"Broken supply" is coming?More than 50 real estate in 15 provinces across the country issued a statement of suspension, involving a mortgage of about 2 trillion yuan

13.07.2022

Number of this text: 3673, about 6 minutes old reading time

Introduction: Insufficient statistics disclosed by the organization show that more than 50 real estate in 15 provinces including Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi have issued a public statement of "stop supply".

Author | First Finance Sun Mengfan Zheng Na

One stone stirred thousands of waves. In the past two days, some owners of rotten tail buildings unilaterally announced that they would stop repaying the mortgage loan of commercial housing, which caused a "tide of compulsory suspension". Insufficient statistics disclosed by institutions show that more than 50 real estate in 15 provinces including Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi have issued public statements. Also mortgage loans, risks and losses shall be shared by all parties.

In these real estate, some have been postponed for many years, and some of the rotten tail buildings, while others have not yet been delivered, but because of the tight housing funds, it is difficult to resume work. Among them, many disconnected projects have occurred mainly in the real estate enterprise projects that have defaulted, including Evergrande, Xinli, Shimao and other companies.

According to the estimation of Guangfa Securities research, the current area of ​​the suspension of real estate enterprises accounted for about 20%, and the proportion of the total production capacity of the industry in the default housing enterprises accounted for about 25%. The total amount is about 500 million square meters.

From the perspective of potentially affected bank assets, according to the statistics of Guangfa Securities, if 500 million square meters of stop work, according to the price of 1W/square meter asset, the corresponding asset value is 5 trillion yuan. 2 trillion mortgage loans.

Generally speaking, if more real estate is in a state of stop work and rotten, it will cause the owner to stop supply on a large area, and the impact on real estate will be extremely negative. "Seeing that the market has just improved a little, the tide of disconnection caused by the large -scale rotten tail may once again damage the fragile market confidence." A real estate practitioner expressed great concern about First Financial.

Guangfa Securities also believes that disconnection is a situation that is more confident in asset price confidence than the decline in housing prices.

Since the real estate enterprises have been in danger in dangers last year, stoppayments have increased in many cities, and local governments and housing companies have also raised "insurance delivery" to the most important position. "For us, insurance delivery is definitely a top priority, which also directly affects sales reputation." Some insiders from insurance housing companies revealed that they will seek to maximize the expiration debt exhibition period and use limited funds for project construction for project construction deliver.

However, in the current state of poor sales in the real estate industry, it is not easy to fully resume work and re -production. An industry insider revealed that the main problem that caused the current suspension was that the project sales funds were misappropriated. The subsequent construction funds could not keep up. The supplier could not get the money. But progress is slow.

Pre -sale funds misappropriation leads to insufficient development funds

As early as the end of last year, many real estate industry people paid attention to the increasingly common suspension of work in the real estate industry. According to Ke Rui reports, as of the end of 2021, in its 24 key monitoring cities, the total construction surface of the projects that had not been delivered was as high as 24.68 million square meters, of which Zhengzhou, Changsha, Chongqing, Wuhan and other cities had a greater risk of delivery risks in urban projects. Essence

Entering 2022, as some projects entered the agreed delivery period, but there was no sign of resumption of work, many owners were anxious. On June 30, 2022, the owners of Zhengzhou Hanhai Si Niancheng did not accept the house on a regular basis, and also found that the project supervision account was removed 2.6 billion yuan. So, like many other real estate owners, they wrote a "collective loan notification".

From a legal level, it is not a good thing to stop loan. If the house purchase contract with the developer has not been lifted, the credit reporting may be affected, and it may be sued to the court and even being forced to execute by the court. The reason why the risk of damage to credit reporting is to stop loan, in fact, many owners have discovered that project funds have been misappropriated and banks have issued mortgage loans in violation of regulations. They dare to challenge the bank.

"Under normal circumstances, if you have money on the regulatory account, you will not rot." When talking about the rotten tail storms in the past two days, a person in Henan said to the First Financial.

Most of the real estate residential development projects in my country implement the pre -sale system. In order to prevent the real estate from rotting, the pre -sale fund supervision system for commercial housing is born, that is, government departments shall implement third -party supervision with banks. In terms of specific regulatory policies, there are autonomy in various places.

In actual operation, it is not uncommon for funds to be misappropriated and abused. A North China real estate enterprise told reporters that at this level of real estate companies, there is indeed a situation of misappropriation of projects for the project, and invests in the group's debt repayment or other company business activities.

For example, a project has a good fundamentals and a large number of sales money, and other projects lack funds and the progress of the project is slow, and the funding for funds between projects is existing. Or, when housing companies are facing debt, including the debt of the group, city and project level, and a project is only delivered in one year, and there is funds on the account, then the funds may be misappropriated to repay the company's debt to repay the company's debt Essence

Another person in China also said that many suspension projects have been sold earlier. At that time, the supervision of the pre -sale funds account was not strict. superior. "For example, after the sales of a project in 2020, enterprises may use money for other project construction or for new land acquisition, which is common operations." The distribution and flow intensity are greatly reduced, but for the projects that have been sold at that time, it is no longer a positive cash flow, and it cannot be sold to support construction with other projects. The situation of project shutdown.

The above -mentioned North China real estate enterprises also said that in this wave of enterprises, after some housing enterprises were tight, they began to perform the debt period. There was no preliminary self -rescue actions such as assets and other series of chain reactions, including rating agencies to reduce Rating, housing companies' overseas debt trigger acceleration repayment clauses, etc. After a series of self -rescue actions, some companies still face large cash gaps. When repaying some debt, there will be a situation of calling project funds.

It is worth noting that since the second half of 2021, the local government's supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing has gone through the process of "tightening-relaxation-tightening". After July this year, problems such as stopping work and extension of new commercial housing projects in many places have gradually been exposed. The transfer of pre -sale funds has gradually been exposed. Chengdu, Hangzhou, Shanxi, and Shenzhen have reinforced the supervision of pre -sale funds.

On July 1, Chengdu announced the implementation of the "Implementation Rules for the Supervision Measures for the Pre -sale of commercial housing in Chengdu", which clarified the division of supervision responsibilities. Relevant policies and measures, establish, maintain and manage the unified pre -sale supervision service platform in the city, urge the inspection of the implementation of pre -sale supervision of commercial housing, and supervise and manage the implementation of the main body of the pre -sale supervision.

Xizheng Capital believes that after the emergence of "stop loan", the probability of pre -sale funds in various cities in the future will also return to the track of strict supervision, and there is no room for relaxation at the policy level.

The "insurance delivery" power of real estate companies does not follow the heart

With the more standardized supervision of pre -sale funds, how to deal with "insurance delivery" has become the primary task of current housing companies.

The root cause of delivery and difficulty in re -work lies in "insufficient money." Some people in North China said that about half of the current company's overall funds are settled in the pre -sale fund supervision account. The lack of hematopoietic capacity and lack of internal hematopoietic capacity from the outside of the outside world and the lack of the low internal hematopoietic ability of the property market have caused its capital to be extremely tight. It is an important reason for the frequent problems of the suspension of the real estate enterprise and the difficulties of resumption of work.

Another Chinese housing company also said that under the current industry situation, the development of developers can no longer promote new financing, sales have further affected cash flow, and developers can use funds very limited. "When facing a huge debt expiration or interest payment, many developers are facing a choice. Whether it is repayment of debt repayment, or it is used to start construction insurance delivery."

"When the funds in their hands can only support the construction and construction of 50 projects, the developer will screen the 100 projects of the players, and the priority construction can generate a positive cash flow project," said an inside of an insurance housing company. After returning, we can support the construction of another 50 projects.

At the same time, the supervision intensity of each city is different. Projects in some cities have cash flow back, which can be used for dialing, but it has become limited as a whole. In addition, another way that housing companies can use is to sell assets to supplement cash flow.

A northern real estate company said that the industry environment has changed a little. It was difficult to talk about the debt exhibition during the debt, and now investors will take more seriously to see the guarantee clause given by the enterprise, and the interview period is more smooth than before. If the debt can "change space in time", companies will also have more resources to invest in stable operations and guarantee delivery. "Now everyone is aware of this problem. It is necessary to put the survival and insurance delivery in the primary position, stabilize the company's operation without harming the rights buyer's rights."

A Henan real estate company said that many shutdowns are not available for the total contract, and in the final analysis, it is still the problem of funding. To this end, in addition to negotiating with the general contracting unit, other methods are carried out around the "open source", increasing financing, sale of equity, revitalizing assets, and accelerated removal payment. "Only by keeping the company's operation and survival can we gradually deliver the project."

It is worth noting that the current project construction requirements for the construction of developers are also higher than the past. A person in East China said that the construction parties are not willing to work hard now. They all see the money to enter the materials. In fact, the pressure of the enterprise has been further increased.

In order to help the insurance delivery, some housing companies have also took out practical measures. Taking Sunshine City as an example, the company has set up a "10W+Delivery Special Working Group" to implement a "one -set and one strategy" for projects with risks to make overall scheduling funds to ensure that progress, risks, and wide -impact project payment for project payment, risks, and broad influence projects. At the same time, communicate with suppliers, creditors, project partners, etc. to avoid passive project shutdown; for heavy difficulty projects that have fallen into passive stop work, mix the support of superior resources, and strive to resume the project.

From the data of real estate enterprises, in the first half of the year, Ocean Group completed 38 batches and over 20,000 suites. Among them, 5 batches and over 4000 suits are "paid for the house", and 4 batches and nearly 3,000 suites are delivered in advance. Rongsheng developed 25 projects, 42 batches, totaling 2.4181 million square meters, 20,397 households. Aoyuan realized nearly 13,000 suites in 26 cities, and the delivery area exceeded 1.6 million square meters. At present, most of the large -scale real estate companies attach importance to "insurance delivery". However, in view of the pressure of funds, it is basically impossible to achieve quickly and comprehensively. Taking Evergrande as an example, of the hundreds of projects under the group, some of the re -work have been partially stopped, and the regions with relatively abundant funds are faster. For example, the Guangdong region under the group has a higher resumption rate.

"The project is still bad at the end of the project. In some places, funds are loosened. The money on the account is not only misappropriated, but also owed the supplier's money. If you want to resume work, you must first solve the problem of funds. Unbuttoned land, or projects that have been developed but not sold, but they need to resolve one project and one project, and the speed is difficult to get up fast. "

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