMB loan was increased by 1.995 trillion yuan, an increase of 315 billion yuan year -on -year. In the first half of this year, loans increased by 13.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 919.2 billion yuan year -on -year. According to the requirements, the scale of credit investment and social financing in the second half of the year will maintain a steady growth trend. This leads to a highlight of new RMB loans this year: whether it can exceed 20 trillion yuan.

Fifth, planning ahead and stabilizing prices and preventing inflation.

In June, CPI rose 2.5%year -on -year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. With the stability of the domestic economy, the needs of all walks of life will increase. Therefore, the central bank must make a plan to respond to price fluctuations in the second half of the year, including prevention of input inflation. At the same time, various functional departments must also ensure that the industrial chain and supply chain are unblocked to maximize the price fluctuations caused by poor conduction.

Finally, when the implementation of a policies and measures to stabilize the economy and the economy shows a significant recovery momentum, the monetary policy is necessary to continue to maintain a certain strength in the second half of the year, so that the economy is more stable and more firm.

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