At the end of June, the price of pigs in early July: Agricultural and Rural Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Being able to produce sow can be sufficient in the later stages, not to have the basic conditions for continuous increases

On July 13, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on pig production in Cangzhou City, Hebei Province to analyze the current situation of pig production, and study the key work of pigs in the second half of the year.

The meeting emphasized that all localities should conscientiously implement pig -stabilized production insurance for the responsible requirements of the province and the "vegetable basket" mayor's responsibility system, take strong and effective measures to do a good job of pig production to ensure the stable supply of the pork market.

The meeting believes that the current situation of pig pigs is generally stable and good, and the amount of pigs in the pigs remains stable. The production capacity of sow can be in a normal and reasonable area. Affected by factors such as sales and secondary fertilizers of some breeding farms, the prices of pigs increased significantly at the end of June and early July, and the recent shocks have stabilized. Due to the sufficient production of sow pigs, there is no basic condition for continuous rise in the later period.

Recently, the price of pig pigs has fallen slightly after the peak

Since April this year, pork prices have continued to rise.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural on July 12, the "200 Index 200 Index of Agricultural Products Wholesale Price" on July 12 was 121.00, an increase of 0.62 points from the previous day, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 121.71, an increase of 0.73 from the previous day the day before the day before the day before the day before the day. point. As of 14:00 on the 12th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 30.39 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.4%from the previous day.

The average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities reached the recent high point in early July

Earlier, on July 4, the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting of the pig market guarantee price supply stabilization, and severely warned major pig farmers companies to accumulate strange and raised prices, and it was not allowed to pass the price increase. Measures to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

Xia Chenfeng, an analyst at the Agricultural Credit Connected Pig Industry, said in an interview with a reporter from the "Daily Economic News" that the price of pork has risen since April, mainly due to the decline in the production capacity of the nationwide sows from the third quarter of 2021, Bringing the trend of pork supply decreased.

"In May, the pig's embargo policy in Guangdong became a direct fuse of the rapid rise of pig prices. At that time, Guangdong led the national pig price to rise rapidly. After that, the entire industry was bullish in the back market, and there was a very obvious psychological psychology. "

Xia Chenfeng said that in the past period, secondary fertilizer education has gradually become common. Due to the bullish market outlook, farmers turn the pigs that are about to go out into sow to breed to produce. Because it is not a pig, the production and sales will be relatively low, but when the price of pigs is good, the cost is cheaper than the binary pig. The production cycle is short. Once such a situation increases, the supply of pork will decline in a short period of time.

Xia Chenfeng said that after the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting of the pig market guarantee price -stabilities, the price of pigs did be at the point and fell slightly. According to monitoring, the price of pigs in the country reached the highest point of more than 24 yuan/kg on July 5th, and then began to be reduced to about 22 yuan/per kilogram. In recent days, it has fluctuated around 23 yuan in recent days.

Xia Chenfeng believes that the maintenance of the conference is the most important thing to make the farmers in the market more rational, and they can look back to reflect on what state of the current supply and demand pattern. "According to our understanding, there are indeed some large -scale companies' outspoken volume increased in a short time, but at present, in terms of retail investors, some secondary fattening phenomena still have no fundamental change."

It is expected that the profit of the breeding end in the third and fourth quarters is still guaranteed

At the pig production symposium held on the 13th, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs judged that due to sufficient production of sow pork, it did not have the basic conditions for continued significantly rising in the later period.

In this regard, Xia Chenfeng believes that from the perspective of the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the cumulative production capacity decreases of sow boars is 8.3%. The efficient dual sow has completed the elimination and replacement of the inefficient ternary sow, so the production efficiency of the entire industry should be improved, and the supply of pigs in the future is still guaranteed. "

Xia Chenfeng said that since June, the entire farm has entered a profit. "According to the current price, the entire industry, including pig companies with relatively high production costs, has actually entered a profit for a month." She said that according to calculations The average profit of professional fattening) is basically 700 ~ 900 yuan/head. Enterprises with particularly good breeding benefits can even reach 1,000 yuan/head profit.

According to Xia Chenfeng, the reduction of sows has come to an end, and it has begun to grow from negative to positive. It is expected that after the second quarter of next year, the entire supply should be guaranteed. In the third and fourth quarters of this year, the price of the entire pig is expected to stay in a better position, that is, the profit of the breeding end will be better.

However, Xia Chenfeng also mentioned that in a short period of time, it is necessary to pay attention to the short -term speculative behavior of farmers, that is, the secondary fattening behavior, which will cause the tension of recent pig supply. "But in the long run, the phenomenon of secondary fertilizers, including the pressure bar, will not continue for a long time. In the future, it will be put into the market, which means that the short -term will cause a pig shortage, but in the middle and long term, it will increase the pigs And the supply of pork. "

The reporter noticed that this meeting emphasized that we must adhere to the word "stability", stabilize policies, stabilize expectations, stabilize production, and supply stability.Strengthen the construction of monitoring and early warning capabilities and improve the quality of monitoring data.Stable and implementing long -term basic policies such as finance, land, and environmental protection to prevent the policy from "turning cakes".Implement the regulation of pig production capacity to keep the pig production capacity continued to stabilize in a reasonable range.Daily Economic News

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