China's foreign trade went out of the "V" in the first half of the year. Experts: Although it is under pressure

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] On July 13th, the General Administration of Customs announced the "transcript" of foreign trade in the first half of this year. In the first half of the year, the total value of China's cargo trade import and export value increased by 9.4%year -on -year, of which the exports increased by 13.2%, and imports were 4.8%of the imports. increase. In June, the total value of import and export value was as high as 14.3%year -on -year, a new high since this year. In the current bleak situation of the global economy, China's foreign trade has maintained such a high growth, which is unexpected, highlighting the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing and an indispensable position in the global industrial chain. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of the epidemic, after experiencing the downturn in April, the import and export of my country's foreign trade returned to the two -digit high growth range, and the "V" type reversal curve came out of it, and the toughness appeared. Although China's foreign trade situation is also under pressure in the second half of the year under the turbulence of the global economic situation, many experts said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that my country's foreign trade imports and exports have achieved a year -on -year positive growth for eight consecutive quarters. Although the pressure is under pressure But it is very tough.

On the 13th, a container of the Foreign Trade Container Wharf, Shandong Qingdao Port, is loading and unloading containers. (IC Photo)

China's foreign trade "get out of the trough"

On July 13, Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and Director of Statistics, introduced imports and exports in the first half of 2022 at the press conference of the National New Office. In the first half of this year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports increased steadily, and the scale of foreign trade reached 1.98 trillion yuan, which contributed to stabilizing the macroeconomic market.

Data from the General Administration of Customs show that my country's foreign trade growth rates have risen significantly in May and June. In May, the import and export of foreign trade in my country increased by 9.6%year -on -year (pricing at RMB, the same below), and the growth rate accelerated by 9.4 percentage points compared with April, and the export growth rate was 15.3%. The speed reaches 22%. China's foreign trade imports and exports have returned to dual digits. Just in April, China's foreign trade growth was only 0.1%, which was close to zero growth. However, in May and June, it quickly reversed the trend of decline in the growth rate in April. China's foreign trade ushered in the outbreak again.

Why can Chinese foreign trade realize the "V" reversal? China ’s rapid control of the epidemic is considered to be the main reason. Li Kuiwen said that since the beginning of this year, although the new crown pneumonia and the Ukraine crisis have led to an increase in external environmental risks, in general, the global economy still shows a recovery trend, and the international market demand has remained stable. He said that since the beginning of this year, local epidemic conditions have experienced a local epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Northeast and other places, and the import and export of related areas have fallen, but it is worthy of the rapid overcoming the impact of the epidemic. Restoring is better, which has effectively maintained the basic market for the steady growth of foreign trade in the country.

Many experts believe that, as the "pillar of the pillar" of China's foreign trade, the re -production of foreign trade towns such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has been promoted in an orderly manner, which has resumed China's foreign trade. Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the Global Times reporter that in the case of high export base last year, China's export growth rate still maintained a high operation in June this year. The main reason was that the control of the epidemic and the centralized development of foreign trade policies Force, foreign trade port logistics further opened up, and the preliminary epidemic affected export orders that affect the backlog of exports. According to customs statistics, the three provinces and one city in the three provinces of the Yangtze River Delta import and exported 1.39 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 14.9%year -on -year, and the contribution rate to the growth of national foreign trade was nearly 40%.

"Made in China" is indispensable

Many international media have shocked many international media about the rapid "reversal" of China's foreign trade import and export. "With the acceleration of exports, China's trade surplus has soared to a record level." The Associated Press said that after controlling the unblocking of the epidemic and cargo transportation channels, China's export growth has accelerated. It is reported that the world's demand for Chinese goods is still strong. Although China and the United States have trade disputes, China ’s exports to the United States have increased by 19.3%year -on -year to $ 56 billion. China’ s trade surplus in the United States has expanded 26%over a year ago to $ 41.4 billion. China's exports to the EU 27 countries increased by 17.1%to $ 50.5 billion. China ’s trade surplus to Europe has expanded by 65%to $ 25.4 billion.

Experts believe that the competitiveness of "Made in China" and an indispensable position in the global industrial chain are an important reason why China's foreign trade can quickly recover. Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that in the case of re -production and re -production in China, the domestic supply capacity recovered, China in June to major trading partners such as the European Union, ASEAN, the United States, and BRICS countries in June The growth rate of exports rose, with a year -on -year increase of 17.1%, 29.0%, 19.3%, and 27.9%. Among them, the export of electromechanical products that best reflects the "Made in China" capacity increased by 12.5%year -on -year, higher than 8.5 percentage points last month, which is the main driving force for the rise of export growth.

There is still strong toughness in the second half of the year

Looking forward to the second half of the year, although China's foreign trade exports are under pressure under the context of the global economic recovery of uncertainty. However, most experts believe that although China's exports are under pressure, they are very tough. The Associated Press said that the rapid growth of China's foreign trade import and export has shown that the Chinese economy has begun to recover. The survey shows that as manufacturing and service activities have accelerated, this trend may continue. S & P global market economist Bisvas said that if this trend continues, "then the prospect of China's import and export in the second half of 2022 will be stronger." Wang Qing told the Global Times reporter that in order to fight high inflation, the current major overseas central banks such as the Federal Reserve are tightening monetary policies, superimposed on the impact of the international geopolitical crisis, and the global economy has been shrouded in the shadow of decline in the second half of the year. This will inevitably have a certain impact on my country's export demand. He believes that in the prospect of a significant deceleration of the global economy, my country's export growth rate will show a fluctuation trend as a whole in the second half of the year.

Foreign trade is one of the three -driving carriages that drive economic growth. Last year, the import and export of goods and services drove China's GDP to increase by 1.7 percentage points, and the contribution rate to GDP reached 20.9%. Foreign trade enterprises are related to 180 million employment population. Wu Chaoming told the Global Times reporter that China's export growth is obviously tough, which will help stabilize market entities and employment, and also help the economic operation of the year, especially the second half of the year, in a reasonable range.

[Global Times reporter Ni Hao Global Times special reporter Xiao Da Qingsu Tao Short House Zhang Jing Chenkang]

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