When the market rebounds, how many opportunities are there in the pharmaceutical sector in the second half of the year?

The healthcare sector has been retracted from the second half of last year and has been retracted for a year. Whether it is a callback force or time, it is rare in the past ten years. The Hang Seng Medical Care Index has reached 50%from the highest point.

Has this wave of medical care sectors reached the bottom range? In the second half of the year, can the "medicine" market be reproduced?

01

In the first half of the ups and downs

In the first half of this year, medical care performance was not satisfactory.

According to Wind data, the healthcare sector ranks 22nd among the first-level industries in the A-share market, and the 19th-level industry in the Hong Kong stock market is ranked 19th. The investment income is -13.08%and -14.11%, respectively. Essence

In the final analysis, the reasons for the recovery of the medical care sector mainly come from two levels: external and internal causes.

On the one hand, from the perspective of external factors, the medical care sector has been severely retracted by the global systemic risk factors.

Affected by the shrinkage of the US -related institutions and interest rate hikes, the risk aversion continued to ferment, the transaction activity decreased, and the performance of American biotechnology companies was poor. According to Bloomberg data, global biotechnology stocks are close to the oversold status, including S & P and Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fall by about 50%and 30%from the peak a year ago. The marketing rate of the technology index is 4.6 times (2 standard deviations between the average of 7.1 times the average of the historical ten years), and the current valuation has entered the bottom interval.

On the other hand, the overseas market disturbance factors (such as rising interest rates) have strengthened the uncertain factors of the external environment, the overall market emotional preferences tend to be cautious, and the pharmaceutical and medical sector is also at the level of oversold (MSCI China Medical Index/Hang Seng Medical Health Care Index from 52 The weekly height fell about 50%/50%, down 30%/46%compared with the NBI index/XBI ETF).

On the other hand, the valuation of the valuation of "digestion digestion+policy expectations of medical care bull markets" has caused the internal reasons for this wave of retracement.

It has been 2-3 years since the start of the first wave of innovation medicines. The market has begun to select the selection of "refined quality innovation" and "import substitution" in the true sense.

02

Go out of "Dark" and regain beauty

Under the resonance of internal and external factors, the entire innovative pharmaceutical industry chain has undergone a negative cycle of "a dark moment" of "decline in stock prices → decline in financing → further decline in financing → further decline in financing."

However, it is gratifying that starting in June this year, as the U.S. stock XBI index leads the stabilization of Nasdaq and the bottom of the Hong Kong stocks Hang Seng Medical Healthcare Index has rebounded, innovative drug financing has also begun to improve marginal improvement and regain the beautiful pattern.

According to Ping An Securities Forecast, the subsequent medical care market may gradually enter the positive cycle of "stock price restoration → financing margin improvement → further bombardment of stock prices → continued improvement of financing".

On the one hand, in terms of external factors, recent economic data may indicate that inflation expects weakening (such as the slowdown in the US PMI growth rate in June, and economic recession is concerned about intensifying), driving the market to re -evaluate the Fed's tightening policy that will continue to radical. According to the forecast of China Merchants Securities, if the market continues to observe the progress of inflation and the expected rate hike rhythm will slow down in 2023, then the biotechnology stocks will strengthen in the second half of 22 years.

At the same time, in many places, the production and re -production began to repair the rebound. Hong Kong stocks Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biological Plates began to improve marginal improvements. The trend of deep V rebounded, with a maximum increase of more than 20%.

03

The second half of the opportunity

Looking forward to the medical and health care sector across the "Dark" moment, the valuation is gradually returning to a relatively reasonable level, and investment opportunities are emerging.

First of all, in the general direction of the policy, the "innovation" idea is "unchanged".

With the return of medicine valuation, the author believes that the performance and valuation matching of the sector can be focused. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the future medical needs will gradually recover, focusing on the main line of "crossing medical insurance".

In the future, the pressure of medical insurance will become the norm, and finding "crossing medical insurance" varieties is the key. Southwest Securities pointed out that in the second half of the year, it can find independent consumer varieties such as Chinese medicine consumer goods, self -funded biopharmaceuticals, medical beauty upstream products, some ophthalmology equipment, and heavy second -class vaccines. At the same time, pharmaceutical and weapon companies are expected to cross the "medical insurance enchantment" through "continuous innovation+internationalization".

04

The excellent index can successfully cross the beef bear

So, in the "change" and "unchanged", is there any main line of investment and cost -effective investment opportunities at the same time? In fact, the answer is very clear, that is, the excellent index can successfully cross the beef and bear.

The inspiration of the experience of benchmarking from the US stock biotechnology sector can be obtained is that the medical and health care sector has long snow and thick snow, and it can always laugh at the end. In the past 15 years, S & P Biotechnology has won the market most of the time, and the highest income has reached 1,031%.

Today, the US stock biotechnology sector has greatly lost the overall market, which is close to the historical pole value. Since U.S. stocks have always been the main target of the Hong Kong stock biotechnology sector, the potential subsequent rebound of U.S. stocks will also guide the emotions of Hong Kong stocks to a certain extent to recover the emotions of Hong Kong stocks. Essence

In this environment, Hang Seng Medical Career Index valuation is more attractive.

Reason 1: The coverage is wider and tracks the frontier of biotechnology.

The Hang Seng Medical Care Index is the index of close tracking the development of the pharmaceutical industry. With the sample space of the Hang Seng Comprehensive Index, 75 stocks that are selected for the main medical care business are selected, and the industry covers medical care equipment, drugs, biotechnology, medical and medical beauty services, etc., to reflect the marketing of the Hong Kong stock market The overall performance of the company. In terms of preparation, the main weight industries of the Hang Seng Medical Care Index are pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical care technology, which is basically the same as the A -share pharmaceutical index industry structure. As of July 12, 22, Hang Seng Medical Care and the distribution of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index industry as a whole, the weight ratio is similar, and can accurately track the development of my country's pharmaceutical industry. Company (such as many excellent Biotech, Biopharma and even Big Pharma).

Reasons 2: High margins, high cost performance, and strong reversal logic at the bottom.

At present, the PB (TTM) of the Hang Seng Medical Health Care Industry is 2.81 times and the sub -point is 36.15%. Below the historical valuation center in the past five years, the valuation is not expensive and the marginal safety is high. In addition, compared with the A -share pharmaceutical index, the Hang Seng Medical Health Care Index has a large retracement in the past six months, and its valuation is strong. Due to the recent resumption of work and reimbursement, the rebound is stronger.

Reason three: The growth rate of performance is higher, and the upward is elastic.

According to Puyin International forecast, it is promoted by the following factors: (1) With the opening of the Hong Kong stocks 18A and the Shanghai Science and Technology Board, more and more companies with strong innovation and high performance growth have been successfully listed in the past three years and promoted the sector to promote the sector The overall profit expectations are raised; (2) the promotion of innovation pipelines of the original pharmaceutical and device enterprises and consumer medical companies benefit from domestic consumption upgrades, and profit growth is expected to accelerate further. As a Hang Seng Medical Healthcare Index, which includes many innovative capabilities and high performance growth, it is expected to show full elasticity in the repair market.

It is worth noting that the ETF in the market, as the only ETF target to track the Hang Seng Medical Healthcare Index in the market, can "one -click the core assets of Hong Kong stock pharmaceuticals." As early as May, Boshi Hang Seng Medical Care ETF has exceeded the rhythm of the market rebound, taking the lead in opening the valuation repair market, and greatly winning the Hang Seng Index performance during the same period.

05

summary

Lu You once wrote in "Youshan West Village": "There is no way for the mountains and water to be doubtful, and there is another village of Liu Dark Huaming."

If the medical care sector in the first half of the year has made many investors "suspicious", then this wave of rebound in the second half of the year seems to be "Liu An Hua Ming" and turns.

As said in Tianfeng Securities, "in fact, the pessimistic expectations of policies and fundamentals have basically reflected in the stock price. Active marginal changes are guiding the pharmaceutical sector out of the bottom area. At present, it is the time at the bottom of the strategic layout pharmaceutical sector. "

From the perspective of the time, the Chinese biotechnology industry as a whole is still in the early stage of development. As the most direct beneficiary of domestic pharmaceutical policy dividends and huge uncomfortable clinical needs, the medical care industry is still a huge capacity within a long time range. The blue ocean that can be allowed to be blooming, among them, excellent companies are also expected to get out of the trend of ten years.

What you can do as investors is to find excellent targets, cross bulls, and wait for flowers.

Article Source: Gelonghui APP

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