17.9%!China's export growth rate in June exceeds expectations

[Global Times-Global Network Reporter Ni Hao] 17.9%! China's exports exceeded the expectation in June. Earlier, the predictions of domestic and foreign institutions such as Xingye Research, China Gold Macro, and Nomura Securities were 13%, 12.5%, and 7.7%, respectively. The average forecast of the 12 institutions statistics from the Wan De Data Platform for the year -on -year export of China was 12.02%, and the forecast range was 7%to 20%. Reuters' prediction value increased by 12%year -on -year, and imports increased by 3.9%.

On July 13, according to data released by the General Administration of China, the actual growth rate of 17.9%of China's exports in June has significantly exceeded the expectations of most domestic and foreign market institutions.

On July 13, 2022, the container terminal of Lianyungang Port, Jiangsu Province. Picture from IC Photo

The actual growth rate exceeded the market expectations, and this scene was also staged once in May.

In April, China Foreign Trade was temporarily dropped. At that time, domestic and foreign market institutions had lowered foreign trade expectations in May. The medium value of 28 economists in Reuters for May is 8.0%, and the medium -sized value of 8 domestic institutions is 7.7%, and the lowest person gives 3.2%to the same. However, the actual data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that the exports of US dollars increased by 16.9%year -on -year.

In May, the predicted value of market institutions at home and abroad collectively "turning the ship" in front of the actual data released by the General Administration of Customs.

When market institutions re -examined and appreciated the toughness of China's foreign trade, they began to increase their expectations in June. However, 17.9%of the year -on -year increases released on the 13th still exceeded the expectations of most market institutions.

According to the specific data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in June, China's export scale reached 33.126 billion US dollars, a year -on -year increase of 17.9%. It is interesting that this increase was obtained on the basis of high base in June 2021, which is particularly not easy. In June 2021, China's export volume was US $ 281.42 billion, a year -on -year increase of exceeding expectations, as high as 32.2%. It is also much higher than the year -on -year growth rate of 27.9%in May of that year. Earlier, the expected average given by Bloomberg was only 23.1%.

China's import and export maintained a high -level operation trend in June, and the Commerce Department of China's Foreign Trade Department has previously made authoritative predictions. At a press conference held on the afternoon of July 7, a spokesman Shu Jioting said that in the first five months of 2022, in RMB, China's import and exports increased by 8.3%year -on -year. It is expected to remain high in June.

Great Wall Securities also recently stated that in June, the domestic eight major hub port container throughput was 7.7%and 29.5%year -on -year, respectively, which was significantly higher than the same period in May. Based on this, Great Wall Securities expects that China's exports may continue to exceed expectations in June and can maintain double -digit growth.

Li Kuiwen, the director of the Department of Statistics and Statistics of the Customs Department, said at the press conference of the National Office of the National Office on July 13 that the first quarter of China's import and export was stable, and in May and June, the growth rate declined in April. Lay a solid foundation for the overall foreign trade stability and quality.

Screenshot of the National New Office Press Conference

Li Kuiwen said that since May, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is generally better, the effects of various steady growth policies have gradually emerged, and foreign trade enterprises have been promoted in an orderly manner, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The overall growth rate has risen significantly. In addition, in the first half of the year, China imported and exported 2.95 trillion, 2.71 trillion, and 2.47 trillion yuan to ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States, respectively, an increase of 10.6%, 7.5%, and 11.7%, respectively.

Regarding the overall situation of foreign trade, Li Kuiwen said that at present, the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and international environment are becoming more severe and complicated. The development of China's foreign trade still faces some unstable and uncertain factors, and the quality of stability has also faced a lot of pressure. On July 7, Shu Jingsing also said that from the recent investigation of some local, industries and enterprises, the uncertain instability facing China's foreign trade development in the second half of the year has increased, and the situation is still complicated and severe. From the perspective of external demand, affected by geopolitical conflicts and some developed economies accelerated the tightening of monetary policy, the global economic growth rate was slow, and the prospects of trade growth were not optimistic. From a domestic perspective, the base of foreign trade in the second half of the year is significantly increased, the comprehensive cost of enterprises is still high, and it is still difficult to connect orders to the market.

However, Li Kuiwen pointed out that we must also see that China's economic toughness, sufficient potential, and long -term good fundamentals have not changed. With the implementation of the country's policies and measures for the stability of the economy, the resumption of labor and re -production has been promoted in an orderly manner, and China's foreign trade is still expected to continue to maintain steady growth. Shu Jingsing also believes that China's foreign trade achieves a lot of favorable conditions throughout the year: a one of China's foreign trade industry is strong, and the long -term good fundamentals have not changed. The second is that various foreign trade policies will continue to take effect. Various localities further coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, continuously optimize and refine policies and measures, and stimulate the toughness and vitality of the foreign trade industry. Third, the growth momentum of new energy and other industries is good, and it is expected to continue to contribute increment in the second half of the year. (Explanation: If there is no special explanation in the text, the data is denominated in the year -on -year data)

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