1 euro = 1 dollar!For the first time in 20 years, what does it mean

Reporter Zhao Enting organized

According to data from the European Central Bank, the exchange rate of the Euro to the US dollar on the 11th has dropped from 1 to 1.0163 the previous day to 1 to 1.0098, and this year has fallen by more than 11%. According to data on the European foreign exchange trading market, the exchange rate of the US dollar on the 12th once fell to 1: 1, which is the first time that the euro has been cheap with the US dollar since December 2002. The German "Business Daily" website analyzed that the continued decline in the exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar was related to the stronger of the US dollar, the high inflation of the euro zone, the spread of the European energy crisis, and the rise in European high -liabilities risks under the expected expectations of the European Central Bank. Citi Group's currency analyst Labry predicts that the euro will continue to fall after falling to parity with the US dollar.

On July 12, a man took pictures in front of the euro sculpture of Frankfurt, Germany. (Xinhua News Agency)

[European economy is in trouble]

On the occasion of the US dollar exchange rate to the US dollar, the euro group held a meeting in Brussels, Belgium to focus on discussing the economic status, policy challenges and how to cope with current high inflation in the euro zone in the global context. East Brovskis, Executive Vice Chairman of the European Commission, said that in view of the current uncertainty and risks, economic growth forecasts will be lowered today. He warned that energy prices continued to highly affect other areas of the economy, making inflation more ingrained and universal.

The European Commission is responsible for economic affairs, Moronney, said that the European economy is currently in trouble. The Ukrainian crisis cracks down on economic confidence, pushes high inflation, and causes high uncertainty. He said that the European Union plans to take a series of measures to reduce the inflation pressure caused by natural gas imports.

The chairman of the euro group, Donoho, said that he will be committed to maintaining debt sustainability and long -term growth prospects and avoiding increased inflation pressure. The European Commission also calls on EU member states, especially high -liabilities, to shift from a wide range of stimulus policies to more prudent policies, and adjust policies at any time to adapt to the rapidly changing economic situation.

This is the euro group meeting taken in Brussels, Belgium on July 11. (Xinhua News Agency)

In May of this year, in the EU's economic impact on the EU economic impact, the European Commission reduced the EU's economic growth expectations from 4%to 2.7%in February, and the expected expected economic growth of next year was reduced from 2.8%to 2.3%, and and of 2.3%, and and 2.3%, and and 2.3%, and of 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, and 2.3%, it is also. The EU inflation rate is expected to be 6.8%this year, and it will drop to 3.2%in 2023.

Immediately after, the EU member states 'Economic and Financial Ministers' Meeting was held in Brussels on the 12th, focusing on discussing issues such as EU economic conditions and financial sustainability. The meeting pointed out that due to the surge in energy and commodity prices and the Ukrainian crisis, the EU economy faced uncertainty rising. The proportion of public debt in some EU member states accounted for GDP (GDP), which is still high, which is much higher than the level before the new crown epidemic. Price rise is stressful to actual income. In addition, financing conditions are tightened and exchange rate fluctuations. The meeting urged to be vigilant about the rapid rise of inflation, and to protect the fragile groups through targeted measures to prevent economic degradation through targeted measures.

The meeting pointed out that from the long -term perspective, some member states of the European Union are facing high risk in terms of financial sustainability. High public debt companies will hinder economic growth and have a negative overflow effect in the euro area. In addition, the meeting also approved the provision of 1 billion euros financial assistance to Ukraine with a preferential long -term loan. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the European Union has supported 2.2 billion euros to Ukraine.

This is the European Central Bank Headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany on July 7. (Xinhua News Agency)

[The euro trend reflects the changes in the volume of Europe and the United States]

In 1992, the EU summit signed the "European Union Treaty" in Mastricht, the Netherlands, and decided to implement a single currency euro on January 1, 1999, and implement a unified monetary policy in countries that implement the euro. In 1999, the EU's 11 countries at that time -Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Austria, and Finland -reached the European Economic Economic Integration established by the European Union Treaty The four unified standards of transition to the euro, the euro has become a single currency in the 11 countries.

In January 1999, the euro entered the international financial market and allowed banks and stock exchanges to conduct euro transactions. The euro banknotes and coins have been formally circulated since January 2002. In July of the same year, the local currency of the euro zone members withdrew from circulation, and the euro became the only legal currency in the euro zone.

Greece joined the euro area on January 1, 2001, opening the prelude to the euro area expansion. On January 1, 2007, Slovenia joined; on January 1, 2008, he joined Cyprus and Malta; on January 1, 2009, Slovakia joined; on January 1, 2011, Estonia joined; 2014 and 2015, Latvia and Latvia and 2015 Lithuania has joined. At this point, the member states of the euro zone have increased from the first 11 to 19. On the 12th of this month, the EU member states' Economic and Finance Minister of Economic and Finance approved Croatia to officially join the euro area on January 1, 2023, and the euro zone member states will reach 20.

On July 12, the President of the European Central Bank Ragard, Croatian Deputy Prime Minister and Treasury Secretary March, EU Rotating Chairman Guo Czech Finance Stanjurra, the executive vice chairman of the European Commission East Brutoskis and the European Commission were responsible for the economy The member of the affairs (from left to right) attended the signing ceremony of Croatia's joining the euro zone in Brussels, Belgium. (Xinhua News Agency) At first, the euro performance of the exchange rate of the US dollar was eye -catching, with 1 euro against $ 1.18, but from 2000 to 2002, the euro exchange rate to the US dollar fluctuated significantly. On October 26, 2000 Historical low position, then slowly rebounded, close to a parity level of 1 to 1 on July 15, 2022, and reached 1 euro against 1.04 US dollars at the end of 2022. Since then, the exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar has risen. By 2008, the euro reached a historical high of 1 to 1.6 on April 22 and July 15 of that year.

The 2008 financial crisis and the European debt crisis in 2009 led the euro to enter a period of strong shock, falling to a level of 1 to 1.2 in 2010. According to the "New York Times" euro -to -US dollar exchange rate trend chart, from 2011 to 2015, the exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar fluctuated significantly between 1 to 1.2 and 1.5, and dive again around 2015, down to 1 to 1.1. Although it rose to the level of 1 to 1.2 in 2018, it was affected by factors such as the slow recovery of the new crown epidemic and the post -epidemic era.

The trend of the euro exchange rate to the US dollar also reflects the changes in the comparison of the EU and the United States in terms of economic aggregate. According to the World Bank data, the total economic volume of the European Union in 2008 was about $ 16.3 trillion, surpassing US $ 1.477 trillion. However, in 2021, the EU's economic total economy was about $ 17.09 trillion, and the United States had reached about $ 23 trillion.

On June 15, Fed Chairman Powell attended the press conference. The Fed announced the 75 basis points of interest rate hikes on the same day, which was the Maximum interest rate hike since 1994. (Xinhua News Agency)

[US currency policy and geopolitical impact]

The weak euro exchange rate means that the US dollar has strengthened. As the inflation rate has continued to rise since this year, the consumer price index (CPI) increased since October last year has eight consecutive months higher than 6%. The CPI announced in June rose 8.6%year -on -year, a new high since December 1981. In order to suppress inflation, the Federal Reserve (the Federal Reserve) raised interest rate hikes 25 basis points in March this year. This is the first time that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since December 2018.

With the opening of the interest rate hike cycle, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in early May, it directly raised interest rate hikes in mid -June -this is the Fed's maximum rate of interest rate hikes since 1994. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has reduced the balance sheet of nearly 9 trillion US dollars from June 1.

The Fed's interest rate hikes and "shrinkage" means the return and shortage of the dollar, and the US dollar exchange rate has strong. In addition to the sharp decline in the exchange rate of the euro, the exchange rate of the British pound to the US dollar has recently fallen to £ 1 and $ 1.18, a new low in 27 months. At the same time, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar has also depreciated sharply this year. The exchange rate of the yen to the US dollar has fallen to 1 USD 1 against 137 yen, which is a new low in the past 24 years.

Affected by the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy, the European Central Bank also followed the footsteps of many central banks such as the United Kingdom and Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points -the first interest rate hikes since 2011, and stopped purchasing from net assets from July 1. However, the sharp decline in the exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar has weakened the ability of the European Central Bank to respond to inflation rapidly. With the end of the European Central Bank's debt purchase plan, the national financing costs of the euro zone will rise sharply, and the risk of debt crisis will rise.

This is the "Beixi-1" gas transmission pipe-related facilities taken in Lubming, northern Germany, on July 11. (Xinhua News Agency)

Statistics released by the EU Statistical Bureau on July 1 showed that the energy and food prices in the euro zone continued to soar, with an inflation rate of 8.6%in June, a record high. European Central Bank governor Lagarde said that the current economic activities of the euro zone are affected by many unfavorable factors such as high energy costs, deterioration of trade conditions, and hometown disposable income, which are affected by high inflation, and face greater uncertainty.

Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone. According to the data released by the German Federal Statistics Bureau on the 4th of this month, the first monthly trade deficit in Germany in May since 1991, highlighting the impact of geopolitical turmoil caused by the situation in Ukraine's situation on Germany. Russia has always been an important export market in Germany, but due to Western sanctions, exports have decreased sharply, and energy prices have soared to break the balance of German trade. In May this year, Germany's exports to Russia had decreased by more than 50%year -on -year; in the first five months of this year, Germany's imports from Russia increased by 54.5%year -on -year, and exports to Russia fell by 29.8%.

- END -