No fear of foreign RMB bonds to adjust the position, the Chinese foreign exchange market is running smoothly, and the toughness is significantly enhanced

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Bian Wanli Beijing reported that in recent years, as the bond market has continued to expand, RMB bonds have been included in the major international bond indexes. In addition, RMB bonds are increasing.

However, since February 2022, some foreign investment has continuously reduced holdings of RMB bonds, which has aroused concerns from some market participants. However, from the perspective of relevant financial markets in China, the bond market, foreign exchange market, and stock market have been limited, and the overall operation is maintained smoothly.

Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that the retracement of this wave of foreign RMB bonds is a "big test" for China's overall planning to expand openness and prevent risks, testing the toughness of the Chinese financial market system. In four months, the net outflow of cross -border funds under the securities investment item has a cumulative net outflow of more than 100 billion US dollars, but the impact on the Chinese bond market's exchange market stock market limited, reflecting the economic and market volume advantages of large open economies in anti -external impact risks Essence

Looking forward to the future, the international revenue and expenditure analysis team of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that "the external environment is still complicated and changing, but my country's efficient overall overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, strong economic toughness, sufficient potential, and long -term good fundamentals have not changed. Conditional flow of cross -border funds continues to maintain overall balance, and the RMB exchange rate will continue two -way fluctuations. "

Overall stability in my country's foreign exchange market operation

Since 2022, the world economic growth has slowed down, the tightening process of the Fed's currency has accelerated, and the international financial market has increased. Facing the super -expected changes in the internal and external environment, my country's foreign exchange market is generally stable, reflecting strong toughness.

On the one hand, the two -way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have enhanced, and the global performance is relatively stable. As of July 12, 2022, the US dollar index was affected by factors such as Federal Reserve's currency policy tightening. The RMB exchange rate transaction price (CNY) depreciated 5.4%to 6.7345, with a significant depreciation below the euro (11.9%), the yen (16.1%), and the pound (12.6%); Stablize. Since the second quarter, the RMB exchange rate has shown a two -way fluctuations of the rising and rising. The average daily fluctuation of CNY has reached a record high, and the flexibility has increased significantly.

On the other hand, the international revenue and expenditure structure remains stable. Data show that from January to May, the bank's foreign exchange and sales surplus surplus was US $ 79.2 billion, and the net inflow of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals and other non-bank sectors was 86.2 billion US dollars, which overall continued the high surplus pattern since the second half of 2020. At the same time, from January to May, the net inflow of cross-border funds under the trade of goods was US $ 214.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%. Foreign direct investment maintains the development trend. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, from January to May, the non-financial department actually used foreign capital of 87.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 23%year-on-year, showing the attraction of domestic economic development prospects and market potential to medium- and long-term capital.

Regarding the adjustment of foreign RMB bonds, the relevant financial markets in China are not surprised. Guan Tao analyzed that by the end of May 2022, foreign RMB bonds held 2.63%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the end of January. The main variety of foreign capital reduction was government bonds, policy bank bonds, and interbank deposits. Foreign capital sold 143.4 billion, 183.6 billion and 29.9 billion yuan, respectively, contributed 34.9%, 44.7%, and 7.3%of the total decline. However, the related sub -markets have maintained smooth operation, and the impact of foreign capital reduction is limited.

Guan Tao further stated that from the perspective of the foreign exchange market, bank agents still recorded a total surplus of US $ 27.8 billion; the RMB exchange rate quickly adjusted and stabilized after the rapid decline. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, bank valet involved in foreign countries played normally. From the perspective of the stock market, it has not been affected by the infection effect of foreign capital to reduce the assets of RMB bonds, even if stock assets have more risk asset characteristics.

Data show that since the end of April, A shares have picked up and foreign capital has returned. By June 24, the S & P 500 index fell 5.3%from the end of April. During the same period, Wan De Quan's A index rebounded 14.3%, and the first four months was a cumulative decrease of 22.1%; a total of 79.6 billion yuan was bought under the land stocks items, and the first four months were sold for nets 18 billion yuan.

"After the accumulation of foreign capital inflows to a certain scale, there will be a new normal." In Guan Tao's view, all capital flow shocks start from flowing. Usually, in the early stage, foreign capital flow was attracted for various reasons, and the capital flow was reversed due to the development of the internal and external situations. Many times, capital outflows do not originate from the policy errors of the host country, but are triggered by unprecedented external causes. He pointed out that in reality, there is no such thing as a good thing for foreign capital inflows. Flowing is a simple "two -point method". In this regard, all parties must be mentally prepared. Otherwise, openness is "looking for troubles".

More foundation and conditions to resist external impact risks

Although external instability and uncertain factors still exist, under the comprehensive support of domestic economic fundamentals, stable international revenue and expenditure structures, high levels of financial markets, and mature and rational foreign exchange markets, my country's foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable. The flow of cross -border funds will show a general balance, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates in a two -way between reasonable equilibrium.

The International Revenue and Expenditure Analysis Group of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the restoration of domestic economic fundamentals helps to consolidate the stability of the foreign exchange market; the stable international revenue and expenditure structure can help strengthen the "firewall" of short -term capital flow; Openness helps to enhance the confidence in holding RMB assets in the medium- and long -term of foreign capital. "Practice has once again proved that in the process of expanding financial opening, it is very important to maintain exchange rate flexibility. This helps to release market pressure in time, enhance the autonomy of monetary policy, and reduce the dependence on quantitative intervention." For overseas investors, What is worried about is not the risk of "non -trading" that the exchange rate is rigid.

He further pointed out that whether the inflow of foreign capital inflows promotes the continuous appreciation of the RMB or the recent outflow of foreign capital has led to the rapid return of RMB, China is continuing to promote the facilitation of cross -border trade investment. At the end of last month, the relevant departments simultaneously promoted the opening of the inter -bank and exchange bond markets to the outside world, and introduced a measure to further facilitate the investment in the Chinese bond market and uniformly cross -border management of funds.

Guan Tao said, "I believe that as long as China continues to implement a responsible macroeconomic policy, maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, adhere to the marketization, rule of law, and internationalization of the market of bonds in the domestic bonds, adhere to the opening of institutional financial opening, and give investors to investors Create an increasingly convenient, transparent, and expected market environment.

At the same time, increased depth and maturity of the foreign exchange market can help market behavior more rational and orderly. Under the continuous guidance of the policy, the market subject trading behavior is more rational, and the main participants of foreign exchange markets such as banks and enterprises have gradually adapted to the two -way fluctuation of exchange rates. Corporate exchange rate risks are aware of the neutral awareness. More companies are guided by the stability and sustainability of financial conditions, carefully arranging the currency structure of assets and liabilities, and rationally controlling risks. Data show that in the first five months of 2022, the company's long -term and options handled foreign exchange sets of US $ 656.4 billion, an increase of 42%year -on -year, and the foreign exchange package rate increased by 5.2 percentage points to 27%from 2021.

The International Foreign Exchange Administration's International Revenue and Expenditure Analysis Group stated that in recent years, my country's foreign exchange market has continued to develop and progress, and its toughness has been significantly enhanced, and it has more basic and conditions to resist external impact risks. What's more important is that my country has the unique economic and market volume advantages of large open economies, which helps to consolidate the foundation of maintaining basic stability for a long time.

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