The release of foreign trade data in the first half of the year: The growth rate exceeds expectations, this factor becomes the key

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

Today (July 13), a press conference was held at the Journalism Office of the State Council. Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistics, introduced the import and export situation in the first half of 2022, and answered reporters. According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%year -on -year. Among them, exports were 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; imports were 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%(click to view the detailed data).

Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute of International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the Trone Finance and Economics that in general, the overall growth rate of the national foreign trade in the first half of the year has risen significantly, and the long -term good trend has not changed. However Determine factors, "Stable Foreign Trade" measures still have room.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank and Dean of the Research Institute, said that in the case of the recent turn of goods trade in major manufacturing countries in the world, my country still maintains a strong surplus, which fully demonstrates my country's manufacturing competitiveness and global The industrial chain is in a pivotal position.

Order re -production and re -production drive the growth rate significantly to rebound

Data show that in May, the import and export of foreign trade in my country increased by 9.5%year -on -year, the growth rate accelerated by 9.4 percentage points compared with April, and the growth rate in June further increased to 14.3%.

Li Kuiwen, the director of the Minister of Statistics and Statistics of the General Administration of Customs, said that in the first half of the year, the import and export of foreign trade in my country showed strong toughness. In the first quarter, it started steadily. A solid foundation for foreign trade stability and quality throughout the year has laid a solid foundation.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told Fengkou Finance that since this year, my country's foreign trade has been affected most in March and April. It is mainly affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta region, and exports have rarely increased. "In fact, it has not been fully resumed by May, mainly because the whitelist system guarantees that key enterprises will be resumed and re -production, and some backlog orders will be completed." Bai Ming said that the re -production and re -production of foreign trade enterprises in June continued to advance The rapid recovery of imports and exports such as the triangle and other regions has driven the overall growth rate of foreign trade to rise significantly.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank and Dean of the Research Institute, told Fengkou Finance that exports in June increased by 21.4%year -on -year, better than market expectations, and performed strongly. First, the preliminary epidemic affects the export orders that affect the backlog of exports. In particular, the re -production and re -production of the Yangtze River Delta region is promoted in an orderly manner, and the rapid recovery of import and exports has driven the overall growth rate of the country's overall foreign trade. The second is the exchange rate factor. In June this year, the RMB exchange rate remained around 6.7, and the exchange rate of the same period last year was around 6.4. The export growth rate of RMB pricing or accelerated by about 4-5 percentage points due to exchange rate converts. Third, the price factor. Although the price of commodities in the world in June fell high, the prices of the main export order may not be transmitted yet. Compared with the same period last year, there is still a significant difference in differences, supporting the export growth rate.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total imports and exports of three provinces and one city in the three triangle regions were 7.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3%year -on -year. Among them, the import and export in June was 1.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9%year -on -year, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than the overall national growth rate of the same period, and the contribution rate to the growth of national foreign trade was nearly 40%.

In May, imports and exports in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Northern region increased by 4.8%, 2.8%, and 12.2%year -on -year, and the growth rates increased further to 14.9%, 6.4%, and 12.8%in June. Li Kuiwen said that since the beginning of this year, local epidemic conditions have experienced in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Northeast and other places, and foreign trade imports and exports in related regions have fallen, but it is worthy of rapidly overcoming the impact of the epidemic. Turning forward and recovery, while showing the strong toughness of local foreign trade development, it has also effectively maintained the basic market for the steady growth of foreign trade in the country.

In addition, Wen Bin believes that imports in June increased by 5.4%year -on -year, slightly better than market expectations, reflecting that domestic demand is gradually recovering. The main contribution of import growth still comes from energy imports. In the first half of the year, my country's crude oil, natural gas, coal and other energy products imported 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.1%. After removing energy, imports decreased slightly year -on -year, reflecting that domestic demand has increased greatly. space.

Foreign trade stability and quality are faced with a small pressure

Data show that in the first half of the year, the exports of electrical equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles in my country increased by 24.8%, 16.4%, and 51.1%, respectively. The export of labor -intensive products such as textile clothing, plastic products, shoes, etc. 31.4%.

Wen Bin pointed out that due to the poor export and import growth rate, my country's cargo trade surplus was 2.48 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 57.3%year -on -year. In June, the trade surplus of 630 billion yuan, an increase of 94.8%year -on -year. In the case of the recent turn of goods trade in major manufacturing countries in the world, my country still maintains a strong surplus, fully demonstrating my country's manufacturing competitiveness and a pivotal position in the global industrial chain.

Experts said that at present, the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and international environment are becoming more severe and complicated. The development of foreign trade in my country still faces some unstable and uncertain factors.

"After the full resumption of work and re -production, there may not be such backlog orders in the second half of the year. It was over in May and June, so the advantage of order in the second half of the year is not so great." Bai Ming told Fengkou Finance that the Fed's continued interest rate hike may lead to economic recession. It brings adverse effects; in addition, if the epidemic is repeated, it will also have a serious impact on foreign trade import and export. "Many predictions have not considered the epidemic. In fact, no one can predict the situation of the epidemic." Bai Ming said. Zhou Maohua, a researcher at the Financial Marketing Department of Everbright Bank, also believes that foreign trade is also facing a more complex environment, such as: geopolitical conflict, complex supply chain industry chain, energy and commodity prices continue to maintain high, high inflation and developed economy policies have rolled dragging on global demand prospects And exacerbating global foreign exchange market fluctuations.

Give full play to the RCEP role

"At present, the development of foreign trade in my country is facing some unstable and uncertain factors, but there are many favorable factors." Bai Ming told Fengkou Finance that the RMB appreciation momentum is slowing down, international maritime transport prices, and commodity prices fall ... Favorite factors. With the implementation of a policy measure of the state's stability of the economy and the orderly advancement of resumption of labor and resumption, my country's foreign trade is still expected to continue to maintain stable growth.

Since the beginning of this year, the country has introduced a number of policies and measures to promote foreign trade to maintain stability and improve quality, support enterprises to relieve difficulties, and continue to effectively stimulate the vitality of the foreign trade market. In the first half of the year, the number of foreign trade enterprises with imports and exports in my country increased by 5.5%year -on -year.

Zhou Maohua predicts that in the next, domestic will continue to implement the support measures of foreign trade relief before, maintaining stable prices, ensuring that the supply chain of logistics and industrial chains is smooth, providing financial support for foreign trade enterprises, alleviating corporate operating costs and financial pressures; at the same time In order to guide enterprises to regain the neutral exchange rate, steadily promote the use of RMB in international trade, payment and settlement, etc., and effectively reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

Bai Ming said that in addition to the reduction, exemption, slowness, and retreat of foreign trade enterprises, under the influence of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes and Russia -Ukraine conflicts, it is necessary to give full play to the role of RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement) The joint construction of the "Belt and Road" has enabled my country to more effectively integrate into the global industrial chain, supply chain, and value chain, promote industrial transformation and upgrading and high -quality economic development, promote domestic and international dual cycles, and promote the construction of a new development pattern.

Zhou Maohua said that in the second half of the year, it is expected that my country's foreign trade exports will maintain a high growth rate, the imports have accelerated year -on -year, and the trade deficit has narrowed. In terms of exports, although the global demand has slowed down in the second half of the year, and last year, high base factors, from the perspective of major economies, global needs in the second half of the year still expand; my country's foreign trade toughness is sufficient; In the environment, the global demand for foreign trade exports around the world has remained strong. In terms of imports, on the one hand, my country's demand has steadily recovered to drive import demand; on the other hand, comprehensively considering the recent high decline in commodity prices, the decline in the price of commodities helps to reduce the cost of imports in some products in my country, and boost the import demand of some commodities. Essence

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