The US June CPI rose 9.1%year -on -year, and the IMF lowered the expectations of US economic growth again.

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Li Yinong Shanghai report

The continuous high fever of inflation has increased the risk of slowing economic growth in the United States. According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor on July 13, local time, the US June CPI rose 9.1%year -on -year in June, the largest increase since November 1981, higher than 8.6%and 8.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) once again lowered the prediction of economic growth in the United States this year and next year, and raised its unemployment rate forecast to 2025. At the same time "".

Specifically, the IMF Executive Committee has lowered the US GDP growth forecast in 2022 from the previous 2.9%to 2.3%on the grounds of inflation risk, and the economic growth forecast of 2023 was reduced from 1.7%to 1%; And 2025 GDP growth expectations. The IMF also predicts that the unemployment rate this year will reach 3.7%, higher than the previous expected 3.2%, and the unemployment rate in 2024 and 2025 will exceed 5%.

In a high -inflation environment, the Fed's radical currency tightening stance may further deteriorate the prospects of US economic growth.

Wang Xinjie, the chief investment strategyist of Standard Chartered China Wealth Management Department, said at the 2122 Global Market Outlook on July 13th to report to reporters such as the 21st Century Business Herald at the 21st Century Media. The basis point to 3.25%makes interest rates exceeding the "neutral" level of the Federal Reserve 2.5%. As the Fed's policy becomes restricted, the risk of US economic recession in the next 6-12 months will rise significantly.

UBS Asset Management also stated in the 2022 Panorama Outlook Report "Inflation -Welcome Challenge" recently released that global growth panic will be the economic factors that are most likely to be priced by market participants in the second half of 2022. Barry Gill, director of UBS asset management investment, pointed out that the main question that investors are trying to answer are how long the inflation pressure will last and whether the enthusiasm of the central bank's (against inflation) will accidentally fall into a recession.

The haze of the lingering decline

The IMF executive director stated in a statement that the "priority of policy priority must quickly slow down inflation pressure without triggering economic recession." However, they also pointed out that problems such as Russia and Ukraine's conflict, repeated new crown epidemic and supply chain bottlenecks have made it "becoming more and more challenging for the United States."

IMF executive directors reminded that adjusting the response measures for inflation will bring greater risks, which is important. Any wrong judgment on policy portfolios will make huge costs in the United States and have a negative overflowing effect on the global economy.

It is worth noting that according to the previously released data, the US GDP in the first quarter of GDP was recorded-1.6%at an annual rate of-1.6%, which has shrunk; and according to economic activities such as the Egland Federal Reserve GDPNOW The economic growth data in the United States in the second quarter is likely to occur again. If the negative value occurs for two consecutive quarters, theoretically, the US economy will fall into a technological decline.

The risk of the US economy falling into the risk of recession? Wang Xinjie pointed out that if the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter has reappeared, it may actually mean that the United States is on the way to decline. Especially with the turn of the Fed's monetary policy, there is a certain degree of recession risk in the second half of the year.

Wang Xinjie added that if the US economy enters the recession, from historical experience, the cycle of this round of decline may be about 12 to 18 months, but the range of this round may not be too deep.

UBS pointed out in the "Outlook Report" that multiple factors have maintained global inflation, which increases the risk of slowing global economic growth. Investors have continuously re -evaluated the possible interest rate hikes and rhythm of the central bank, as well as the possible effects of tightening on inflation and economic activities, so that the overall macroeconomic uncertainty increased. However, UBS believes that "soft landing" is still possible.

Andrew Hollenhorsst, chief economist of Citi Group, pointed out that although the previously strong June non -agricultural report "strongly refuted the view of the US economy falling into a decline or is about to decline", from the current situation, the Fed slowly slows the economy to slow the economy in order Inhibiting inflation, "greatly increased the risk of economic recession in 2023." Hollenhorsst added that "the extremely intense employment market may make soft landing more difficult."

Vanguard U.S. Treasury director John Madziyire said that at the time of economic recession, there is still uncertainty and differences, but it is certain that the market and consumer emotions have deteriorated.

Inflation may slow down slowly

Even if the risk of the US economy falling into the market is worried, economists and analysts generally believe that in the short term, the Fed will not change the eagle position and fight against inflation.

Wang Xinjie told reporters that GDP is just a level from considerations in various aspects. Of course, the Fed's monetary policy will take into account the economic growth of the United States, but regardless of whether the data in the second quarter is positive or negative, the main observation goals of the Fed now are inflation and employment markets. Therefore, if GDP shrinks again in the second quarter, the confidence in the capital market will have a certain degree of impact, but this may not be the main reference indicator of the Fed in monetary policy. How will the inflation situation develop in the United States under the Federal Reserve Eagle's interest rate hike? Is there a chance to step down?

In this regard, Wang Xinjie pointed out that the United States' inflation has become particularly nervous since last year, especially in the second half of the year. Entering 2022, uncertain factors such as geopolitics have led to rising energy and food prices, which further pushed the overall inflation trend. At present, it may not be possible to determine whether inflation has been on, and it may take 2 to 3 months to make further judgments in the third quarter. Judging from the current situation, Wang Xinjie expects that the average inflation in the second half of the year may fall to about 6%; in 2023, it may fall to 4%. But whether inflation is about to be seen in the short term, more data support is needed.

Wang Xinjie analyzed that the impact of oil prices was not so direct for the inflation situation in the United States. The structural inflation in the United States is mainly driven by higher salary levels and housing costs. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes cannot suppress or reverse the supply side inflation driven by oil prices and industrial chains, but can inhibit the above -mentioned inflation promoted by demand. Therefore, by increasing interest rates to lower the operation of economic activities, it is actually the opportunity to weaken the salary-spiral-type push-inflation upward ways by inhibiting the growth of wage. Looking forward, in the case of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes and the decline in the growth rate of macroeconomics, Wang Xinjie believes that inflation should be controlled to a certain extent, but it will not be a rapid downward.

Regarding the Fed's follow -up rate of interest rate hikes, Wang Xinjie believes that 75 basis points will still be raised in July. However, with entering the second half of the year, the Fed's rate hike speed may slow down, especially if the job market has changed. It is expected that in the second half of the year, including 75 basis points that have not been realized in July, there will be a total of 150 basis interest rate hikes. However, after July, it may be 50 and 25 basis points, or the rate hikes of 25 basis points at 3 times. The specific situation will still be adjusted according to the overall macro situation.

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